Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Good morning.It all depends if the system passes over,close or far that the wet weekend will shape up.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST WED JUN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER
AREA WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA TO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT NORTH A LITTLE LATE IN THE
WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO A SIMILAR ORIENTATION NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 830 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
ANTIGUA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING
INTO AN OPEN WAVE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ON FRIDAY AND PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE BOTH PRECEDES AND FOLLOWS THE LOW. ANOTHER WAVE IS STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT CROSSING OVER SAN
JUAN AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A ONE HALF INCH DROP IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER SINCE 15/18Z. A PUFF OF MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WILL FOLLOW ON THROUGH PUERTO
RICO ARRIVING OVER MAYAGUEZ BY 16/20Z. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY. SEVERAL RIVERS WERE SENT BRIEFLY INTO
FLOOD IN SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY DURING THE ACTIVITY
THEN...AND SOME HEAVY RAINS MAY STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER
DRY SLOT...STRONGER THAN THE FIRST...IS OVER SAINT MARTIN AND
SAINT KITTS AT THE MOMENT. IT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN. THIS DRY SLOT IS
JUST AHEAD OF THE WIDE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION AROUND
THE LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 830 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. WITH
EVERYTHING MOVING AROUND 16 TO 17 KNOTS TO THE WEST AND THE
CENTER OF THE BEST CONVECTION IN THE WAVE MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST...WOULD EXPECT THE FIRST EFFECTS OF THIS LOW...FROM THE
CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT...TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. CURRENTLY
THE NAM IS BRINGING EAST NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW INTO PLAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SO SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE FROM
SPORADIC TO NUMEROUS DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND WILL BE
CONCENTRATED...AT LEAST DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AS THE WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE WAVE...SHOWERS FOR THE GREATER SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL...AS
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE CONVECTION...NOW JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. MODELS
STILL SHOW PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE
ENVELOPE OF THE PATH OF THE LOW...BUT SEVERAL MOVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND
HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY RAIN
AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT AS A
MINIMUM FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
SEEM BEST ON FRIDAY OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE WITH CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE WEST CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. VCSH
AND PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS TIST AND TISX DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. TSRA WILL
AFFECT THE FLIGHT AREA ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ...PRODUCING TEMPO MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE SITES BETWEEN 16/17Z TO 16/22Z.
MOUNTAINS OBSCURATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE LOCAL OUTER
WATERS AND PASSAGES TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. AT PRESENT 7 FOOT SEAS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE FRIDAY...BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE AND
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France expect bad weather conditions especially for Friday: rain and tstorms, gustywinds and something to follow for them given therforecast this morning. Let's see if this thing stays as a strong twave or much more...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[bvigal]

Ha, I've said all along it wasn't crossing into Caribbean, but either to our north or right over us. There is some confusion between the 2 waves (one that is tilted over EC right now, and the one that isn't on the map but will be once 92L is no more). I explained it in my weather forecast this morning:

So out there we have a low pressure 92L nearing 50W. It's not even close to the nearest tropical wave, which is already over EC "18N58W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO NEAR 8N62W". The low itself is being ripped by shear, despite an impressive blowup of convection that began 12hrs ago, with cloud tops higher than any seen so far. However, it's likely increased shear aided this blowup, and analysts believe the cyclonic circulation is gone. For days low predicted to open up into a wave, but some discussions are very confusing, so here's a map for 24hrs that shows the current tropical wave passing through the Caribbean and the tropical wave that was 92L moving NW over our area, but note PW product overall moisture mass encompassing both waves. What's evident is 92L has some impressive energy, note buoy readings as it passed yesterday, and tstorms generated as it moves through (beginning Friday) will have stronger than usual winds/gusts, perhaps not yet reflected in usual models.

(excerpt links will only be good until daily update, tomorrow)

So we'll be watching for squalls/tstorms with dangerous lightning and damaging winds, of concern mostly to mariners. When I say damaging, I don't mean strong enough to do damage on land... an unexpected 35kt gust onto a full sail can blow a boat down, rip sail, break human bones, etc. The actual squall might still be a couple of miles away. For someone going ashore from their boat in an 8ft rubber dingy, same gust can get you all wet, along with your cell phone, and definitely ruin your day.

[cycloneye]

This is from Dr Jeff Masters about what message 92L brings for the 2010 season.

Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
According to the Hurricane FAQ, Goldenberg (2000) found that during the period 1944 - 1999, formation of a named storm in the tropical Atlantic south of 22°N and east of 77°W during June and July was a harbinger of at least an average season, and in many cases an above average season. The formation of a storm in this region during June or July is one factor the NOAA and Colorado State University seasonal hurricane forecast teams have used in the past as a predictor for an active season in their early August forecasts. Now, 92L didn't make it to named storm status, though it was pretty close to being a tropical depression. However, the near-formation of 92L into a tropical depression, is, in my mind, a clear harbinger that we can expect a severe hurricane season this year. It's very rare to have a development like 92L in that portion of the tropical Atlantic this early in the season. The lower than average wind shear and higher than average SSTs that helped 92L get organized are more likely than not to carry over into the main portion of hurricane season, giving us a much more active hurricane season than normal.

