ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Nederlander]

wow .. lots of people are quick to jump on the bandwagon and then right back off.. convection is pulsing.. look at the latest imagery, youve got more convection showing up to the west now...

[cycloneye]

92L is gone from NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[tolakram]

The real time tropical site lost all of it's invests an hour ago as well, though they've been restored. Some bad data in the system I suspect.

[x-y-no]

Hmm ... even though it isn't looking like much at the moment, that's premature.

I'm guessing a glitch of some sort.

[HURAKAN]

It has to be a glitch bc 92E was also taken down. 92L is likely to be discontinued sooner rather than later, but not 92E.

[HURAKAN]

AccuWeather.com meteorologists have been tracking this system as it came off Africa. While it still remains unorganized in the Atlantic, it has the potential to become a big rainmaker as it moves through the islands.

In addition, Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is predicting a second surge of tropically induced rain in the next two weeks with a tropical wave following the current system and has said the current system may be something for Florida and the Gulf to be on watch for in the long term.


Link - http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... eatens.asp

[cycloneye]

Guess what peeps,it is back

[drezee]

Hey....
I think we may have had a Tropical Storm about 24-48 hours ago. This thing is sheared to bits and 41041 has 31.5kts 1-min sustained winds right now! Peak gusts to 33kts...

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1650 31.5 kts E ( 83 deg true )

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
1550 E ( 80 deg ) 33.0 kts

[drezee]

If you use the 10kts per MB rule (not really applicable in this case, as it referes to dropsondes in the eye)...then you get 1009.9mb...

[artist]

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.7 °F

latest from that buoy drezee posted


ooops, guess i need to update my daylight savings time. Thought this was an hour later.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Hey....
I think we may have had a Tropical Storm about 24-48 hours ago. This thing is sheared to bits and 41041 has 31.5kts 1-min sustained winds right now! Peak gusts to 33kts...

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1650 31.5 kts E ( 83 deg true )

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
1550 E ( 80 deg ) 33.0 kts

That's pretty interesting

[NDG]

I am sure that if 92L would had been hugging our coast it would had been upgraded to a TD last night when it had a little bit more convection, I have seen TDs worst than this.

[lonelymike]

AccuWeather.com meteorologists have been tracking this system as it came off Africa. While it still remains unorganized in the Atlantic, it has the potential to become a big rainmaker as it moves through the islands.

In addition, Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi is predicting a second surge of tropically induced rain in the next two weeks with a tropical wave following the current system and has said the current system may be something for Florida and the Gulf to be on watch for in the long term.

Is he still predicting a hit on NY this year again?


Link - http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... eatens.asp

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro showing the remnants of 92L in the Gulf as well as other models. Something to watch

[Extremeweatherguy]

It wouldn't surprise me at all if 92L gets upgraded post-season. It definitely looked like it could have been a tropical depression at a few different points over the last couple of days.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[bob rulz]

I think it's safe to call in Bones on this one.

It could still re-organize once it reaches the western Caribbean and/or Gulf though correct? Conditions are much more favorable further west.

[drezee]

Tropical Storm force wind gusts in the NE quad of the swirl...sustained winds still over 30kts

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(GMT) GDR GST
1833 E ( 100 deg ) 35.0 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1833 30.9 kts E ( 95 deg true )

1012.4 mb

I would agrue for pressue of 1009 mb at the center...

[HURAKAN]

15/1745 UTC 13.3N 45.5W T1.0/1.0 92L

back to 1.0