ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Euro has the vorticity of 92L in the southern gulf..easier to see on this map. Side note, watch out in the southern caribbean

[cycloneye]

From the AFD in San Juan.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST TUE JUN 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 1000 HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY AND WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WERE
THE RESULT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING AT
THE SURFACE AND OROGAPHIC EFFECTS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. DURING MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BREEZE CONDITIONS HAS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL COASTAL
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING THESE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO...WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 45 WEST...WHICH IS NEAR
1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SURGE IN MOISTURE STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND PROBABLY
LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY. LATEST SJU-GFS PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 2.3 INCHES BY SUNDAY. ALSO...UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS BETTER FOR SUNDAY....AS THE WAVE INTERACT WITH
THE TUTT LOW. THEREFORE...AT THIS MOMENT...SUNDAY LOOKS VERY WET
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AS WE
APPROACH THE FATHER`S DAY WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NOLA2010]

From the AFD in San Juan.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST TUE JUN 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 1000 HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY AND WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WERE
THE RESULT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING AT
THE SURFACE AND OROGAPHIC EFFECTS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. DURING MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...BREEZE CONDITIONS HAS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL COASTAL
AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
PRODUCING THESE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THIS WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO
RICO...WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 45 WEST...WHICH IS NEAR
1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL
BRING A SURGE IN MOISTURE STARTING ON FRIDAY...AND PROBABLY
LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY. LATEST SJU-GFS PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW
VALUES WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS 2.3 INCHES BY SUNDAY. ALSO...UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOKS BETTER FOR SUNDAY....AS THE WAVE INTERACT WITH
THE TUTT LOW. THEREFORE...AT THIS MOMENT...SUNDAY LOOKS VERY WET
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AS WE
APPROACH THE FATHER`S DAY WEEKEND.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

So do they think it will get bring thunderstorms or do they think it will be a TD or TS?

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011

[cycloneye]

So do they think it will get bring thunderstorms or do they think it will be a TD or TS?

They forecast an open tropical wave,no tropical depression nor tropical storm when it moves thru the Eastern Caribbean.

[drezee]

18z

AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011

Why would the best track be 25kts when buoys are reporting 30+kts sustained winds?

[Aquawind]

18z

AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011

Why would the best track be 25kts when buoys are reporting 30+kts sustained winds?

Good Question.. I would have to assume that is sattelite interpretation..bouy data sounds more factual.

[NDG]

18z

AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011

Why would the best track be 25kts when buoys are reporting 30+kts sustained winds?

They're in denial, j/k

Tough to say when we do not have a buoy closer to the center of 92L's circulation, winds could be from pressure gradient instead of being directly from the system itself, hard to tell.

[HURAKAN]

Pressure gradient? Unlikely

[bvigal]

Uh, so...er... when is this low going to make that 90degree left turn necessary for it to cross into the Caribbean?

I know they are expecting some ridging, but WOW! If this is a pattern we can expect this season, it's going to be a long few months of high anxiety here.

I think these models showing it in the Carib. are using old fixes, it's almost to 14N at 45W. (See the model history, that never showed it gaining so much latitude so fast.) Looks to me like it will either die out completely before it reaches Antigua, or cross north of us. Watch the HWRF, if they even run it again (12z they ran the Epac).

[cycloneye]

Still has a good circulation in the most recent microwave image.

[bvigal]

AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011
onward and upward!

[x-y-no]

If it keeps tracking NW like this, it's going to be dead really soon. Turning west today was it's last shot at survival.

[HURAKAN]

Live fighting, die fighting!

[HURAKAN]

A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 14N46W WILL MOVE NW AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...REACHING NEAR 15N52W WED AFTERNOON...THEN
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THU AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT
THU...INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NE CARIBBEAN FRI
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN.


Link - http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ZNT25.KNHC

[Weatherfreak000]

Actually, I was thinking if it manages to keep it's circulation in tact, (A similar trait the depression that eventually spawned Katrina had), it could definitely re-establish itself in that hebert box zone.

Granted that's like saying your gonna take a hit from the football player Ray Lewis and get back up.

[NDG]

Buoy reporting almost 11' waves now.

Conditions at 41041 as of
2050 GMT on 06/15/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

[drezee]

18z

AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011

Why would the best track be 25kts when buoys are reporting 30+kts sustained winds?

They're in denial, j/k

Tough to say when we do not have a buoy closer to the center of 92L's circulation, winds could be from pressure gradient instead of being directly from the system itself, hard to tell.

I would don't gradient when the buoy was less than 50 nm from the 18z position.

[drezee]

Buoy reporting almost 11' waves now.

Conditions at 41041 as of
2050 GMT on 06/15/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

Conditions at 41041 as of
2150 GMT on 06/15/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F

[NDG]

Buoy reporting almost 11' waves now.

Conditions at 41041 as of
2050 GMT on 06/15/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.7 °F

Conditions at 41041 as of
2150 GMT on 06/15/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F

No ordinary disturbance produces at least 12' waves, this may not be officially be classified as a TD due to lack of organized convection, but it surely has the strength of a weak TD.