ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

Climatology crushing it with its cold hand.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak latest numbers this afternoon.

16/1745 UTC 14.9N 52.0W T1.0/1.5 92L -- Atlantic

[KWT]

Climatology crushing it with its cold hand.

Haha great phrase there, but yeah 92L seems to be suffering the fate that most waves fall upon at this time of year, but to be fair this system has made a much better first of it then most systems this far east do at this time of year!

[lrak]

its naked!

[cycloneye]

Naked but pretty good looking circulation open in the west side.

[Nimbus]

I figured it might do that this afternoon wonder how far it races west before it decides to burst again?

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

They continue to follow the low center,even if is void of convection.

AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB

[TexasF6]

92L is looking ragged now.....

[wxman57]

Surface obs this morning indicated no signs of an LLC, and convection continues to weaken this afternoon under increasing westerly wind shear. It's just a tropical wave in a high shear environment. Even a 10% chance of development would be quite generous.

[KWT]

To be fair wxman57, it does have at the very least a nearly closed off circulation, you can see it clear as day on the Vis imagery cycloneye has put up...however your right in that it is in a high shear conditions now and chances are now very small surely.

[StormClouds63]

92L is just about finished ... I still say 3-4 weeks more until Alex makes his debut. Strong westerlies are prohibiting any significant development right now in the Atlantic basin.

[bvigal]

Take a look at this water vapor loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
The remaining precip is edging some north, some south, but to the west, it looks like it hit a wall!

[cycloneye]

92L is just about finished ... I still say 3-4 weeks more until Alex makes his debut. Strong westerlies are prohibiting any significant development right now in the Atlantic basin.

Maybe not 3-4 weeks but 2-3 weeks as the wet MJO is poised to enter the Atlantic by the end of June and early July.

[lester]

Take a look at this water vapor loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
The remaining precip is edging some north, some south, but to the west, it looks like it hit a wall!

The little train that almost did

[srainhoutx]

Blasphemy! This has been wxman57's image for years on this board.

[Gustywind]

[bvigal]

Blasphemy! This has been wxman57's image for years on this board.

Yes, and so very appropriate, I love it!

[KWT]

Wow that really does look like 92L has hit a brickwall...I think if it doesn't blow up big convection again tonight, the system will probably be de-activated.

[wxman57]

To be fair wxman57, it does have at the very least a nearly closed off circulation, you can see it clear as day on the Vis imagery cycloneye has put up...however your right in that it is in a high shear conditions now and chances are now very small surely.

I saw that small swirl today. Don't think it qualifies as an LLC, though. It's just a small eddy racing ahead of dissipating convection. The mean flow across the system is like that of a wave. Here's a current map. That swirl is now gone. Just a moderate tropical wave with little convection:

[johngaltfla]

40 pages on a maybe.

God help us when the calender rolls over to August 1st.