ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

Early activity in the tropical Atlantic
Guy Walton, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jun. 15, 2010 4:29 am ET
The tropics continue to be void of any named tropical systems around the globe.

Nevertheless, there is an area of low pressure in the central Atlantic that is being monitored for development and could become a tropical depression in the next day or so. It is currently located around 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west-northwest to northwest around 15 miles per hour. The chances for further development have lowered slightly for two reasons. First, the thunderstorms around the low have become somewhat less organized and, second, the system may begin to experience increasing wind shear aloft (a more hostile environment) as it moves nearer to the Windward Islands.

[Thunder44]

Convection starting to weaken again, looks like Wxman57 may be ready to get bones out again, because its heading into the jaws of a pretty potent Jet...

Yeah, you can see on satellite that about to hit a wall of strong shear. There is also little inflow coming into system, to keep convection going for very long. So I think it will most likely not be upgraded.

[KWT]

Yeah it really is a wall of shear ahead of it, probably will have a naked swirl in 12-18hrs once the actual circulation gets into the shear itself, still looks pretty awful out there.

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE BECOME
LIMITED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[caribepr]

Yay!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N43W.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
43W-45W. THE SYSTEM HAS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES NW AT ABOUT 15 KT.

Oops!

[HURAKAN]

Becoming a ghost

[canes04]

Don't write off 92L just yet. It appears to be slowing down and moving more west.
It may miss the major shear to it's NW. If the circulation can hold on another day or so it could find better conditions down the road.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok so maybe i was optimistic by seeing a name by this morning .

I saw on bookmaker, they were betting the over/under on 15 hurricanes this year. The under was paying -200. I think the under would be a good bet

[KWT]

What under 15 hurricanes or 15 named storms, there is a massive difference there...

Anyway 92L looks a shadow of what it did even just a few hours ago. As hurakan's image shows, the system is now really lacking in convection, but you can see a nice circulation with 92L now its convection isn't as good.

Heading towards the higher shear, no real way it can avoid it now.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Is that 92L's LLC getting undressed?

[HurricaneJoe22]

That's what I like about tropical systems. You don't even need to give them a few drinks before they'll undress.

[tolakram]

Goodbye... Interesting that a new burst is taking place southwest of the center ... but I think we are seeing the end. Famous last words.

[KWT]

Don't write off 92L just yet. It appears to be slowing down and moving more west.
It may miss the major shear to it's NW. If the circulation can hold on another day or so it could find better conditions down the road.

If it is starting to take a slightly more westerly track its probably because of the weakening of the convection.

This system though is very early to break away from the ITCZ it has to be said.

ps, well and truely naked, very quick weakening of the convection!

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[tolakram]

I find it mildly interesting that it's also headed into warmer waters again at aprox 45W

[HURAKAN]

Lower Convergence remains weak. Even if there was no shear, if there can't be convergence, there can't be stable thunderstorms.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I don't see the impressive system that some were commenting on earlier this morning. Hardly any convection and being that it's moving into more hostile conditions doesn't shock me that the chance of development is down to 30%. It will probably go lower from here.

If it wasn't going into a high shear environment, it would have a chance, but when it's not even a depression yet and it's going into a high shear environment, I don't see how it has a chance.

[KWT]

Well about 6-9hrs ago it did look pretty decent CZ but since then the convection has more or less totally decayed. The fact the system has lost all of its convergence probably isn't helping matters either.

[drezee]

It is going to pass just S of this buoy...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

winds are on the increase and pressure is falling...