Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Que ha pasado con la baja presion 92L??? creen que en algun momento se organize mejor antes de llegar al mar caribe o en su punto mas cerca de Puerto Rico??? e=que los expertos del foro me digan que pueda pasar....

La baja presion se ha debilitado.Pero comoquiera tentremos un evento de lluvia para el fin de semana.

The system has weakened but we can expect a rain event for the weekend.

Thank you for the translation, Luis

[Macrocane]

Good evening. Heavy rainfall was registered yesterday in some salvadorian stations, some places received more than 100 mm/4 inches of rain in just 24 hours. I will try to post the observations of temperature and precipitation in some places of El Salvador every day.

Precipitation from 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today
Acajutla 25 mm/0.98 inches
Santa Ana 29 mm/1.14 inches
San Salvador 27 mm/1.06 inches
Santiago de Maria 140 mm/5.51 inches
San Miguel 15 mm0.59 inches
Perquin 67 mm/2.63 inches

Temperatures June 15 2010

Code: Select all

Acajutla     min:22.1°C/71.8°F     max:31.1°C/88.0°F
Santa Ana     min:20.1°C/68.2°F     max:30.5°C/86.9
San Salvador     min:20°C/68°F          max:29.8°C/85.6°F
Las Pilas     min:13.2°C/55.8°F     max:20.7°C/69.3°F
San Miguel     min:23.4°C/74.1°F     max:32.8°C/91.0°F

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST WED JUN 16 2010

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET...BUT AS A RESULT SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
WERE ISSUED.

AT 0100Z...NWS DOPPLER RADAR BEGAN TO DETECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND IN THE VICINITY OF ST CROIX. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE AS DEEP MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ADVECTS QUICKLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
TUTT LOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PR. THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN PR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND INTENSE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
ZERO PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Its raining hard in San Juan this morning as a wave in front of stronger wave (92L) moves thru today.All still points towards a wet weekend.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HAITI. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH LATE JUNE.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
20 TO 33 NORTH AND CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF JUNE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 56 WEST WITH A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION NEAR 15 DEGREES NORTH WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND
CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
OVER PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 19/02-12Z...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
PERHAPS FOUR HOURS EARLIER. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WAS PASSING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART
OF TODAY...THURSDAY...AND IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND
HEAVY RAIN INTO PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS
HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC FROM AGUADILLA TO
CABEZAS DE SAN JUAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AND INCREASE
SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE FROM THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND IT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ONLY EASE
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE GFS AND THE NAM ONCE AGAIN SHOWED SOME CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. THE GFS SHOWS THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH SAN JUAN
AROUND 19/02Z AND IS IN LINE WITH THE EXTRAPOLATED MOTION THAT CAN
BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT TAKES THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF THE AREA AND HAS LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVE. THE NAM
SHOWS THE WAVE BECOMING MORE VIGOROUS AND DOES NOT LET IT PASS
UNTIL 19/15Z. SURFACE AND 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MARKEDLY SOUTHEAST
IN THE NAM AFTER 19/15Z. THE ECMWF SHOWS PASSAGE AROUND 19/10Z
WITH BETTER MOISTURE THAN THE GFS...BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS WITH THE
NAM AND SEEMS LIKE THE BEST COMPROMISE SOLUTION. WILL SLOW THE
WAVE JUST A FEW HOURS FROM THE GFS SOLUTION TO ALLOW FOR SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE NAM
ALSO HAS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS WOULD DIMINISH BOTH THE RAIN AND THE GUSTY WINDS
CONSIDERABLY...BUT DO NOT CONSIDER THIS SOLUTION AS CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF ALL THE FEATURES THAT HAVE TRAVERSED THE
LOCAL AREA IN THE LAST 72 HOURS. THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE PATH
OF THE NAM AND THE CURRENT EXTRAPOLATED TRAJECTORY JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA THAT WILL LINGER PAST SUNDAY AND HAVE INCREASED THE POPS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS WITH MORE CERTAINTY THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD WARRANTED. MOISTURE DOES NOT ABATE VERY
MUCH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY
MORNINGS. A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE COMING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
MOST LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHRA AND
ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AT LEAST
UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ IN A
TSRA FROM 17/17-17/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE GFS REFLECTS STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS WAVE AND SHOWS
INCREASED SEAS...THE NAM HAD EVEN MORE WINDS. BUT HAVE HELD WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN LIMITING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO THE FAR NORTH PORTION OF OUR
ATLANTIC WATERS. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS IN MANY
ZONES DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE AND MARINERS SHOULD CONSIDER THE
GUSTY NATURE OF THE WINDS IN TROPICAL WAVES AND THE INCREASED
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WHEN DEPARTING PORT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

