ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Evil Jeremy]

Holy crap.

Its only June 12. The season is only 12 days old, and we have a developing Cape Verde system. Waves have made it off the coast, organized and intense, and have not been dissipating as they have in the past, and now one of them is forming. This is downright scary regarding the rest of our season. Stap in fellas, its going to be a bumpy ride.

This will easily be code orange at 2 AM. My guess is 40%, maybe higher in the morning when there are good visible images. Still though, this is looking more and more like Alex with each passing hour.

[rockyman]

This image is a few hours old, but it shows that this is a HUGE system:



by the way, it's good to see everyone back again! I live a few feet away from the Gulf of Mexico, so I'll be around to provide pictures of any tropical system-oil spill horrors that might await us on the north central Gulf Coast!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SFLcane]

Here you can get a good crasp how large this wave is on this 4km IR loop. 4hr loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/satellite/ETropical4kmIR.html

[alan1961]

I am going to say that after seeing the last few hours of images,at the 2 AM TWO,they will increase the % to 50 and the color will be orange. What do the peeps think?

Alex(ander) the great by tomorrow

[HurricaneJoe22]

I think given where the storm is and the time of year, the NHC will stay conservative and keep it a yellow tonight and maybe bump up the percentage to 30. I think maybe after visibles in the morning and if it maintains convection and shows more organization, then a good chance at a bump to code orange. I'm not gonna get too excited over this one, but I'm glad it's looking interesting to break the boredom.

[ronjon]

Here you can get a good crasp how large this wave is on this 4km IR loop. 4hr loop

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/satellite/ETropical4kmIR.html

God that things a monster! I think there's little doubt this will be Alex given the model support, very good upper level conditions the next 72 hrs, warm SSTs, and the sheer size of this system.

[canetracker]

I am going to say that after seeing the last few hours of images,at the 2 AM TWO,they will increase the % to 50 and the color will be orange. What do the peeps think?

Alex(ander) the great by tomorrow

I am thinking code orange too.

[wxman57]

All I can see for now is a little mid-level rotation. I don't think there's any LLC. That could come if thunderstorms persist over the same area tonight and tomorrow. T-numbers would be not be of much value at this point. Well, time for bed.

[canetracker]

All I can see for now is a little mid-level rotation. I don't think there's any LLC. That could come if thunderstorms persist over the same area tonight and tomorrow. T-numbers would be not be of much value at this point. Well, time for bed.

Thanks for the educated input. : ) Love reading your posts.

[HURAKAN]

Persistance is the key. If tomorrow it's looking this good, then I would worry about it. Right now, it's nice to see something out there but I would like to see persistance.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00z surface analysis from TAFB. Has the low moving WNW and pressure going down from the 1012 mbs.

[HURAKAN]

Nice sat view

[hockeytim19]

An interesting note: At 7.2 N, Isadore in 1990 formed at the lowest-latitude for any storm in the North Atlantic. 92L could make a run at that record

[hockeytim19]

...and the amazing thing is that Isadore formed in September... not the first half of JUNE!

An interesting note: At 7.2 N, Isadore in 1990 formed at the lowest-latitude for any storm in the North Atlantic. 92L could make a run at that record

[cycloneye]

Nice loop.

[RL3AO]

Its around 5N plus its June 12th. I'd be truly shocked if this is even close to TD status in 72 hours.

[TexasF6]

It looks quite angry in the rainbow loop....fascinating....

[frederic79]

If this system is indicative of what's to come, then climotology doesn't mean alot this year. Does anyone know when the last time a Cape Verde system showed up in June, much less early June? This is always home-grown month or less. Wow, it feels like August both literally and figuratively!

[curtadams]

I'm actually pretty bearish on this system. Big systems develop s - l - o - w - l - y. Low latitude will probably slow it more. Finally, without quickscat or recon, and with dim long-term prospects due to shear ahead, the NHC is really going to drag its feet about naming anything that does show up.