ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFDL in. Big contrast to the 18z which dissipated it. This run ends with a weak TS near Puerto Rico:

Mon Jun 14 02:04:26 EDT 2010
WHXX04 KWBC 140519

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 14


DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 8.1 37.7 295./14.9
6 8.9 38.6 311./11.3
12 9.3 39.4 301./ 9.2
18 10.0 40.1 311./ 9.8
24 11.0 40.9 323./12.4
30 11.9 42.1 307./14.8
36 12.9 43.3 310./15.7
42 13.9 44.7 304./16.5
48 14.0 46.5 273./18.0
54 14.4 48.1 285./15.6
60 14.5 49.7 273./15.1
66 14.8 51.2 282./14.9
72 14.9 52.7 276./14.7
78 15.1 53.7 279./10.4
84 15.2 55.5 274./17.0
90 15.1 56.8 267./12.4
96 15.6 58.2 289./13.9
102 16.1 59.7 286./15.6
108 16.3 61.2 280./14.4
114 16.8 62.1 298./ 9.8
120 17.0 63.4 279./12.8
126 17.4 64.4 292./10.3

399

[djones65]

I have been looking at the water vapor loops intently late tonight and I see some indication that a upper level cyclonic circulation appears to be forming along the shear axis or narrow trough just northeast of the Leeward Islands. If you look carefully we can see upper ridging building east southeastward over the Atlantic and the beginning of a possible upper level cyclone near 19.5N and 59W. If this indeed happens it is quite likely it will move southwestward into the Caribbean Sea and allowing the ridging to the north bridge with the upper anticyclone and ridge to the east over 92L. This would allow a much more favorable environment for intensification as the strong west to east flow would be blocked somewhat and if the upper circulation tracked southwest and west would provide environment conducive for this disturbance to maintain or even strengthen with time. It is something I noted and may be the reason why GFDL didn't dissipate 92L during its 00 UTC run. It would be within the realm of possibility if you observe the water vapor loops. It is something to watch for sure...

[ronjon]

All models are now trending southward with a caribbean cruiser now likely.

[wzrgirl1]

Thought I'd post this here, since the 92L model thread is a tad more hard core thread just now, and see what you seasoned watchers think of this comment, gleaned during this site's downtime. I know satellite views started in the 1970's I think, but still it's worth pondering:


"As an aside, I've checked records back to 1851 for all systems within 100 statute miles of ~10N, ~37.5W. I found no systems within at least 100 miles of 92L's likely position. Thus, with development becoming increasingly probable, 92L will likely become the easternmost TS to ever form in the Atlantic in June since records began more than 100 years ago."

from snowflake22 http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=232206&st=560

Yes good researching. According to this website, the earliest far eastern storm was Bertha which formed in 2008 but that wasn't until July 3rd.

http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-records.php

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was just going to ask that question. Possible earliest storm. Wow. I have a guy showing up for an estimate on shutters today. Should of done it on the off season.

[Frank2]

Of course there was Bertha in early July, 1996, which was one of the earliest CV hurricanes on record - but the shear environment is much different this time...

Frank

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Models

Notice the slow increase in intensity as time goes on.


WHXX01 KWBC 141241
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC MON JUN 14 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100614 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100614 1200 100615 0000 100615 1200 100616 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 39.9W 10.7N 42.6W 11.3N 45.7W 12.0N 48.7W
BAMD 9.7N 39.9W 10.8N 42.7W 11.7N 45.3W 12.7N 47.5W
BAMM 9.7N 39.9W 10.6N 42.6W 11.5N 45.3W 12.3N 47.9W
LBAR 9.7N 39.9W 11.3N 42.4W 12.9N 45.1W 14.4N 47.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100616 1200 100617 1200 100618 1200 100619 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 51.7W 13.3N 57.6W 14.1N 63.6W 14.9N 69.3W
BAMD 13.6N 49.3W 14.5N 52.4W 14.7N 55.8W 14.6N 60.0W
BAMM 12.9N 50.5W 13.4N 55.7W 13.8N 61.1W 14.2N 66.6W
LBAR 15.8N 49.8W 18.4N 52.9W 21.1N 54.7W 21.7N 55.9W
SHIP 44KTS 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS
DSHP 44KTS 46KTS 49KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 8.4N LONM12 = 37.6W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 7.1N LONM24 = 34.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

The 12 UTC SHIP data shows some moderate shear but not prohibitive and that is why the BAMMS show steady increase in intensity.

