Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

[msbee]

Looks like it is getting more serious

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Sun, 13 Jun 2010 12:31:01 -0500



000
ABNT20 KNHC 131730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[tropicana]

REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY

Sun Jun 13 2010

Sunday's Highs and Rain (if any)


Piarco, Trinidad 32.5C 91F 0.2mm
Maraval, W. Trinidad 30.7C 87F 7.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.4C 88F 0.8mm
Point Salines, Grenada 30.8C 87F

Grantley Adams, Barbados 31.3C 88F trace
Rockey, S. Barbados 31.8C 89F 1.3mm
Hewannora, St Lucia 31.3C 88F 1.5mm
Vigie, St Lucia 31.5C 89F 1.4mm

Melville Hall, Dominica 31.1C 88F
Le Lamentin, Martinique 31.9C 89F 3.6mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.6C 89F

VC Bird, Antigua 31.5C 89F
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F 15.5mm

Kingston, Jamaica 33.4C 92F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 34.0C 93F
Owen Roberts, Cayman Islands 32.7C 91F 3.3mm
Havana, Cuba 33.0C 91F 8.0mm
Key West, Florida 32.2C 90F
Miami, Florida 33.7C 93F trace


Nassau, Bahamas 34.0C 93F
Hamilton, Bermuda 25.8C 78F

[cycloneye]

It looks more imminent now the development into a Tropical Cyclone.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[Gustywind]

[size=200]Red Code[/size] here we are in June 14th

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion:

SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 975 NM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...FOCUSED ON
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N37W. THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS N AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 35W-39W...AND FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 38W-42W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS CURRENTLY
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

[msbee]

percentage keeps increasing with each discussion

[Gustywind]

Yeah unhopefully Barbara that's becoming worrying each weather forecast... meanwhile another HUGE wave is on the verge of exiting Africa looks like a powerfull squall line.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.A wet weekend regardless what 92L may be at that time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST MON JUN 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN EAST-WEST TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL PASS OVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE NOSES IN FROM
THE EAST. FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AFTER WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BUT STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF AFRICA
AROUND 22 NORTH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 NORTH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SEVERAL BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE DUE TO ARRIVE
ON SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 40 WEST THIS
MORNING. A SECOND WAVE IS LEAVING AFRICA NOW AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER SHOWS A CONTINUING PATTERN OF MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS AND WIDE BANDS OF BETTER MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO
RICO AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. LATEST MODELS SHOW MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER...INCREASING MORE OR LESS STEADILY BETWEEN
TODAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK FROM ABOUT 1.4 INCHES TO OVER 2.3 INCHES.
DURING THIS TIME A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MID WEEK...A
SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING MONITORED
FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING WITH IT CONSIDERABLY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT...MORE IMPORTANTLY...NOW APPEARS TO
REPRESENT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. A THIRD WAVE...CURRENTLY LEAVING AFRICA WILL
BE POISED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO NOT
DEVELOP THE WAVE APPROACHING 40 WEST LONGITUDE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ROTATION VISIBLE
AROUND ITS CENTER AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE SPIRAL BANDS. IN
ADDITION TO THIS VISIBLE STRUCTURE THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE OCEAN WARMTH TO INDUCE GROWTH. WHETHER IT CAN SURVIVE A
TRANSITION OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES IS OF NO LITTLE CONSEQUENCE AND AT THIS TIME WOULD TEND
TO GO WITH THE MODELS AND MERELY INDICATE A WET WEEKEND FOR PUERTO
RICO AND PERHAPS SOME RAINS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS
AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE COULD HAVE PARTICULARLY GUSTY WINDS.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO PLACE THE REGION AT RISK FOR LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. CURRENTLY MONDAY...WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
MOST FAVORABLE FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TIST...TISX...TNCM AND TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH 14/12Z. FOR THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 14/18-22Z... EXPECT
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. IN
ADDITION...MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. LATEST 14/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 5 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SFC UP TO 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS
WEEK. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW 7 FEET IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 19/00Z...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THIS TO
THE GRIDS UNTIL WINDS ARE MORE CERTAIN.

