ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[ozonepete]

I wonder if the shear is lessening because an upper level low is developing ahead of it within the TUTT. If you watch the motion in the upper level clouds, it seems like this is a possibility...

[NDG]

Hey Hurakan, am I reading that shear map wrong? I was looking at the same thing, and 92 looks to me close to 30kt, then 40kt in a few hrs. Here, I've marked it on the pic you posted:

Good observation. I missed that!

But the shear streak has been moving NW as well, but not as fast as 92L has been moving, so I would think that by tomorrow some time it will reach the stronger shear of 30-40 knots.

[cycloneye]

The latest image at 0245z.-80C tops return.

[Ivanhater]

I will say this, I would not want to be caught under this thunderstorm complex

[Fego]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Enjoy it until the very strong shear say hello.

[bvigal]

Interesting idea about an upper level low. I've been looking at the various level vorticity since mid-afternoon, stacked on 92L with those tops. We've had this upper level trough over us for days - see here
I think shear often doesn't result as forecast when tropical lows are involved, it seems much more predictable in winter. If shear does kill it short term, which looks likely, when it gets here that energy will make for some good gusty tstorms, etc. However, as it moves further west, you guys on the mainland keep an eye on this... I never discount a disturbance that has unusual staying power, it might lose its organization and impressive appearance on satellite, but the energy is still there.

[cycloneye]

Interesting idea about an upper level low. I've been looking at the various level vorticity since mid-afternoon, stacked on 92L with those tops. We've had this upper level trough over us for days - see here
I think shear often doesn't result as forecast when tropical lows are involved, it seems much more predictable in winter. If shear does kill it short term, which looks likely, when it gets here that energy will make for some good gusty tstorms, etc. However, as it moves further west, you guys on the mainland keep an eye on this... I never discount a disturbance that has unusual staying power, it might lose its organization and impressive appearance on satellite, but the energy is still there.

Regardless of what kind of system may be,it will bring some squally weather this fathers day weekend to the NE Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[bvigal]

Yes, Luis!!
Hey, look at the size of that convection over 3 hrs, compared to the size of Puerto Rico - quite impressive!

[vbhoutex]

Interesting idea about an upper level low. I've been looking at the various level vorticity since mid-afternoon, stacked on 92L with those tops. We've had this upper level trough over us for days - see here
I think shear often doesn't result as forecast when tropical lows are involved, it seems much more predictable in winter. If shear does kill it short term, which looks likely, when it gets here that energy will make for some good gusty tstorms, etc. However, as it moves further west, you guys on the mainland keep an eye on this... I never discount a disturbance that has unusual staying power, it might lose its organization and impressive appearance on satellite, but the energy is still there.

You can bet we will. We've seen them go to almost nothing and then HELLO here I am again. NEVER SAY NEVER in the tropics, especially with conditions the way they are this season.

[AdamFirst]

Is the shear lifting out?

It's a fighter, for sure

[hockeytim19]

I think for the past few hours, 92L has had the perfect amount of shear to help ventilate itself, allowing for some storms to blow up right around the center... but very soon, it will encounter very high shear values (30-40+ kts) and that will effectively shut off this temporary upward pulse of convectionand turn 92L into a naked swirl.

[NDG]

Shear continues to move out of the way, at least for now and 92L is not in such a bad position.

[curtadams]

That convective burst doesn't look like it's occurring in a high shear area. Shear makes convection irregular and stretched out in the direction of the shear.

[HURAKAN]

LOW - 10%

996
ABNT20 KNHC 160525
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS INCREASED TONIGHT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[Brent]

NHC says NEXT, everyone go to bed

I am intrigued tonight but I will wait til morning to see how it looks. My thinking is it will poof again just like the past 2 days.

[ROCK]

I am impressed....didnt see this latest flare-up coming. This is a TD in my book...if the convection persists NHC will have to upgrade. Then again if it runs into 30knts of shear then its decapitation ala Chris back in 06.....



edit to add.....Hey Brent nice to see you still around...

[HURAKAN]

Shear is very strong to the west, convection should have weakened by the morning hours

[Brent]

I am impressed....didnt see this latest flare-up coming. This is a TD in my book...if the convection persists NHC will have to upgrade. Then again if it runs into 30knts of shear then its decapitation ala Chris back in 06.....



edit to add.....Hey Brent nice to see you still around...

HAHA, I'll be around more once we get storms. Not these sorry invests that can't make up their mind.

[Cyclenall]

It's strange, I imagined it would create a single deep burst yesterday and today. NHC isn't budging with their percent numbers.