ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[IamKelleyP]

even if this system is briefly named and then falls apart, the fact that it formed at that latitude and this time of year serves as the tropical equivalent of a canary in a coal mine. I think this duck is about to quack.

This is my fear too!

[KWT]

It certainly has an impressive structure, and more impressive still is the fact that it has been a pretty consistent storm. However, I do have my doubts on development due to being so early in the season.
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Yep thats quite understandable, but really the conditions out in the MDR zone right now below say 13-15N are pretty exceptional for the time of year and certainly are a long way in advance of what you'd normally find in a typical June.

[jinftl]

Completely agree....if we see systems in the deep tropics having the ability to slowly organize when climatology says it is too soon to be looking that far east in the Atlantic, that would seem to indicate that all the talk of a busy season, of conditions being much more favorable overall than last season, etc, is not off base at all.

If we can see a td develop by mid-June with less struggle than systems saw in the same region last September, that says alot. Will this system be an Ivan...doubtful....but what is coming down the pike in 8 or 12 weeks if this is what we see now?

I've been watching 92L develop with a simultaneous sense of intrigue and trepidation. even if this system is briefly named and then falls apart, the fact that it formed at that latitude and this time of year serves as the tropical equivalent of a canary in a coal mine. I think this duck is about to quack.

[Ivanhater]

Thanks for the invitations but let's not clog up this thread with it. Users are trying to get important information about this system. There is a specific thread for inviting new people.

[ozonepete]

Hello fellow storm chasers

I have been lurking in this forums since 2004 but never commented. I decided to do so now because I have been obsessed with this storm since it came out of the African continent. Anyways, I have really enjoyed the forums for the past couple of years and hope to continue doing so for many more seasons to come.

By the way wxman57, Im a fan I have learned lots from your discussions.

Welcome, rd!

[Hurricane Andrew]

I agree with duck quack post.

[ozonepete]

First time poster, but been lurking around for a while and finally decided to join after the invite to the guests from Hurricane Andrew. I have been following 92L since it started and i doubted it at first, but now i am not sure. I think we have TD 1 on our hands but not sure about TS Alex. But we will see!

anyways thanks and this is a great and informative site. keep up the good work.

Welcome to storm2k. You can learn a lot here and the people are great. Have fun.

[hurricaneCW]

The thing is we could have a hyperactive season but have it be deemed a quite season. If we get a lot of storms that develop out of these African waves, they will most likely develop quickly due to very favorable conditions expected, gain latitude, and curve out to sea. I think we may see a season like 1995, very active but a lot of recurves.

I don't think we will see as many landfalls as JB predicts and definitely not as many as in 2005. This wave may be a precursor to a very active hurricane season but it may also be a precursor to a lot of out to sea storms.

[sponger]

Welocme back everyone! Being such a large circulation, if this gets 3 days under favorable conditions it may take alot of adversity later to wind this down. The more latitude it gains the worst later conditions will be. Odds are against it but I remember 2004 storms surviving everthing that was thrown at them. Its going to be one hell of a season!

[cycloneye]

In case anyone missed it,here is the video that Joe Bastardi made this afternoon about 92L.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp

[gatorcane]

Well I have to admit, quite a system here. Is it Jun 13th or Sept 13? Anyway, I see shear strong shear out ahead of it around 50W from the TUTT axis. I think it is going to hit this shear and get ripped apart. GFS still doesn't like this system as do most models. I will go with the model consensus and call for it to open back up into a wave in the long-term. Until it hits the shear I must say it may become a name system. But probably won't be a named system for very long though.

[sponger]

The thing is we could have a hyperactive season but have it be deemed a quite season. If we get a lot of storms that develop out of these African waves, they will most likely develop quickly due to very favorable conditions expected, gain latitude, and curve out to sea. I think we may see a season like 1995, very active but a lot of recurves.

I don't think we will see as many landfalls as JB predicts and definitely not as many as in 2005. This wave may be a precursor to a very active hurricane season but it may also be a precursor to a lot of out to sea storms.