[Gustywind]

2 huge systems progressing westward towards the ECaribbean in June! The second is very very amazing, waouw

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[msbee]

Crown Weather says about that second wave:

"Another strong tropical wave has just emerged off of the coast of Africa. This disturbance has the potential to develop over the next few days and it will be monitored very closely. It should be noted that the African tropical wave train will continue for the next week to 10 days. After that, it appears we may see a break for 2 to 3 weeks. After that, the wave train from Africa will come back around mid-July and it could go gangbusters at that point in terms of named storms. "

[Hugo1989]

Creen que la zona de mal tiempo la 92L sea clasificada depresion tropical para el dia de hoy??
Espero respuesta de los expertos.
They believe that the area of bad weather 92L is classified tropical depression to this day?

[cycloneye]

Creen que la zona de mal tiempo la 92L sea clasificada depresion tropical para el dia de hoy??
Espero respuesta de los expertos.
They believe that the area of bad weather 92L is classified tropical depression to this day?

Bienvenido a este foro que yo se que te va a gustar mucho. Es posible que sea classificada mas tarde hoy a depression tropical,pero depende si se mantiene organizada. En donde tu vives?

Welcome to Storm2k.I know it will like you a lot as we have many forums for you to participate. Is possible that it may be upgradede to a depression but it all depends idf it continues organizing. Where are you from?

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of 92L

The forecast for 92L
The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a high (60% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The odds of development have increased since yesterday, as the storm has moved considerably to the northwest, away from the Equator. Now it can leverage the Earth's spin to a much greater degree to help get it get spinning. It is quite unusual for a tropical depression to form south of 8°N latitude.

I expect that 92L's best chance to become a tropical depression will come on Tuesday, and the storm could strengthen enough by Wednesday to be named Tropical Storm Alex. The farther south 92L stays, the better chance it has at survival. With the system's steady west-northwest movement this week, 92L will probably begin encountering hostile wind shear in excess of 20 knots by Wednesday, which should interfere with continued development. Several of our reliable models do develop 92L into a tropical storm with 40 - 55 mph winds, but all of the models foresee weakening by Thursday or Friday as 92L approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands and encounters high shear and dry air. I doubt 92L will be anything stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm when it moves through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday and Saturday, and it would be no surprise if wind shear has destroyed the storm by then. However, as usual, surprises can happen, and the GFS and the SHIPS model (which is based upon the GFS) do indicate that more modest levels of wind shear in the 15 - 20 mph range late this week may allow 92L to stay stronger than I'm expecting. Residents of the islands--particularly the northern Lesser Antilles--should follow the progress of 92L closely, and anticipate heavy rains and high winds moving through the islands as early as Thursday night.

[Hugo1989]

Saludos,

Vivo en San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hace mas de 10 a~os que no tenemos el paso
de algun evento atmosferico de importancia. Segun los expertos, esperan una temporada
muy activa lo que hace mas vulnerable y crece las probabilidades de que un sistema toque tierra.
Como ve esta temporada para las antillas?

[cycloneye]

Saludos,

Vivo en San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hace mas de 10 a~os que no tenemos el paso
de algun evento atmosferico de importancia. Segun los expertos, esperan una temporada
muy activa lo que hace mas vulnerable y crece las probabilidades de que un sistema toque tierra.
Como ve esta temporada para las antillas?

Yo tambien vivo en San Juan. Bueno,todo indica una temporada bien activa,pero no se sabe si Puerto Rico va a ser visitado con un azote directo porque es es mucho el tiempo que va a pasar para saber que va a occurrir en cuanto a los patrones de trajectoria para PR.

[Hugo1989]

Pero en definitiva ver una baja presion en desarrollo a comienzo de junio debe ser un adelanto de como sera esta temporada. El sistema que esta justo detras de la baja presion saliendo de africa, se ve con potencial de desarrollo? al menos en los distintos mapas se ve con bastante nubosidad. Existe algun sitio web donde uno pueda ver los distitntos modelos climatologico para conocer posibles trayectoria??

[cycloneye]

Pero en definitiva ver una baja presion en desarrollo a comienzo de junio debe ser un adelanto de como sera esta temporada. El sistema que esta justo detras de la baja presion saliendo de africa, se ve con potencial de desarrollo? al menos en los distintos mapas se ve con bastante nubosidad. Existe algun sitio web donde uno pueda ver los distitntos modelos climatologico para conocer posibles trayectoria??

No se si estos son los modelos que tu estas buscando pero son climatologicos.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

[Hugo1989]

Los modelos de pronosticos que la mayorias de las veces son a 5 dias. pronostican el comportamiento de la atmosfera y el camino a seguir de los sistemas atmosferico. El mismo que utilizan los meteorologos en sus informes del tiempo, ese es el que queria saber si una persona comun podria tener asceso?

Gracias por la ayuda!