ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Sanibel]

Reminds me of last year. That would be something if we had more dry air layer intrusion this year and the forecast was a big bust!

[caribepr]

Reminds me of last year. That would be something if we had more dry air layer intrusion this year and the forecast was a big bust!

That would be something great!

[cycloneye]

Open Tropical Wave

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION... THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[Cookie]

dose that mean it has been deactivated?

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Invest not deactivated yet as ATCF continues to track the naked circulation.

AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[wxman57]

It won't officially be classified as La Nina until the SSTs are averaged to be -0.5C or less for three consecutive months. That'll be around peak season.

[cycloneye]

It won't officially be classified as La Nina until the SSTs are averaged to be -0.5C or less for three consecutive months. That'll be around peak season.

That timeframe started on June 14 when Climate Prediction Center in the weekly update had Nino 3.4 at -0.5C.

For those who like to see all about ENSO,go here

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, the question now is, when will the shear in the carib subside? How many more weeks/months will it last?

[ROCK]

as suspected 92 went the way of Chris in 06....I still say this was a TD a few days ago...JMO though...

[JTD]

If you go through history, specifically years such as 1933, 1995, 2005, etc., hyperactive seasons all (not just average seasons but insane), a staple of them has been a significant June cyclone. The fact that we're not likely to see a cyclone form in June due to factors such as the MJO not being phased correctly at the moment in the Atlantic to help kickstart storms in combination with the fate that met 92L in combination with the dry air/shear in that area has me seriously questioning whether or not this season will come close to meeting the high-end projections. I think there's little chance that this year will equate to 2005 now. I could be wrong, of course.

I should add that the Gulf of Mexico can absolutely not sustain any cyclone activity of any sort whatsoever right now; so, we should all pray that 92L's bust is, indeed, a early sign that we are looking at a typical season, not a 2005 redux.

I should also add that I found the La Nina to Neutral to El Nino average storm numbers fascinating. La Nina years have just a few more storms than El Nino storms do interestingly enough. It takes neutral to have an insane season on the average.

Now I don't doubt that 2010 will have several majors and possibly even a cat 4/5, but for the moment, I am going to remain firmly in the skeptical camp about just how active this year will be. If I had to do over it again, I would lower my numbers substantiially from the 20 that I went with in May in the S2K poll.

If I had to guess, I think we'll see a year analgous to 1996, 1998 or 1999. Upon further review, it appears that even 1999 had a June storm, Arlene, and it was on June 11th! 2010 is falling behind. 1998 didn't begin until July 27th though and was a very bad year with Georges. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we don't ramp up for a signfiicant period yet to come.

[hurricaneCW]

It's unlikely for any season to equate to 2005 as that season is a once in a lifetime type of season. As far as the shear and dry air goes, it's not August, its mid June and wind shear is still quite high. I'd say it's pretty typical for mid June and the dry air is actually less than you would expect for June.

The Gulf of Mexico can easily sustain a tropical cyclone, it's starting to boil in the gulf, well above the threshold needed. Any disturbance that enters could develop in the gulf if the shear is favorable.

The whole neutral vs la nina thing makes me skeptical. Both favor above normal activity, it really doesn't matter than neutral has slightly more than a la nina. Please note that we never had to deal with a la nina with water temperatures as high as this year in the Atlantic and that will play a part in how many storms we see.

People underestimate just how many storms can stir up when things get active. June can be quiet and maybe we only see a storm or two in July. Than August and September come and we get no breaks, just storm after storm, we could easily see 7 or more storms per month especially this season. October could be active as well giving us a few more storms, add one in November, one or two in July, and 20 storms or more doesn't become so far-fetched anymore.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Oh and I see TD's post above about June storms, I remain firmly convinced there is NO correlation. We would only need an AVERAGE of 5 storms in July-October to get to 20. Easily manageable(I'm sure August/September will probably have more than that). This season could easily compete with 2005 still, just because we're behind it now doesn't mean we can't catch up. 2005 had lulls with no storms... Could the season be slow? Sure it could... the predictions could all be wrong, but with SST's at record levels I'm afraid they won't be. As much as I love tracking hurricanes, the last thing I want to see is a major in the Gulf with the current oil spill, but that's a story I hope we don't have to deal with.

Now if July is slow, well, the odds of 20 storms goes down significantly, but we're talking weeks from now! Way too early to tell. I've seen the Atlantic be dead one week and the next week have 3-4 storms at once. You can't predict anything based on June when climo is against many storms.

[Gustywind]

[bob rulz]

If you go through history, specifically years such as 1933, 1995, 2005, etc., hyperactive seasons all (not just average seasons but insane), a staple of them has been a significant June cyclone. The fact that we're not likely to see a cyclone form in June due to factors such as the MJO not being phased correctly at the moment in the Atlantic to help kickstart storms in combination with the fate that met 92L in combination with the dry air/shear in that area has me seriously questioning whether or not this season will come close to meeting the high-end projections. I think there's little chance that this year will equate to 2005 now. I could be wrong, of course.

I should add that the Gulf of Mexico can absolutely not sustain any cyclone activity of any sort whatsoever right now; so, we should all pray that 92L's bust is, indeed, a early sign that we are looking at a typical season, not a 2005 redux.

I should also add that I found the La Nina to Neutral to El Nino average storm numbers fascinating. La Nina years have just a few more storms than El Nino storms do interestingly enough. It takes neutral to have an insane season on the average.

