Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

talk about lower pressures in the carib....jeez...waiting for this run to play out...

[BigA]

Interesting little "low rider" system in the 00 GFS run. It closes off at 108 hours, and maintains itself up to the 180 hour resolution change, when it is approaching the southern Lesser Antilles/South America. By then it has 2 closed isobars. Could be the system the ECMWF was picking up yesterday.

[USTropics]

Looking at the 500mb vorticity of the 06z GFS run, the energy of our low rider originates from 30-40W area, which would be the wave currently embedded in the ITCZ. The ECMWF is picking up on a wave expected to emerge off of the coast of Africa in 72-96 hours. Although the latest ECMWF run is still showing an impressive wave emerging off of Africa at this time, it doesn't do much with it thereafter.

[KWT]

Yeah really all the models are sort of hinting at conditions being borderline down there in the MDR, which makes sense givn 92L had a good crack at it. I'd have thought if 92L couldn't make I doubt the others will, but remains to be seen.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps has 2 storms in the western caribbean

[Scorpion]

NOGAPS has continually advertised development that hasn't verified. I'll believe it when I see it.

[tolakram]

I asked once if nogaps has ever been right and someone answered yes. So ... when?

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro has a tropical storm hitting the Yucatan

[KWT]

Both the GFS and the ECM have been sorta suggesting possible weak development for a while. Whether or not it actually occurs it does seem quite clear we are at the time where we can sustain tropical development.

[cycloneye]

It was supposed that GFS was going to be upgraded on the 22nd of June,but they posponed it to July 27th.See information at hyperlink below.

GFS Upgrade on July 27

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis,

It says the upgrade takes place July 27, not June 27.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

It says the upgrade takes place July 27, not June 27.

Yes,all is fixed now.Nobody is perfect.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

[BigA]

That's a solid cyclone the Euro's got on the 12z run, albeit at 240 hours (though it appears to form a decent bit sooner than that in the Caribbean)

Ivanhater, do you have the link to the higher res EURO model that you posted? Much thanks.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, here you go buddy.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/ecmwf.html

[jasons2k]

Sheesh, forget 92L. I think the Euro has shown this on a few runs now...

[srainhoutx]

Agree Jason. It actually has been showing up for several days in varying strength. With the 00Z run last night the 850 vort has increased each run. We need to keep an eye on this as Upper Air pattern is becoming favorable and lower pressures as well a favorable MJO pulse are all coming together to what may prove to be an interesting development.

[USTropics]

The 12z ECMWF begins development around 12N 79W in 120 hours, a distance of 2161 miles from the wave currently located at 12N 47W (an average speed of 18mph/15kt). The ECMWF has been consistent with development of this system in the last 3-4 runs. The 12z CMC run also shows a weak vorticity forming in the Caribbean from this wave. The 12z GFS brings the 12N 47W wave through the northern part of South America and then appears to move it through Central America into the Pacific, with weak development of the wave currently at 10N 30W. The 12z NOGAPS has a similar setup to that of the GFS. Regardless, the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and WRF models all have decreasing shear values throughout the Caribbean in the 4-5 day range, and both scenarios should need to be monitored.

[BigA]

Perhaps what the ECMWF and CMC (and to an extent NOGAPS are picking up is the area of disturbed weather around 7 north, 35 west.