1995 was a fantastic season, for surfers and coastal dwellers. Lots of action and very little damage. I believe it was Eduardo, felix and gustav? Lots of swell and little damage. Lets all pray all this heat gets moved through the central Atlantic and not The Gulf and Eastern Seabord.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, I'm amazed at all these new people joining! I don't even think I ever remember this many new folks ever posting the same day. This is great! Welcome aboard all!!!!!


Now back to Invest 92L
I think it will still make it to depression status before the shear shreds it, but the organization should be slow based on the current convection activity,
and also because of the broad nature of it.

[vbhoutex]

I have noticed quite a few people calling for Invest 92L to become a TD or TS by this time or that time. While this is obviously a possibility we must ask that when one is posting something like this that you back your post up with some sound meteorological reasoning. Just stating that you think it will happen is not sound meteorological reasoning. Neither is just saying I agree with the previous post. If this type of posting continues, which I tend to define as -removed- staff will begin to give out warnings and or suspensions as warranted. THIS IS THE ONLY WARNING THAT WILL BE POSTED ABOUT THIS.
We are not trying to stifle discussion. We are trying to encourage it. But we want the discussions to have some merit behind the "forecast".

[Blown Away]

Well I have to admit, quite a system here. Is it Jun 13th or Sept 13? Anyway, I see shear strong shear out ahead of it around 50W from the TUTT axis. I still think it is going to hit this shear and get ripped apart. GFS still doesn't like this system as do most models. I will go with the model consensus. I still will go with this forecast, however, until it hits the shear I must say it may become a name system. But probably won't be a named system for very long with the shear.

92L is looking great rate now and that shear is days a way and as KWT said it could punch through and emerge in a low shear environment depending on the track 92L takes.

[KWT]

Well I have to admit, quite a system here. Is it Jun 13th or Sept 13? Anyway, I see shear strong shear out ahead of it around 50W from the TUTT axis. I think it is going to hit this shear and get ripped apart. GFS still doesn't like this system as do most models. I will go with the model consensus and call for it to open back up into a wave in the long-term. Until it hits the shear I must say it may become a name system. But probably won't be a named system for very long though.

Yes that would be my call as well, the shear is still pretty hefty to the north of the system and its going to have to punch that shear to get to the other side one way or the other eventually. As I've said before if it can get far enough north it could well enter a more condusive region for development near the Bahamas region and into the E.Gulf...BUT that is a very long time away yet and there is a lot more to see before we get to that stage thankfully.

[rd261]

It certainly has an impressive structure, and more impressive still is the fact that it has been a pretty consistent storm. However, I do have my doubts on development due to being so early in the season.
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Yep thats quite understandable, but really the conditions out in the MDR zone right now below say 13-15N are pretty exceptional for the time of year and certainly are a long way in advance of what you'd normally find in a typical June.

Very true. We just need some more convection over the center and then the NHC will have to upgrade this baby at least to a TD.

[Recurve]

If there's something there to steer soon, steerings winds (UW charts) seem to not indicate any or much northward potential in the lower winds, not counting normal poleward tendency.



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My impression from charts showing strong shear above 20N east of about 45W that a developing system wouldn't survive up there. KWT I believe pointed out there is a real jet streak in that area.

As others have said too, despite the impressive pinwheel banding, there isn't a lot of strong convection and not much over the center (last I looked). Still TPC sees good moisture in place and the typical but early "favorable conditions" continuing for a while.

I make no predictions. Things I'm sure will develop go poof, and little blobs I write off end up strengthening. That's why I'm an amateur and let the pros say what they see coming.

Never a bad time to check your kit, with likely more than 10 days or longer for everyone -- except maybe the Lesser Antilles.

[Recurve]

Some sheer increase in last 24 hours out ahead. This is latest sheer tendency I found (6/14 000z)



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[ronjon]

Actually looks like heavy convection is building just north of the center. Probably a depression by tomorrow. Models have trended further south with the eventual track with a caribbean threat likely although the high shear should weaken it significantly by then. Interestingly, SHIPS only shows 15-20 kts of shear after 3 days with less than 10 kts over the next 60 hours.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/satellite/ETropical4kmIR.html