[cycloneye]

RWSPR

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST WED JUN 16 2010

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WINDS HAVE BECOME EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...INCREASED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS SLIM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
131 PM AST WED JUN 16 2010

PRC007-021-025-045-047-051-061-063-101-105-107-127-135-139-143-
162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0199.100616T1731Z-100616T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
OROCOVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-
VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
131 PM AST WED JUN 16 2010

FLOOD ADVISORY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...COROZAL...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...
OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA
ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 127 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE GREATER SAN
JUAN METRO AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORMING IN A LINE OFF THE ISLAND
OF CULEBRA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

The wet weekend is looking more and more likely for the NE Caribbean. Oh Barbara,Saturday looks like will be the rainest day in Puerto Rico. That means that for you in St Maarten friday and friday night will be the most wet.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 PM AST WED JUN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT JUST NORTHEAST OF PR IS TO DRIFT NORTH AS RIDGE
ACROSS THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WEST TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG 52W IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FRI.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WILL ADVECT QUICKLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TUTT
LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF PR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR TOMORROW
MORNING. WE DISCUSSED ABOUT ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ERN
THIRD OF PR FOR TOMORROW MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY COULD CERTAINLY
POSE A RISK OF FLOODING. SHOULD SEE BETTER CVRG AND MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF DUE TO
BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS IS TO
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FRI. NE WINDS SHOULD FOCUS ACTIVITY OVR THE
SOUTH COAST FRI AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED AXIS INDICATED IN ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SAT WITH MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE TO ENCROACH
THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WAVE AXIS BUT ALL AGREE THAT WE SHOULD SEE SIG RAINS SAT-SAT NIGHT.
12Z ECWMF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AND 12Z GFES ENSEMBLE MEAN RIGHT OVR PR. ALL 12Z BAM MODELS SHOW
VORTEX PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA SUGGESTING THAT HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
OCCUR IN OUR VICINITY. SO OVERALL MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
WILL SEE SIG RAINS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

WAVE MOVES INTO HISPANIOLA SUN BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS SO ANTICIPATE YOUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH 16/23Z...EXCLUDING TJMZ...WHERE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN A SHRA OR TSRA. AFT
16/23Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES...WITH A VCSH OR -SHRA EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
TKPK...TNCM AND THE USVI BY 17/13Z. LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[msbee]

The wet weekend is looking more and more likely for the NE Caribbean. Oh Barbara,Saturday looks like will be the rainest day.



Luis, as much as I pray for rain, I don't want too much at one time and I don't want it on Saturday !

[cycloneye]

The wet weekend is looking more and more likely for the NE Caribbean. Oh Barbara,Saturday looks like will be the rainest day.



Luis, as much as I pray for rain, I don't want too much at one time and I don't want it on Saturday !

Well,it is possible that Friday and Friday night may be the timeframe for St Maarten instead of Saturday It all depends on how fast or not the system moves.

[bvigal]

Barbara, if it makes you feel any better, 12z GFS doesn't look like a LOT of rain Saturday.


But looks like wind will pick up late afternoon. Here's the view via windguru:

[tropicana]

REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY

Wed Jun 16 2010

Wednesday's Highs and Rain (if any)


Piarco, Trinidad 32.8C 91F 0.3mm
Maraval, W. Trinidad 32.8C 91F 0.3mm
Point-a-Pierre, SW Trinidad 30.6C 87F 3.6mm
Couva, C. Trinidad 30.6C 87F 6.1mm
Crown Point, Tobago 31.8C 89F trace

Point Salines, Grenada 30.2C 86F
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 32.8C 91F 4.4mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 30.6C 87F 2.6mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 31.9C 90F
Hewannora, St Lucia 32.1C 90F 1.9mm


Canefield, Dominica 32.8C 91F 2.8mm
Melville Hall, Dominica 31.6C 89F 0.8mm
Le Lamentin, Martinique 32.2C 90F 11.2mm
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe 31.6C 89F 17.8mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.9C 87F 4.0mm
VC Bird, Antigua 31.7C 89F 0.2mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F

Kingston, Jamaica 33.4C 92F
Montego Bay, Jamaica 33.4C 92F
Owen Roberts, Cayman Islands 33.2C 92F
Havana, Cuba 34.2C 94F
Key West, Florida 32.2C 90F
Miami, Florida 33.7C 93F trace


Nassau, Bahamas 33.8C 93F 0.2mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 26.4C 80F

-justin-

[msbee]

The wet weekend is looking more and more likely for the NE Caribbean. Oh Barbara,Saturday looks like will be the rainest day.



Luis, as much as I pray for rain, I don't want too much at one time and I don't want it on Saturday !

Well,it is possible that Friday and Friday night may be the timeframe for St Maarten instead of Saturday It all depends on how fast or not the system moves.

Thanks Luis
let's hope for that then. We have put a lot of planning into this event. it would be a shame if we had to cancel it. So we'll wait and see.

[Hugo1989]

Que ha pasado con la baja presion 92L??? creen que en algun momento se organize mejor antes de llegar al mar caribe o en su punto mas cerca de Puerto Rico??? e=que los expertos del foro me digan que pueda pasar....

[cycloneye]

Que ha pasado con la baja presion 92L??? creen que en algun momento se organize mejor antes de llegar al mar caribe o en su punto mas cerca de Puerto Rico??? e=que los expertos del foro me digan que pueda pasar....

La baja presion se ha debilitado.Pero comoquiera tentremos un evento de lluvia para el fin de semana.

The system has weakened but we can expect a rain event for the weekend.

[Hugo1989]

La degradaron a onda tropical, yo creo que el evento de lluvia no sera tan significativo. Seguiremos esperando las proximas ondas a ver como se comportan.

[cycloneye]

Now a open wave:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION... THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[msbee]

[quote="bvigal"]Barbara, if it makes you feel any better, 12z GFS doesn't look like a LOT of rain Saturday.
[
But looks like wind will pick up late afternoon. Here's the view via windguru:

thanks
that does make me feel better