ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Dean4Storms]

I think we're seeing shear enhanced convection along nothing more than a wave. I see no sign of a closed surface circulation. But if it slowed down alot it could negate some of the shear.

[HURAKAN]

We all miss QuikSCAT

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130800.GIF

In my opinion there is clearly an LLC, it did not dissipate, but an LLC does not make it a TD. There seemed to be a pocket of good conditions that caused the burst, DMAX perhaps, and now the shear is winning and stripping the convection away. I think what's most important here is how this system was able to almost develop in June in an area that should not see anything close to development.

[bvigal]

:uarrow: We all miss QuikSCAT

DITTO THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That "advanced" on euro sat isn't nearly as good, track too thin, and the timing is about as bad as it gets. If this season is as busy as everyone predicts, we're going to be missing QS a lot more than we do right now.

[cycloneye]

I think what's most important here is how this system was able to almost develop in June in an area that should not see anything close to development.

Agree.Is a bad omen for the rest of the season.

[HURAKAN]

I think what's most important here is how this system was able to almost develop in June in an area that should not see anything close to development.

Agree.Is a bad omen for the rest of the season.

I agree too. When was the last time we were discussing possible development in the central Atlantic in June? Yeah, it's rare.

[vbhoutex]

As stated above, the fact we are even discussing whether 92L has a LLC where it is located in June is rare indeed!!
After taking a look at the visibles and IR I think IF there is a definitive LLC, and I am not sure there is, it is just under the convection on the WSW side. I do not see evidence of "good" inflow from any direction, but there is some inflow towards what I think is a ragged and probably opening LLC. Shear is now getting to the system and I think soon enough we will see the "naked" truth of what we have out there. All that being said, the fact that 92L is still a discussable entity is surprising to me so I am not about to discount any possibilities further down the road.

[cycloneye]

If 92L survives the shear,then,it will get better upper enviroment down the road starting in 48 hours.

[NDG]

As stated above, the fact we are even discussing whether 92L has a LLC where it is located in June is rare indeed!!
After taking a look at the visibles and IR I think IF there is a definitive LLC, and I am not sure there is, it is just under the convection on the WSW side. I do not see evidence of "good" inflow from any direction, but there is some inflow towards what I think is a ragged and probably opening LLC. Shear is now getting to the system and I think soon enough we will see the "naked" truth of what we have out there. All that being said, the fact that 92L is still a discussable entity is surprising to me so I am not about to discount any possibilities further down the road.

I totally agree with you, sooner or later we will see the naked LLC and then most who say there's no LLC will say "oh yeah, there it goes, convection stripped away, is dead", but I think circulation is stronger in the mid levels not so much in lower levels.

[cycloneye]

Below is todays discussion of 92L by Joe Bastardi from Accuweather.

I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

[NDG]

Below is todays discussion of 92L by Joe Bastardi from Accuweather.

I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

Wow, strong words from JB, I totally agree with him, "how do you justify it"

[tolakram]

I think I can clearly see part of the LLC in this shot.

[Blown Away]

Below is todays discussion of 92L by Joe Bastardi from Accuweather.

I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

Wow, strong words from JB, I totally agree with him, "how do you justify it"

I'll tell you, we have a catastrophic oil spill in the GOM and the last thing we need is a false alarm from a system that poses no immediate threat to land and was destined to be sheared to death. IMO, a good non call for PR purposes.

[cycloneye]

This is the omen as I said earlier that 92L brought to the discussion of the 2010 season.Below is the analysis by WeatherUnderground Dr Jeff Masters.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.

[hurricanedude]

The gulf spill should have nothing to do whether a storm is classified, thats obserd. An upgrade to TD certainly would not freak people out. If thats the case then so much for 18 storms..if they cant name them unless there a land threat....hmmmmmm

[vbhoutex]

I have to disagree with JB. Maybe last night for a while it might have been callable, but it definitely isn't now. IF there is a LLC it is very ragged. I just looked at the visibles again and what I am seeing is a system now definitely being worked over by shear. I do understand that people think systems should be called asap if warranted. Two possibilities here-1. not warranted by information NHC has or 2. Parameters used by NHC are marginal and the system is still 3-4 days away from the islands so they aren't going to sound the alarm till they are sure it isn't going to be torn apart by the shear.

[bvigal]

Whoaa! Joe, tell us what you REALLY think, LOL! I appreciate decisiveness, one way or the other. This may have been a td for a couple of days, but it has no future next 48hrs. Or else all the air analysis are fiction. See that red color? That's 40-50kt of shear. Those white lines are increasing shear in past 24hrs.

here's that shear on June 7th, really hasn't moved much.

[HUC]

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Salinity Salinity (SAL): 36.30 psu
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.9 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Station 41NTO near the circulation

[dixiebreeze]

Below is todays discussion of 92L by Joe Bastardi from Accuweather.

I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?

Wow, strong words from JB, I totally agree with him, "how do you justify it"

I also agree this time with JB. Forecasters have no business making tropical storm calls based on PR reasons -- if that's what this is. Last night's flare was pretty impressive and it may fizzle, of course, but at any given time, it is what it is.

[Cryomaniac]

I'll tell you, we have a catastrophic oil spill in the GOM and the last thing we need is a false alarm from a system that poses no immediate threat to land and was destined to be sheared to death. IMO, a good non call for PR purposes.

Calls shouldn't be made (or not) for PR purposes though, they should be made on meteorological grounds only.