Code: Select all

            *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      INVEST  AL922010  06/14/10  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    28    31    34    37    41    44    46    46    47    49    51    52
V (KT) LAND       25    28    31    34    37    41    44    46    46    47    49    51    52
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    34    36    36    37    37    39    43    46

SHEAR (KT)         7     9    13     9     9    17    19    20    15    17    14    14    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -6    -3    -1    -2     0    -1     0     0    -3     1    -4    -4
SHEAR DIR         85   134   171   188   201   209   239   242   273   248   282   224   245
SST (C)         27.9  27.8  27.8  27.9  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.6  28.9  28.9  29.2  29.4  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   137   136   136   137   139   139   141   146   151   151   156   160   158
ADJ. POT. INT.   140   139   139   140   141   140   141   147   153   152   158   161   160
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     8     9     9    10    10    10    10    11     9
700-500 MB RH     73    70    70    68    64    62    57    56    56    56    57    58    62
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     8     7     7     7     6     6     5     4     4     4     3     3
850 MB ENV VOR    10     7     4     0    -7   -22   -21   -15    -2     0    14    28    46
200 MB DIV        71    85    87    50    22    10   -17    -9   -34     9    -2    13    18
LAND (KM)       1362  1286  1195  1119  1060   958   887   851   644   428   333   366   383
LAT (DEG N)      9.7  10.2  10.6  11.1  11.5  12.3  12.9  13.3  13.4  13.7  13.8  14.0  14.2
LONG(DEG W)     39.9  41.3  42.6  44.0  45.3  47.9  50.5  53.0  55.7  58.4  61.1  63.8  66.6
STM SPEED (KT)    13    14    14    14    13    13    13    13    13    13    13    13    14
HEAT CONTENT      23    23    30    42    49    59    60    72    86    84    82    63    59

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14      CX,CY: -11/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  539  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  75.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   6.  12.  20.  25.  30.  34.  36.  39.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   2.   1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.  -4.  -7.  -9. -11. -12. -14. -16.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.   9.  12.  16.  19.  21.  21.  22.  24.  26.  27.

   ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010     INVEST 06/14/10  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   9.4 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  63.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 114.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  77.4 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.3 Range: 30.6 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  33.4 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    44% is   3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    24% is   3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    13% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     8% is   2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010     INVEST 06/14/10  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010     INVEST 06/14/2010  00 UTC **
TIME        0-12h   0-24h   0-36h   0-48h       EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB  (%)     0       0       0       0    <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY


[Blown Away]

Looking at the shear maps, IMO, that shear near the islands is peaking rate now and by the time 92L approaches it will likely be on the decline. Just think 2009 and how many shreadded systems traversed through shear worse than what 92L will face!

[brunota2003]

Looks like the shear drops off around 120 hours (down to 13 from 19ish), at the height of the shear is when it'll experience the most heat content according to that above. Perhaps the heat content will help counter balance the shear a little?

[Macrocane]

Of course there was Bertha in early July, 1996, which was one of the earliest CV hurricanes on record - but the shear environment is much different this time...

Frank

Actually it was 2008 Bertha that holds the record for the earliest easternmost hurricane on record.

[Macrocane]

:uarrow: Looking at the shear maps, IMO, that shear near the islands is peaking rate now and by the time 92L approaches it will likely be on the decline. Just think 2009 and how many shreadded systems traversed through shear worse than what 92L will face!

You've got a point, in 2009 some storms were able to develop in a higher shear environment and cooler SST (Ana, Danny, Erika and Henri).

[wzrgirl1]

Of course there was Bertha in early July, 1996, which was one of the earliest CV hurricanes on record - but the shear environment is much different this time...

Frank

Actually it was 2008 Bertha that holds the record for the earliest easternmost hurricane on record.

Yeah that is what I wrote, it surpassed the old Bertha by two days.

[Ivanhater]

uh oh

[Blown Away]

What track does it take to get there?

[Ivanhater]

Comes out of the Caribbean, hits extreme S Florida and heads on a wnw heading in the Gulf

[gatorcane]

It's also important to note no other model shows what this CMC model is showing with 92L developing and heading into the GOM off the coast of Lousiana. This model is an outlier. Chances of that happening with 92L look remote at this point.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,if CMC is right on the track,it moves over Hispanola before arriving where you posted the extended run and you know what it means tracking over those tall mountains.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

It's also important to note no other model shows what this GEM model is showing with 92L developing and heading into the GOM off the coast of Lousiana. This model is an outlier. Chances of that happening with 92L look remote at this point.

Well not many models go out as long as the long range Canadian Gatorcane. Of course this is the longrange and should be taken with a grain of salt, but IF 92l can survive the shear and keeps some energy (even the canadian opens this up then spins it up after the shear), it will have a shot to redevelop after the shear. The shear is in a band, not a continuous problem all the way to the U.S

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,if CMC is right on the track,it moves over Hispanola before arriving where you posted the extended run and you know what it means tracking over those tall mountains.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Being such a weak system Luis, the mountains won't have much to disrupt. The Canadian spins it up after leaving the Caribbean with the extremely warm water in the Gulf.

Notice an open wave over the mountains, then spins up once reaching the hot waters of the Gulf. Look for the pattern here not the specifics. If If If the energy remains after the band of shear , this will have a shot imo.