EPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 151400
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 105.1W TO 15.7N 110.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
105.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A
150830Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW
AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA
SUPPORTED A 15-20 KNOT SYMMETRIC LLCC. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 161400Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPAC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED..THE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR HEAVY RAINS TO IMPACT AT LEAST SOME
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER TERRY

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1051W, 25, 1007, DB

[HURAKAN]

371
WHXX01 KMIA 151831
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1831 UTC TUE JUN 15 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922010) 20100615 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100615 1800 100616 0600 100616 1800 100617 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 105.1W 15.4N 105.6W 15.8N 106.6W 16.2N 107.9W
BAMD 14.8N 105.1W 15.5N 106.2W 16.1N 107.7W 16.8N 109.5W
BAMM 14.8N 105.1W 15.4N 105.9W 15.8N 107.1W 16.2N 108.8W
LBAR 14.8N 105.1W 15.5N 105.6W 16.0N 106.8W 16.6N 108.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100617 1800 100618 1800 100619 1800 100620 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 109.5W 16.6N 113.1W 15.5N 117.2W 13.8N 120.8W
BAMD 17.5N 111.5W 18.8N 115.5W 19.8N 119.5W 20.8N 122.6W
BAMM 16.7N 110.8W 17.2N 114.9W 17.0N 119.7W 16.3N 124.6W
LBAR 17.8N 110.4W 19.4N 115.0W 21.5N 118.9W 23.0N 120.9W
SHIP 34KTS 32KTS 26KTS 19KTS
DSHP 34KTS 32KTS 26KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 105.1W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 105.2W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 105.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hurricane Andrew]

latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

699
ABPZ20 KNHC 160530
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

421
ABPZ20 KNHC 161149
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 161400
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151351Z JUN 10//
REF/B/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161321Z JUN 10//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 151400),
REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PHNC 160930).//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 104.8W TO 19.0N 109.5W WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.4W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N
105.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 105.7W, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION CENTER (LLCC), AND HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS. AN 1136Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS STILL OVER THE LLCC, SUPPORTING THE INFRARED IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN
ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT MODERATE LEVELS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE PERIST-
ANT CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171400Z.
4. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.6W.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

east shear impacting 92E

[cycloneye]

061
ABPZ20 KNHC 161750
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[KWT]

Yep the LLC is very nicely exposed there, that shear is going to have to ease off a little I'd have thought if the NHC are going to pull the trigger with this one.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[Kingarabian]

Its at Code Red.

[KWT]

At the moment this looks like a sheared depression, it certainly looks much better than Td2E does right now. Most of the convection does seem to be on the south and western side, but I'd certainly say it must be close to being upgraded.

I'd imagine the NHC will upgrade once we get good vis.imagery but right now I'd say this probably is a depression.

[cycloneye]

100%

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUNTO MALDONADO
MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE