MSLP forecast to be low during peak of 2010 Atlantic season

[Ivanhater]

The people who think we are going to get off the hook after having a relatively quiet first of June, I think are in for a wild season. BTW the GFS is showing a big drop in pressures across the Caribbean now..looks like everything is on track

[KWT]

I'd still be expecting a huge season even if we only had a 1 storm throughout June and July, which by the way I'd be very surprised to see, I'd have thought we'd be upto 3NS by the end of July which is above average, but the real big part of the season kicks in from August and thats the worrying thing.

Besides put it this way, even the average of the top 8 seasons only had 1NS at this stage, on average they got no.2 by 28th June...so we are behind the average of the top 8 but that doesn't mean much till late July really...

[cycloneye]

Here is the ECMWF July forecast for ASO (August September October) that doesn't show variations from the past months forecasts. The July forecast continues to look omminous showing lower pressures in most of the Atlantic Basin for the peak months of the season.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... t/eurosip/

[KWT]

Those forecasts have come off thus far not too badly...but the pressure seen during June was not even *close* to what we saw in 2005 and whilst favourable is probably at a similar level to 2008...plus the models have thus far underestimated the Azores High.

[Blown Away]

Those forecasts have come off thus far not too badly...but the pressure seen during June was not even *close* to what we saw in 2005 and whilst favourable is probably at a similar level to 2008...plus the models have thus far underestimated the Azores High.

The models still calling for lower than normal pressures but not as much as in previous months maybe because the Azores High has been stronger than predicted?

[KWT]

Hard to say whether thats the reason or not, the Azores high wasn't really that strong till the 2nd half of June and pressure wasn't stupidly low back then.

Of course the issue with comparing this year and 2010 is the fact 05 already had several big systems by the point so the pressures would be lower anyway. However we aren't as low as some of the long range forecasts progged at the moment...still low but just not quite at the exceptional level of some of the Spring forecast.

[Blown Away]

Hard to say whether thats the reason or not, the Azores high wasn't really that strong till the 2nd half of June and pressure wasn't stupidly low back then.

Of course the issue with comparing this year and 2010 is the fact 05 already had several big systems by the point so the pressures would be lower anyway. However we aren't as low as some of the long range forecasts progged at the moment...still low but just not quite at the exceptional level of some of the Spring forecast.

IMO, the tropical train is about to leave the station! The Azores high pumped up a little and blasted dust into the Atlantic killing off everything. I think we will see the lower pressures set in and the SAL will be minimal allowing the current waves over Africa to maintain strength. I like that wave over Central Africa and by the time it makes it to @50W in about 10 days, it will be late July and the conditions could be favorable.

[Nimbus]

Everything is on track for a major weather catastrophe this year. No way around it there will be deaths, property damage and people left homeless. They say an average hurricane releases the energy of 100 Hiroshima sized atomic bombs. As we roll into August Storm2k starts feeling like a rerun of Doctor Strangelove.

[KWT]

I think it really is just a matter of time before things kick off as well, once the SAL eases and the ITCZ lifts out a little further to prevent all the systems heading right into South/Central America. Just keep a close eye though on the ULL/TUTT though, its been pretty consistant lately somewhat like 07.

[hurricaneCW]

I have a lot of concerns about the TUTT that extends from the Caribbean to the Central Atlantic. It hasn't budged in a couple of weeks. So even if the SAL fades away and we get a storm to form, it will get destroyed immediately by the ULL and TUTTS hanging around. I'm starting to get concerned to about the big season predicted. It's mid July and there is nothing expected to develop anytime soon. The ULL and SAL are making me question the prospects of a hyperactive season. I went with 14 named storms and at this point, that seems pretty accurate. I just can't see 16+ storms this season anymore. In order for that to happen, you need an active July or at least a storm or two in July.

The waters can be as high as they want to be and the pressures as low as they want to be but if the upper air conditions are unfavorable, then you have nothing. We'll see if any of those negative factors change in the second half of the month.

[KWT]

That is true and it reminds me thus far alot of 2007, the global patterns are very close to 1998 overall, so something like 14-15NS may end up being a better call, but with a very high ACE still.

That being said we could have nothing till early August, and still end up with 18NS as we saw with 1969...that didn't get its 2nd NS till early August.

Just hold fire people on thinking this won't be a huge season, trust me it will be...

[cycloneye]

In my book, hyperactive season is not how many named storms form but how much ACE units a season gets and the more it has,the more hyperactive it is.

[Bocadude85]

That is true and it reminds me thus far alot of 2007, the global patterns are very close to 1998 overall, so something like 14-15NS may end up being a better call, but with a very high ACE still.

That being said we could have nothing till early August, and still end up with 18NS as we saw with 1969...that didn't get its 2nd NS till early August.

Just hold fire people on thinking this won't be a huge season, trust me it will be...

2004 also produced 15 named storms and didnt start until the last day of July... just goes to show you that the 3 month span of August, September and October can really pump out storms one after another.

[KWT]

The thing is really the 2004 season actually was mainly a 6-7 week season from the first week of August to the 3rd week of September more or less in terms of threat.