ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[KWT]

The GFS 18z gives the system a little longer in the lower shear before the system probably moves into the jet core.

More then enough time for us to get a TD/TS from this system in this case. Beyond that and the shear lowers again above 20-25N, so we probably will need to watch this for some time yet...

[Ivanhater]

The GFS 18z gives the system a little longer in the lower shear before the system probably moves into the jet core.

More then enough time for us to get a TD/TS from this system in this case. Beyond that and the shear lowers again above 20-25N, so we probably will need to watch this for some time yet...

GFS has done horribly with this system so far, but I would look at the upper levels to see whats going on.

18z Nogaps to keep in the records

[cycloneye]

For information only about the 00 UTC BAMMS.

WHXX01 KWBC 140030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC MON JUN 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100614 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100614 0000 100614 1200 100615 0000 100615 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.4N 37.6W 9.5N 39.9W 10.4N 42.3W 10.9N 45.2W
BAMD 8.4N 37.6W 9.4N 40.4W 10.3N 43.0W 11.2N 45.4W
BAMM 8.4N 37.6W 9.4N 40.2W 10.3N 42.4W 11.1N 44.7W
LBAR 8.4N 37.6W 9.8N 40.3W 11.6N 43.3W 13.1N 46.0W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100616 0000 100617 0000 100618 0000 100619 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 48.1W 12.1N 53.6W 13.0N 58.7W 13.9N 64.2W
BAMD 12.0N 47.6W 13.4N 51.2W 14.1N 54.6W 14.5N 58.0W
BAMM 11.9N 47.0W 13.0N 51.8W 13.7N 56.3W 14.3N 60.9W
LBAR 14.8N 48.3W 18.3N 51.2W 21.1N 51.7W 22.1N 51.6W
SHIP 51KTS 53KTS 51KTS 46KTS
DSHP 51KTS 53KTS 51KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.4N LONCUR = 37.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 7.1N LONM12 = 34.9W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.4N LONM24 = 32.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Nimbus]

Depends somewhat on where they initialize the center. If the BAMS is not a dynamic model it won't adjust for weaker than expected shear.

[StarmanHDB]

I just openly asked Dr. Knabb on Facebook the following question and I'll love to read any responses on here too!

....If 92L develops, based on its current track, what are its chances of passing through the eastern Hebert Box and, based on current models, what would that mean to South Floridians? Looking forward to your response.

[tolakram]

I just openly asked Dr. Knabb on Facebook the following question and I'll love to read any responses on here too!

....If 92L develops, based on its current track, what are its chances of passing through the eastern Hebert Box and, based on current models, what would that mean to South Floridians? Looking forward to your response.

Common mistake though.

Storms hitting Florida always pass through the box. Storms passing through the box do not always hit Florida.

[KWT]

If it takes the northerly track it may well get shear quicker, but its also going tohave a better chance to punch the jet streak and emerge into the much lower shear that is progged to remain to the north of the Caribbean.

[StarmanHDB]

I just openly asked Dr. Knabb on Facebook the following question and I'll love to read any responses on here too!

....If 92L develops, based on its current track, what are its chances of passing through the eastern Hebert Box and, based on current models, what would that mean to South Floridians? Looking forward to your response.

Common mistake though.

Storms hitting Florida always pass through the box. Storms passing through the box do not always hit Florida.

Oh, joy!

[Blown Away]

If it takes the northerly track it may well get shear quicker, but its also going tohave a better chance to punch the jet streak and emerge into the much lower shear that is progged to remain to the north of the Caribbean.

I agree, if 92L shoots through the NE Caribbean N of PR it will take the path of least shear and after that not sure what will steer 92L ?

[KWT]

Well looks like at least some sort of high could develop for a brief while which would shunt it back westwards...after and it really is anyones guess, I'd like to see the track motion for this thing once it has a proper LLC circulation before getting too interested in the longer term.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thought I'd post this here, since the 92L model thread is a tad more hard core thread just now, and see what you seasoned watchers think of this comment, gleaned during this site's downtime. I know satellite views started in the 1970's I think, but still it's worth pondering:


"As an aside, I've checked records back to 1851 for all systems within 100 statute miles of ~10N, ~37.5W. I found no systems within at least 100 miles of 92L's likely position. Thus, with development becoming increasingly probable, 92L will likely become the easternmost TS to ever form in the Atlantic in June since records began more than 100 years ago."

from snowflake22 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=232206&st=560

[KWT]

Whilst perhaps a touch off topic, I'm willing to bet that hurricane 2 of late June 1933 probably also formed quite far east given it was a decent TS coming into the Trinidad and Tobago region...of course what an amazing season that turned out to be...

I'm fully expecting to wake up and see this very close to TD status in another 6-8hrs or so...

12z ECM wasn't quite as keen with building in a high pressure cell between 144-168hrs into the W.Atlantic as the GFS was.

[jinftl]

Important to keep in mind the intensity models as much as the track models....most models currently show anything that may develop remaining fairly weak (ts at most)....and with some models suggesting dissipation down the road. A Cape Verde system developing in mid-June is an outlier event...there is no indication that this system won't have to struggle to stay alive (after reason would suggest this shouldn't have even developed in the first place).

[Blown Away]

TAFB calling for "Possible Tropical Cyclone" through 48 hours and then loses it at 72 hours.
24 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
48 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
72 hours: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[gatorcane]

Surprised nobody has posted the UKMET model. It's a pretty good model for forecasting cylogensis. Here we are at 72 hours. It actually shows that the swath of shear extending over the Leewards out through 50W weakening somewhat despite all other models I have looked at which show it remaining quite strong for 92L:

[Gustywind]

so that's not good news for all Carib islanders Gatorcane!

[boca]

Surprised nobody has posted the UKMET model. It's a pretty good model for forecasting cylogensis. Here we are at 72 hours. It actually shows that the swath of shear extending over the Leewards out through 50W weakening somewhat despite all other models I have looked at which show it remaining quite strong for 92L:

I also noted on that map another 1014 low ESE of 92L.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian...Caribbean cruiser



Btw, does anyone have the link to the long range Candian that goes out to 240 hours?

[Ivanhater]

Long range Canadian has Alex approaching South Florida/Florida straits

[shah8]

gfs and gfdl 00z looks wierd.

Everything showing big, bad, 'n nasty pacific storm coming...