This is how Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands look today,wet,because of a disturbance in front of 92L.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
745 AM AST THU JUN 17 2010

PRC029-031-033-061-087-119-127-137-171345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0200.100617T1145Z-100617T1345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
745 AM AST THU JUN 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN...LOIZA...
RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 945 AM AST

* AT 743 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER SAN JUAN METRO AREA. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA THROUGH 945 AM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1028 AM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE ISLAND SO
FAR TODAY...EXPECT GOOD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. IN
ADDITION...STREAMERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY
INDICATED THIS POTENTIAL...AND NO CHANGES NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...TKPK
AND TISX THROUGH 17/23Z...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES IN PASSING SHRA OR TSRA. THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...WHERE BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL BE ONCE
AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY. LLVL WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN EASTERLY
AT 15 TO 20 KTS TODAY.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Convection on the increase in spite of the shear...

[Hugo1989]

En ese mapa se puede apreciar que a pesar de la fuerza de los vientos cortantes el sistema se ve co bastante nubosidad.

[cycloneye]

En ese mapa se puede apreciar que a pesar de la fuerza de los vientos cortantes el sistema se ve co bastante nubosidad.

El systema se mantiene bastante convectivo hoy pero no al punto de ser depression tropical en estos momentos.

The system has more convection today but,no organization is seen at this time.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1142 AM AST THU JUN 17 2010

PRC037-053-069-089-103-171845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0201.100617T1542Z-100617T1845Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-HUMACAO PR-
1142 AM AST THU JUN 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 1141 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. DUE TO OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SAME AREA EARLIER
THIS MORNING...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WITH
THESE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

[msbee]

Rain rain go away,
Come again another day.

[cycloneye]

Rain rain go away,
Come again another day.

I like that Seriously,this may bring squalls in some of the heavy showers so we have to prepare for that.

[Macrocane]

Rainfall between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today in El Salvador:
Acajutla 45 mm/1.77 inches
Santa Ana 31 mm/1.22 inches
San Salvador 27 mm/1.06 inches
San Vicente 94 mm/3.7 inches (yesterday's highest amount).
San Miguel 5 mm/0.2 inches
La Union 27 mm/1.06 inches

Temperatures June 16 2010

Code: Select all

Acajutla           Min:21.5°C/70.7°F    Max:30.2°C/86.4°F
Santa Ana          Min:19.8°C/67.6°F    Max:30.2°C/86.4°F
San Salvador       Min:20.4°C/68.7°F    Max:29.9°C/85.8°F
Las Pilas          Min:14.5°C/58.1°F    Max:21.5°C/70.7°F
San Miguel         Min:23.1°C/73.6°F    Max:34.5°C/94.1°F

[msbee]

Macrocane
Is Las pilas in the mountains? The temperature is nice and cool there.

[cycloneye]

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ700-180815-
344 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE
EVENING HOURS. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 59W THIS
MORNING...WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER WITH THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS.

AMZ710-180815-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
344 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...

.TONIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 14 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRIDAY...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO
6 FEET. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...EAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 17 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.TUESDAY...EAST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW EXTENDING ALMOST
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARDS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND SPREADS NORTH
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH LEADING EDGE
NOW NEAR 59W AND QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT MOVED
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. THIS ACTIVE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...SHOWED A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT
FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE MOISTURE
FRAGMENTS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...THEN REACH THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY MORNING.

EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE BY NOON ON FRIDAY AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THEREAFTER... EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO SPREAD FURTHER WEST
AND DETERIORATE EVEN MORE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FIRST AFFECT EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS... THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY. BY LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT
INCREASED CONVECTION AND ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
AS THE WAVES MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON
PRESENT MOVEMENT AND LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS... EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FOLLOWED
TRAILING SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LIKELY FOR LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IF NOT BEFORE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY...EASTERLY LLVL WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 18/12Z. SHRA AND
TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NEAR TJMZ WILL LINGER
THROUGH 17/22Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS AND A VCSH POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. EXPECT INCREASED SHRA AND
TSRA ACTIVITY TO BEING ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 18/00Z...REACHING
THE USVI BY 18/06Z...AND TJSJ BY 1810Z. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED
AGAIN OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL TOMORROW...WITH MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJPS AS FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT
MORE NORTHEASTERLY.