ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[Evil Jeremy]

Notice on the HWRF for the 18Z it seems to turn to the W at the end. That leads me to belive it is possible for it to turn to the east coast and strengthen.

There is still a lot of distance between the end of the HWRF run and the East Coast, and lots of time, shown in the model and post-run for something to happen to the system. Incredibly early to start calling landfalls on the mainland.

[vbhoutex]

Notice on the HWRF for the 18Z it seems to turn to the W at the end. That leads me to belive it is possible for it to turn to the east coast and strengthen.

What is your meteorological reasoning for this? What you have stated here is not meteorological reasoning. As the previous admin stated "We don't encourage baseless predictions around here". I'll state it another way. We don't allow baseless predictions here at STORM2K.

[cycloneye]

The 00z GFS does not develop 92L as you can see in this 72 hour loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[blp]

00Z Nogaps much more bullish and holds onto it throughout the forecast period.



Loop
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[KWT]

The GFDL is less agressive on its 0z run, though it does still develop a weak closed system its a little further to the south then it was before.

Still this sort of system and the track is what I'm worried about for a system later in the season, esp if they don't develop quite so far east.

[ronjon]

Looks like a weaker system predicted by the latest models but most do show a closed circulation and at least depression or storm status over the next few days. Track seems to have shifted slightly southward with the system close to the NE caribbean in 5 days.

Latest 00Z Model Runs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010061300-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2010061300-invest92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010061300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2010061300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[KWT]

Yeah those are somewhat more realistic, I suspect we do have a shot at something developing, the models seem to develop something weakly, perhaps borderline TS before it moves the system towards the higher shear.

That being said the GFDL looks a good deal too far north too early, probably on the assumption its already a developed circulation, which probably isn't quite the case.

[cycloneye]

12z BAMS

X01 KWBC 131257
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1257 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100613 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100613 1200 100614 0000 100614 1200 100615 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.7N 33.6W 8.0N 35.6W 9.2N 37.7W 10.2N 39.8W
BAMD 6.7N 33.6W 7.8N 36.0W 8.9N 38.4W 10.1N 40.7W
BAMM 6.7N 33.6W 7.8N 36.0W 9.0N 38.3W 10.1N 40.4W
LBAR 6.7N 33.6W 7.6N 35.9W 8.7N 38.7W 10.2N 41.8W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 39KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 39KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100615 1200 100616 1200 100617 1200 100618 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 42.2W 12.7N 47.2W 14.2N 51.9W 15.3N 56.7W
BAMD 11.0N 42.9W 12.8N 47.1W 14.0N 50.2W 14.5N 53.2W
BAMM 10.9N 42.6W 12.2N 47.2W 13.5N 51.6W 13.9N 55.8W
LBAR 11.5N 44.8W 14.9N 49.6W 18.5N 51.1W 21.2N 50.4W
SHIP 56KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS
DSHP 56KTS 64KTS 63KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.7N LONCUR = 33.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 6.4N LONM12 = 31.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 30.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

SHIP 12z imput shows moderate shear after 72 hours.Also the Rapid Intensification data at the bottom of this shows 72% of doing that.

Code: Select all

             *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL922010  06/13/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    23    27    33    39    49    56    62    64    64    63    62    60
V (KT) LAND       20    23    27    33    39    49    56    62    64    64    63    62    60
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    23    25    28    34    41    47    51    53    52    52    52

SHEAR (KT)         5     7     7     8     7     6     3    11    13    19    17    15    17
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     0    -2    -4    -3     4    -2     0    -6    -4    -1     3
SHEAR DIR         54    95    52    20    27   180   201   204   254   258   293   248   257
SST (C)         28.4  28.1  27.9  27.7  27.6  27.3  27.5  27.9  28.2  28.1  28.3  28.6  28.8
POT. INT. (KT)   143   139   137   134   132   128   131   136   140   139   141   145   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   148   146   142   138   135   128   131   136   140   137   138   143   146
200 MB T (C)   -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     8     9    10     9    10     9    10     9
700-500 MB RH     80    76    76    76    74    68    62    59    57    56    55    54    57
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     8     7     7     7     6     6     5     4     3     3     3     2
850 MB ENV VOR    21    15    11     2     0    -7   -18   -25   -16   -20   -16   -11    -1
200 MB DIV       129   144   141   126   102    90    46    25    -6    -8   -12    -3    25
LAND (KM)       1281  1267  1269  1294  1335  1362  1216  1096   993   944   905   869   661
LAT (DEG N)      6.7   7.3   7.8   8.4   9.0  10.1  10.9  11.6  12.2  13.0  13.5  13.8  13.9
LONG(DEG W)     33.6  34.8  36.0  37.2  38.3  40.4  42.6  44.9  47.2  49.5  51.6  53.6  55.8
STM SPEED (KT)    11    13    13    13    12    11    12    12    12    11    10    10    11
HEAT CONTENT      41    37    37    34    32    22    27    45    58    57    59    70    86

