ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

I think at the very least we are going to see a big rise from then numbers in terms of percentage very soon.

[Cryomaniac]

Visible

the following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise. As such it should not be used for any purpose

That looks like a TD or even a marginal TS to my very amateur eyes.

[Nederlander]

vis is impressive.. i tried to tell everyone not to write this thing off.. just because a system loses convection doesnt mean its done for.. especially with a good center of circulation... on the flip side, just because it has good convection, doesnt mean it will last.. shear is hard to forecast.. but its fun discussing everything, at least it gives us something to do lol

edit: I honestly think the NHC is hesitant to pull the trigger here but I guess they want to see consistency here.. yesterday was the same story, overnight convection then poof and everyone yelled NEXT.. that being said, they should at least upgrade to orange IMO... then if we see sustained convection and shear lifting out, then upgrade to TD status if the conditions allow such status..

[cycloneye]

The latest at 10:15Z

Also,is not moving NW like before as it seems to have a steady WNW movement.

[OURAGAN]

Shear is decreasing slowly in the path of 92L, lifting northwest in tandem with it.

[NDG]

[alan1961]

Makes you wonder what would be happening to 92L if the
current shear its experiencing was lower and really keeping
it from exploding , it seems in a way the shear has
vented it somewhat causing this convective burst, i think
there a few more surprises in store with this little fellow down
the road

[NDG]

92L is a TD, IMO. It has maintained very deep convection now for almost 12 hrs, it still has a very evident small circulation.
Movement seems like it has slowed down a bit also. Windshear over it has increased a little compared to late last night but is holding on to the possible LLC.

[NDG]

15N & 50W looks like is a good center to me as well.

[bvigal]

Here's what NHC thinks - dead:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE CONTINUES TO LAG THE LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED
NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
etc.

[HURAKAN]

805 AM TWD :

" A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N49W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 46W-52W."

[Nimbus]

The convection is catching up with the LLC which is located near the western part of the burst. I don't think the LLC will run out from under the convection this morning but the NHC must feel conditions for development are going to degrade soon or they would have upgraded this to a TD. It does appear to be moving along WNW almost west now.

[NDG]

Here's what NHC thinks - dead:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE CONTINUES TO LAG THE LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED
NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
etc.

Why would you post something that they do not even talk about this system on these two paragraphs?

[tailgater]

Does look like it's holding convection, seems to be a circulation at the surface, water temps are a little higher. But they would probably like to see a west wind or continually increasing organization before upgrading to TD status. With little or no model support and the TUTT so near

[NDG]

As more and more vis pics come in the sat loop the more and more convinced that this is a TD, I am starting to see evidence that it is still has the LLC with evident east moving clouds just to the ssw of the deep convection.

[Blown Away]

This is why we love the tropics, nobody expected 92L to look better today than yesterday. I never give up on a vigorous LLC and especially when deep convection persists near the LLC. The odds are still against 92L but he is surviving.

As we have seen in the past, conditions can change very quickly and the NHC can change their tune very quickly.

[NDG]

BTW, noticed that when I signed on about an hour ago wxman57 was reading this thread but did not post anything, he most not have anything to say against what we are seeing this morning, otherwise he would had posted it.

[cycloneye]

IMO,they may have to look back at this system when post season analysis comes to see what final conclusions they can get with the data.

[NDG]

Notice how 92L continues to catch a break from the strongest windshear, 30-50 knot ws have been keeping away from the system, they have lifted as the system has been moving wnw since yesterday.

[Thunder44]

From the first few visible images, it doesn't like it has closed LLC. All the low-level cloud elements are moving outward from under convection. So I don't think it's TD.