New wave coming off Africa

[boca]

This wave looks pretty intense too. Alot of reds on the sat pic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree Boca. I'm personally flying out there tomorrow and dropping a calendar into each one of those waves.

[Gustywind]

This wave looks pretty intense too. Alot of reds on the sat pic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

Pretty intense is an euphemisma

[cycloneye]

The latest image.

[boca]

I have a silly question do these systems coming off Africa know its June 14th or is it really Aug 14th and I slept away 2 months. Just wow.

[Cyclenall]

I have a silly question do these systems coming off Africa know its June 14th or is it really Aug 14th and I slept away 2 months. Just wow.

Yeah, I'm nearly gasping every time I look at the TWs coming off Africa now. Usually near the end of August I start seeing the waves come off in this pattern but for the early-middle of June it's extraordinary.

[tina25]

Any model support?

[Weatherfreak000]

A real strong candidate for 93L definitely, the structure is incredible, SST's at record highs. Looking strong. No dry air......we will have to see.

[KWT]

Its very large but also fairly linear and straight lined.

Still it needs to be watched simply because we've seen 92l strengthen in the conditions out there and therefore its quite possible as conditions are similar out there...

[littlevince]

No sign of circulation, but impressive anyway

Loop (09:00-15:00z)


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Swimdude]

This one hasn't survived long enough to worry me yet. So many times we see massive waves come off the African coast, only for them to literally disappear within 48 hours. I'm reserving judgment on this one for a couple of days.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM discussion:

Nothing important other than the moderate to strong convection.No mention of any circulation.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W FROM 2N TO 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
MAP MATCHES WELL WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WAVE...INDICATING LOW
TO MODERATE VALES IN THIS REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS BETWEEN 2N AND 11N AND BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

[KWT]

Yeah still looking pretty linear, doesn't look as good as 92L did when it came off land IMO.

[Cookie]

I agree Boca. I'm personally flying out there tomorrow and dropping a calendar into each one of those waves.

well done mate you had me in fits of laughter. for a split moment when i first read the first few words I thought u where serious lol

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT pass shows a weak low pressure just off Africa.

[Cyclenall]

A real strong candidate for 93L definitely, the structure is incredible, SST's at record highs. Looking strong. No dry air......we will have to see.

The neat thing here is the conditions are so good for June that some of these TW's actually have a chance not long after emerging to become suspect. There aren't very many negative signals around the eastern area of the MDR to suggest formation is "unlikely". The moisture and lack of dry air is remarkable for mid-June.

[Weatherfreak000]

I agree, realistically the conditions out there are absurdly favorable for June...makes you wonder what next month has in store.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian develops it and send it to the Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps as well

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro showing a system in Lesser Antilles, not sure if its this wave, but a sign that things are about to get active. Also note the mischief in the Western Caribbean