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  9      CX,CY:  -8/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  588  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  94.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   6.  12.  20.  26.  31.  34.  37.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.  10.  11.  10.   8.   6.   6.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   3.   2.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -7.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   8.   8.   7.   5.   4.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   7.  13.  19.  29.  36.  42.  44.  44.  43.  42.  40.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010     INVEST 06/13/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.7 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 128.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 121.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.7
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  82.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  11.2 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  36.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    72% is   5.7 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    62% is   7.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    43% is   9.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    19% is   5.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010     INVEST 06/13/2010  00 UTC **
TIME        0-12h   0-24h   0-36h   0-48h       EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB  (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY


[cycloneye]

Updated 12z run of the BAMMS.

WHXX01 KWBC 131337
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1337 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100613 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100613 1200 100614 0000 100614 1200 100615 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.7N 34.2W 7.8N 36.1W 8.9N 38.2W 9.9N 40.3W
BAMD 6.7N 34.2W 7.7N 36.7W 8.7N 39.2W 9.8N 41.5W
BAMM 6.7N 34.2W 7.8N 36.5W 8.9N 38.8W 10.0N 40.9W
LBAR 6.7N 34.2W 7.5N 36.7W 8.6N 39.6W 10.1N 42.8W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 55KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100615 1200 100616 1200 100617 1200 100618 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 42.7W 12.1N 47.6W 13.5N 52.3W 14.5N 56.9W
BAMD 10.8N 43.7W 12.6N 48.0W 13.8N 51.2W 14.3N 54.3W
BAMM 10.8N 43.0W 12.1N 47.7W 13.3N 52.2W 13.8N 56.5W
LBAR 11.4N 45.9W 14.9N 50.6W 18.5N 52.4W 21.2N 51.8W
SHIP 62KTS 69KTS 68KTS 64KTS
DSHP 62KTS 69KTS 68KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.7N LONCUR = 34.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 6.4N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 6.2N LONM24 = 30.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[KWT]

I think those runs from the SHIPS are way too agressive, conditions really aren't going to favourable enough post say 48-60hrs for any real development.

I'd also suspect for now it will track to the left of the models track.

[HURAKAN]

Consensus

[Frank2]

Per the last southward plot, that would indicate weakening...

[KWT]

Not sure what you mean by that Frank?

Anyway not really a difficult for the models to call this one simply because its deep location really and the fact steering currents are not going to change too much, at least not for systems that deep in the tropics. The only uncertainty is whether the shear is being overdone or not by the models, but no reason to doubt them given there clearly is a lot of shear to the WNW of this system and it seems like 92L will core punch the jet streak at some point in the near future.

[shah8]

cmc 12z looks to be pretty aggressive.

[cycloneye]

cmc 12z looks to be pretty aggressive.

Quite agressive. Tracks towards Hispanola at the end.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

12 Nogaps is quite aggressive as well

[Frank2]

Not sure what you mean by that Frank?

KWT,

Gil Clark (retired NHC hurricane specialist) once mentioned to me that southward-moving (or southward turning) tropical systems (in the northern hemisphere) usually (but not always) indicates weakening...

That last consensus plot does makes sense in this case, since the upper level winds in that area are still unfavorable for development, though as you said earlier this disturbance does seem to have a window for some development...

Given the oil spill - yipes - an active season in this part of the world would be incredibly bad news, so hoping and praying for the best...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Honestly,I am waiting for the system to be classified to then look at the models more closely as it will be better for them to get the data with a TC in their hands.

[Blown Away]

Honestly,I am waiting for the system to be classified to then look at the models more closely as it will be better for them to get the data with a TC in their hands.

Yep, I agree especially since this system will be heading in your general direction! I don't see anything that will influence this system to go N of the islands!