ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

There is still some convection near the center Cycloneye, the problem is the way the convection imploded further north is a sign of what sort of conditions 92l itself will be in within the next 24hrs.

[OURAGAN]

I agree, convection to the north- east is dying and is increasing near the center

[HURAKAN]

If you look at the system, it doesn't look like a sheared disturbance, it looks convection deficient.

[HURAKAN]

MEDIUM at 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT. THERE
REMAINS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

[Ivanhater]

Now that is an interesting TWO. HMMM tonight should be interesting

[Macrocane]

I agree with the NHC we cannot rule out development yet, even if it looks less organized than earlier today, we could have a surprise tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

.BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.

Structurally it has, let's see if it can blow some storms up tonight

[Ivanhater]

Looking at microwave imagery, it's obvious why the NHC says it has organized today...LLC is well defined...all it needs is to develop storms over the center, looking out for that tonight

[KWT]

Its going to get one more shot, the shear over the center isn't too bad right now but is clearly really hammering off to the north, so much so you can see that convection has a really sheared look...

But the center LLC is still under less then 10kts...my interest has risen just a touch again.

[Ivanhater]

Storms around the center continue to deepen.

[curtadams]

I agree it looks pretty nice on the IR2 loop, which is to say at lower cloud levels. But, the NHC likes persistence for numbering/naming - they hate numbering a system which is immediately going to evaporate, barring land threats. If it throws up some convection tonight, you could make an argument it's a TD, but I don't see the NHC numbering it unless they expect it to last at least a day and that seems unlikely with the shear/dry air issues we're all seeing.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak stays at 1.0.

14/2345 UTC 11.3N 41.7W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[NDG]

I think at least one more night that it has a chance to produce and maintain some deeper convection, what appears to be a small LLC is pulling away from the convection to its northeast that was disrupting its inflow from the east quadrant.

zoomed in sat pic & where I think a small LLC is located:

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2010061500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 421W, 25, 1011, DB

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection has definitely finally made it over the center with that best track...as I can tell some nice healthy convection is fully incasing our center. If ever anything were to happen..it'd be happening tonight.

[lonelymike]

Don't worry the fat lady is warming up, Bones is on call and wxman57 will be along tomorrow to shatter another hurricane fantasy of many a young and promising youth

Ivanhater: The work goes on and the dream never dies

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[KWT]

It looks decent enough right now, amazing what the sunset can sometimes do to these developing tropical systems...

Lets see how long it can hold its convection for before uncle shear comes knocking...

[HURAKAN]

It looks better than many of the named systems from last year! LOL

But looks aren't everything in the tropics!!

[KWT]

It looks like a tropical storm, I'm sure if you showed many of the Joe Public out there it was a TS, they'd think your telling the truth with that image!

Does look like its going to have one more attempt before the shear kicks the living daylights out of it!