ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[tolakram]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hello fellow storm chasers

I have been lurking in this forums since 2004 but never commented. I decided to do so now because I have been obsessed with this storm since it came out of the African continent. Anyways, I have really enjoyed the forums for the past couple of years and hope to continue doing so for many more seasons to come.

By the way wxman57, Im a fan I have learned lots from your discussions.

Welcome! Saw my invatation eg?

Anyway..do you have any questions?

[KWT]

Wow, shouldn't the Cape Verde season start a little later. I'd like to see that second wave emerge from the coast as it could fizzle out. Any info on the SAL this year?

Well a July CV storm is rare, so to get one in June is very exceptional, there probably have been a few in the past but due to the lack of data before 1960s we probably didn't know they were there, esp if they were short lived...but they are still exceedingly rare.

[jinftl]

Amazing.....excerpt from Dr. Masters:

However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) underneath 92L are an extremely high 28 - 30°C, which is warmer than the temperatures reached during the peak of hurricane season last year, in August - September.

In fact, with summer not even here, and three more months of heating remaining until we reach peak SSTs in the Atlantic, ocean temperatures across the entire Caribbean and waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles are about the same as they were during the peak week for water temperatures in 2009 (mid-September.)

First tropical depression of the season may form from 92L
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Gosh, remember last year, well into late July and even early August how we looked into the Atlantic and how void it was of convection due to all of the dry air? I remember that as if it were yesterday... Wow, what a difference a year makes and in June even.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks for sharing that jinftl. That is pretty incredible and yet very scary at the same time. That's an amazing stat!

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

It has gained some latitude.

AL, 92, 2010061400, , BEST, 0, 84N, 376W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[rd261]

Hello fellow storm chasers

I have been lurking in this forums since 2004 but never commented. I decided to do so now because I have been obsessed with this storm since it came out of the African continent. Anyways, I have really enjoyed the forums for the past couple of years and hope to continue doing so for many more seasons to come.

By the way wxman57, Im a fan I have learned lots from your discussions.

Welcome! Saw my invatation eg?

Anyway..do you have any questions?

Thanks for the welcoming. Yes your invitation convinced me to do it.

[randge]

Big time lurker. Last time I posted was during Ike when I was glued to Storm2K.

This forum is a fantastic resource. I'm learning a lot about weather and in particular a lot about those danged tropical storms!

We're watching the tropics here on the Gulf with an even more watchful eye this season because of this huge oil spill off LA.

[hurricaneCW]

It has an impressive structure but it's quite limited convection wise. I think we'll at least get a depression but i have my doubts about getting Alex. Despite several favorable factors coming together, it's still a large elongated system that will be encountering very hostile conditions in a few days especially as it gains latitude.

On a side note, the SST's are ridiculous and continue to rise daily. Do any of the experts on here think the waters off my coast (new jersey) could get up to 80F or higher.

[Ivanhater]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hello fellow storm chasers

I have been lurking in this forums since 2004 but never commented. I decided to do so now because I have been obsessed with this storm since it came out of the African continent. Anyways, I have really enjoyed the forums for the past couple of years and hope to continue doing so for many more seasons to come.

By the way wxman57, Im a fan I have learned lots from your discussions.

Welcome! Saw my invatation eg?

Anyway..do you have any questions?

Thanks for the welcoming. Yes your invitation convinced me to do it.

Lol. Your welcome. Whats your call on the system?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to the AVN forecasting model shear wont be much of a problem within the next 72 hours...

[hockeytim19]

Lurker for awhile, poster starting this year... I've been following storms for 20 years since I was 10 years old... and if history is any indication (especially in recent years) the NHC will drag it's feet on upgrading... especially this early and this far out. Shocked if this is TD1 by 5am. I suspect they'll let it ride through most of the day tomorrow and upgrade in the evening (5pm or 11pm) if warranted.

[psyclone]

I've been watching 92L develop with a simultaneous sense of intrigue and trepidation. even if this system is briefly named and then falls apart, the fact that it formed at that latitude and this time of year serves as the tropical equivalent of a canary in a coal mine. I think this duck is about to quack.

[rd261]

It certainly has an impressive structure, and more impressive still is the fact that it has been a pretty consistent storm. However, I do have my doubts on development due to being so early in the season. I believe it may reach tropical storm status but eventually it will run into not so favorable conditions as it gains latitude and development will at least slow down. But then again this is mother nature we are talking about and anything its possible.

[NOLA2010]

First time poster, but been lurking around for a while and finally decided to join after the invite to the guests from Hurricane Andrew. I have been following 92L since it started and i doubted it at first, but now i am not sure. I think we have TD 1 on our hands but not sure about TS Alex. But we will see!

anyways thanks and this is a great and informative site. keep up the good work.

[KWT]

00 UTC Best Track

It has gained some latitude.

AL, 92, 2010061400, , BEST, 0, 84N, 376W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Probably pulling away from the ITCZ, so it'll likely gain more lattiude as well soon, which gets it closer to the jet core.

Wouldn't surprise me to see this one be a possible threat down the line, but its going to have to survive the shear that is currently still to the north of the system first.

[Hurricane Andrew]

First time poster, but been lurking around for a while and finally decided to join after the invite to the guests from Hurricane Andrew. I have been following 92L since it started and i doubted it at first, but now i am not sure. I think we have TD 1 on our hands but not sure about TS Alex. But we will see!

anyways thanks and this is a great and informative site. keep up the good work.

Welcome to Storm2K!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Saying again.

You 118 guests out there. COme and join us! You know you want to!