ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[NDG]

Yes, convection is now to the east but is not that far away from the LLC that I have been tracking all day as some might think. In fact Navy/NRL site has it centered at 14.1N/47.5W as of 00z.

[NDG]

First time I have seen this TRIMM image but 92L looks good right now.Maybe in a couple of hours,this burst ends but as of now,is doing good.

Very nice image, one more evidence that convection is very close to the LLC with its very evident circulation.

[bahamaswx]

Better get some over the center lest it opens up.

[wxman57]

Yes, convection is now to the east but is not that far away from the LLC that I have been tracking all day as some might think. In fact Navy/NRL site has it centered at 14.1N/47.5W as of 00z.

Well, they had it in the wrong place this morning, as the weak LLC had shot out west of the convection. I'd put it closer to 49.0 or 49.5 now, if it still exists at all. Looking like an open wave.

[HURAKAN]

First image of my 3rd photobucket account! LOL

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

Exactly,where best track had it at 00 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

If this is right, 92L isn't hitting the shear soon.

[dixiebreeze]

00 UTC Best Track

Hey,they saw the data from bouy!

AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W,30, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

Rather auspicious tonight Luis.

[ozonepete]

All I'd like to add at this early stage is that you just can't rely on shear forecasts. They are, and have been, awful many times. The reason why is obvious - there's very little good data out there over the open ocean. We just can't intialize the models well, and that is why the models have such a hard time making good shear forecasts: the input is so poor. I look at the CIMSS shear and forecast shear and shear tendency like everybody else, but they can't be relied on very much.
If you were looking at the very busy typhoon season last year, and relied on the model forecasts for shear, you would have made some really bad forecasts (like I did, haha). They completely overforecasted the shear last year for the Pacific and completely underforecasted it for the Atlantic. What will happen this season? The models will still get the shear wrong. They won't do a good job on shear until the storm is near land or the days when we have better readings out over the ocean with better satellite sensors.
So we should watch this one carefully until it's over, especially because it caught us by surprise to begin with.

[cycloneye]

Latest mircowave shows it has not crossed the 48W longitud but very close.

[NDG]

Looks like 92L found a slight break in the shear, from the strongest, it has decreased almost in half compared to 24hrs ago.

[Ivanhater]

That convection is well to the east of what's left of the LLC. It appears to be opening up and shearing apart. Chances of it surviving the shear over the next 3-5 days are slim.

Well east of the center? Not based on the 00Z position



I also don't think it is opening up, at least not yet. In fact with the buoy data today it is likely that it is a TD now. I've seen worse classified.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 0215z.

[NDG]

For those of you who need more evidence of the possible LLC's location:

[Macrocane]

It doesn't want to die yet, we can tell it's a fighter. Although I think the chances of development are low tonight I also think it may survive the shear and may become a player once it reaches the Caribbean as some models have been showing.

[NDG]

If convecton persists during the night and sticks close to the LLC they better upgrade it, there's already evidence of TD force winds, even when it barely had convection from earlier this afternoon.

[bvigal]

...First image of my 3rd photobucket account! LOL

Now why am I not surprised to hear you are on 3rd account ?!!

Hey Hurakan, am I reading that shear map wrong? I was looking at the same thing, and 92 looks to me close to 30kt, then 40kt in a few hrs. Here, I've marked it on the pic you posted:

[Ivanhater]

Very impressive..even if it does not last, this kind of activity in June is a bad sign

[HURAKAN]

Hey Hurakan, am I reading that shear map wrong? I was looking at the same thing, and 92 looks to me close to 30kt, then 40kt in a few hrs. Here, I've marked it on the pic you posted:

Good observation. I missed that!