Now I don't doubt that 2010 will have several majors and possibly even a cat 4/5, but for the moment, I am going to remain firmly in the skeptical camp about just how active this year will be. If I had to do over it again, I would lower my numbers substantiially from the 20 that I went with in May in the S2K poll.

If I had to guess, I think we'll see a year analgous to 1996, 1998 or 1999. Upon further review, it appears that even 1999 had a June storm, Arlene, and it was on June 11th! 2010 is falling behind. 1998 didn't begin until July 27th though and was a very bad year with Georges. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we don't ramp up for a signfiicant period yet to come.

There's still almost 2 weeks of June left, that's plenty of time for us to get a June storm, possibly even a significant one if conditions are favorable. I think you're making observations that are just impossible to make at this point in the hurricane season.

[KWT]

If you go through history, specifically years such as 1933, 1995, 2005, etc., hyperactive seasons all (not just average seasons but insane), a staple of them has been a significant June cyclone. The fact that we're not likely to see a cyclone form in June due to factors such as the MJO not being phased correctly at the moment in the Atlantic to help kickstart storms in combination with the fate that met 92L in combination with the dry air/shear in that area has me seriously questioning whether or not this season will come close to meeting the high-end projections. I think there's little chance that this year will equate to 2005 now. I could be wrong, of course.

I should add that the Gulf of Mexico can absolutely not sustain any cyclone activity of any sort whatsoever right now; so, we should all pray that 92L's bust is, indeed, a early sign that we are looking at a typical season, not a 2005 redux.

I should also add that I found the La Nina to Neutral to El Nino average storm numbers fascinating. La Nina years have just a few more storms than El Nino storms do interestingly enough. It takes neutral to have an insane season on the average.

Now I don't doubt that 2010 will have several majors and possibly even a cat 4/5, but for the moment, I am going to remain firmly in the skeptical camp about just how active this year will be. If I had to do over it again, I would lower my numbers substantiially from the 20 that I went with in May in the S2K poll.
.

2010 will be the type of season that will probably be able to catch up with most of the seasons within a 2-3 week period in July I suspect...

The simple truth is you'd be foolish to write off a season just because there isn't anything occuring in June...but I did say when you have a developing La Nina you just don't tend to get much activity in June or July for that matter. But as 2004 and 1969 proved very nicely, you can still have nothing in the first two months and have a hyper season, at least in terms of ACE.

Simple truth is, even if you took away the early storms from 2005, you'd still have ended up with over 20 storms...and to say we are falling behind when one storm developing would bring us right back to average is a bit foolish...come back in August when we still aren't even close to some of the bigger seasons (and of course we were never going to match 2005, that was a perfect year IMO)

[cycloneye]

:blowup:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Oh and I see TD's post above about June storms, I remain firmly convinced there is NO correlation. We would only need an AVERAGE of 5 storms in July-October to get to 20. Easily manageable(I'm sure August/September will probably have more than that). This season could easily compete with 2005 still, just because we're behind it now doesn't mean we can't catch up. 2005 had lulls with no storms... Could the season be slow? Sure it could... the predictions could all be wrong, but with SST's at record levels I'm afraid they won't be. As much as I love tracking hurricanes, the last thing I want to see is a major in the Gulf with the current oil spill, but that's a story I hope we don't have to deal with.

Now if July is slow, well, the odds of 20 storms goes down significantly, but we're talking weeks from now! Way too early to tell. I've seen the Atlantic be dead one week and the next week have 3-4 storms at once. You can't predict anything based on June when climo is against many storms.

You forgot a big factor,La Nina by the peak of the season,which means less windshear and lower pressures in Atlantic.

[NDG]

92L has so much potential, PW values with this disturbance are high, is amazing the cyclonic flow that it still has, no LLC but still a strong cyclonic flow. Looks like the disturbance could have the best chance of doing something if it moves straight west into the central Caribbean, where models, even the euro, forecast better UL conditions to set up in a few days. Heck even the euro is forecasting a little better UL conditions when it is near PR in a couple of days.

[tolakram]

If you go through history, specifically years such as 1933, 1995, 2005, etc., hyperactive seasons all (not just average seasons but insane), a staple of them has been a significant June cyclone. The fact that we're not likely to see a cyclone form in June due to factors such as the MJO not being phased correctly at the moment in the Atlantic to help kickstart storms in combination with the fate that met 92L in combination with the dry air/shear in that area has me seriously questioning whether or not this season will come close to meeting the high-end projections. I think there's little chance that this year will equate to 2005 now. I could be wrong, of course.

That's absurd, as pointed out earlier. The fact we almost had a TD in an area that should see no activity in June should concern you, if you are really being serious. We do not have enough data to predict a season based on June activity. Now go to the season cancel thread to post this foolishness.

[gatorcane]

I think the posters above are right on regarding what we are seeing now in the Atlantic. June is typically an inactive month for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and is in no way a measure of how the rest of the season will playout. I want to share this NHC article with you that discusses possible correlations between active/inactive June/July with how active/inactive the rest of the season will be:

"Subject: G7) Does an active June and July mean the rest of the season will be busy too?"
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G7.html

Actually, it wouldn't surprise me if we go another 10+ days without anything with real potential in the Atlantic, possibly beyond that where we may not even get a named storm in June (see my reasons in the Long-term models thread in Talkin Tropics forum)

That said, we all know the conditions in the Atlantic are lining up for an active season. The shear typically doesn't really start to drop off until August though but I am thinking that we may see some drop-off in July, earlier this year than typical years. I do expect at least 2 or even 3 storms before August still and a very busy August-October. So it will only be a matter of time until things really crank up.