ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[tailgater]

Code Orange again with a 50% chance is my guess with a TCFA later today if continues to show signs of beating the shear.

[Blown Away]

Notice how 92L continues to catch a break from the strongest windshear, 30-50 knot ws have been keeping away from the system, they have lifted as the system has been moving wnw since yesterday.

These systems at times seem to have a mind of their own and take the path of least resistance. I think a shallower 92L is more influenced by the trades and is moving w/ a more westerly component.

[djones65]

I personally believe this system has been a tropical depression for the past 48 hours or so... I agreed with what Aric Dunn and a few others stated previously that this was a depression. With that being said I don't see how it can continue to hold on much longer and it will likely weaken as the day unfolds. But it looked like a depression to me for the past two days and we had buoy data and microwave imagery to confirm a surface circulation, but it did not have a well defined center of circulation until yesterday morning. As drezee stated yesterday this could arguably have been a minimal tropical storm based on the buoy reports from buoy #41041 near 14.5N and 46W when they reported one minute winds of 31.6 knots and gusts over 35 knots as the system passed about 55 miles or so to the south and west and at the time had virtually no deep convection. I think a good argument could have been made that deep convection could have brought down even stronger winds to the surface and could have met the criteria for a minimal storm. Looking at the microwave imagery from 0843 UTC that has been posted previously it appears the center is under the convection but on the western edge, and there still appears to be a surface circulation. It is difficult to imagine NHC upgrading a system to a depression for one or two advisories, but it is the right thing to do in my opinion. This system should be acknowledged as a tropical cyclone forming in the central Atlantic during the first two weeks of June. I believe it has met all criteria necessary even if it does fall apart rapidly later today.

[NDG]

From the first few visible images, it doesn't like it has closed LLC. All the low-level cloud elements are moving outward from under convection. So I don't think it's TD.

I respecfully disagree with you, I see very evident inflow, though weak, on the sw quadrant immediately near the convection of wsw to ene moving low level clouds and the se quadrant has a very strong inflow evidence.

[HURAKAN]

310
ABNT20 KNHC 161144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[NDG]

Notice how 92L continues to catch a break from the strongest windshear, 30-50 knot ws have been keeping away from the system, they have lifted as the system has been moving wnw since yesterday.

These systems at times seem to have a mind of their own and take the path of least resistance. I think a shallower 92L is more influenced by the trades and is moving w/ a more westerly component.

Yeah, maybe not due wnw but more westerly but it has gained a little bit latitude since yesterday.

Anyway, here's a zoomed in shear tendency map which shows the break in the shear in the area where 92L is right now compared to 24hrs ago. Also I was looking at the mid level shear, it is also not strong at all over the system, which is probably what has helped the most with this system keeping its convection during the night.

[bvigal]

Here's what NHC thinks - dead:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE CONTINUES TO LAG THE LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED
NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
etc.

Why would you post something that they do not even talk about this system on these two paragraphs?

Perhaps I should have included more explaination, sorry. My point was that the ABSENCE of even a mention or 'special features' section illustrates what NHC thinks.

[Blown Away]

You can see on the satellite loop 92L getting ready to crash into some much stronger shear.

[HURAKAN]

16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic

remains at 1.5

[Thunder44]

From the first few visible images, it doesn't like it has closed LLC. All the low-level cloud elements are moving outward from under convection. So I don't think it's TD.

I respecfully disagree with you, I see very evident inflow, though weak, on the sw quadrant immediately near the convection of wsw to ene moving low level clouds and the se quadrant has a very strong inflow evidence.

Took a closer look more visible images and I don't really see the clouds on SW quad, moving ENE. In fact, they seem to be just dissapating. I also see a huge outflow boundary now coming out ahead of convection now. It's looking worse on each new visible image I see.

[NDG]

Here's what NHC thinks - dead:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WAVE CONTINUES TO LAG THE LARGE AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM BUT
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ RATHER THAN THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 8N62W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS SLIGHTLY TILTED
NW/SE WITH A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAINLY BETWEEN 13N-16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 54W-59W.
etc.

Why would you post something that they do not even talk about this system on these two paragraphs?

Perhaps I should have included more explaination, sorry. My point was that the ABSENCE of even a mention or 'special features' section illustrates what NHC thinks.

OK, I was wondering.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe this is why there is no upgrade, no convergence.

[cycloneye]

What may be a sure thing that occurs with this disturbance is that some squally weather will move thru the NE Caribbean islands this weekend.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 143N, 508W, 30, 1010, DB

Notice is going west now.

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010061218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010061118, , BEST, 0, 60N, 275W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061200, , BEST, 0, 61N, 284W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061206, , BEST, 0, 61N, 293W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061212, , BEST, 0, 62N, 301W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 321W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061306, , BEST, 0, 67N, 335W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 71N, 349W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061318, , BEST, 0, 77N, 363W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061400, , BEST, 0, 84N, 376W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061406, , BEST, 0, 90N, 388W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061412, , BEST, 0, 97N, 399W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061418, , BEST, 0, 105N, 410W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061500, , BEST, 0, 113N, 421W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061506, , BEST, 0, 122N, 432W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061512, , BEST, 0, 130N, 444W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061606, , BEST, 0, 142N, 490W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 143N, 508W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[HURAKAN]

Why is the best track telling us 1010 mb while the TWD says 1014 mb? Why the difference?

[cycloneye]

Why is the best track telling us 1010 mb while the TWD says 1014 mb? Why the difference?

They updated the pressure to 1011.

AL, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 143N, 508W, 30, 1011, DB

[NDG]

Why is the best track telling us 1010 mb while the TWD says 1014 mb? Why the difference?

Question of the day.
Personally 1014mb estimate is too high to me.

[HURAKAN]

Suffering from shearitis strongtitis ... but needs to be watch over the next few days as the trough lifts northward

[NDG]

From the first few visible images, it doesn't like it has closed LLC. All the low-level cloud elements are moving outward from under convection. So I don't think it's TD.

I respecfully disagree with you, I see very evident inflow, though weak, on the sw quadrant immediately near the convection of wsw to ene moving low level clouds and the se quadrant has a very strong inflow evidence.

Took a closer look more visible images and I don't really see the clouds on SW quad, moving ENE. In fact, they seem to be just dissapating. I also see a huge outflow boundary now coming out ahead of convection now. It's looking worse on each new visible image I see.

Yeah, I see that outflow on the NW quadrant, not too unusual for a weak system to have outflows on the nw quadrant, those ENE moving clouds in the that I was seeing are not there any more and might had been more in the mid levels, tough to tell, but the SE quadrant still has a good se inflow.