ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[x-y-no]

Hmmm ... well if the TUTT lifts north and ridging keeps this moving westward, then maybe it gets out of the shear a little quicker than I anticipate.

[Ivanhater]

Hmmm ... well if the TUTT lifts north and ridging keeps this moving westward, then maybe it gets out of the shear a little quicker than I anticipate.

That's what I'm watching for. If you look at the shear tendency, it shows the decreasing shear from south to north as the TUTT lifts north...timing is important on this one

[jaxfladude]

This one is a fighter( ).

[cycloneye]

The latest image at 20:15 UTC.

[gatorcane]

The convection is building because it is interacting with the shear (TUTT). There so much shear around that I just don't think it has much of a chance. It needs to get about 3 days more west and if it keeps doing so will end up interacting with the large islands anyway. Not concerned at all.

[Nimbus]

The TUTT is forecast to take at least 48 hours to lift out. It does appear ridging will slip in underneath building from south to north. Assuming the BAMS track, the islands will be raked by squalls which is important for the beach forecasts. If there is anything left by the time this wave reaches Jamaica maybe things will get interesting then. 48 hours of shear sounds like an eternity but there still should be a fairly sharp wave formation.

[Ivanhater]

The convection is building because it is interacting with the shear (TUTT) which is not surprising. There so much shear around that I just don't think it has much of a chance. It needs to get about 3 days more west and if it keeps doing so will end up interacting with the large islands anyway. Not concerned at all.

The TUTT does not cause a concentrated blowup of storms over the center, that is the storm itself. The storms further north; however, are caused by the interaction with the TUTT.

Notice the center that has tightened today right before it got tucked under the storms. Also very evident of inflow channels meaning there are inner dynamics causing the blowup over the center. The TUTT is not the only thing at work here

[cycloneye]

The convection is building because it is interacting with the shear (TUTT). There so much shear around that I just don't think it has much of a chance. It needs to get about 3 days more west and if it keeps doing so will end up interacting with the large islands anyway. Not concerned at all.

Tropical disturbances can survive mountains because they dont have a strong core like a hurricane that get disrupted rapidly as soon the eye goes anywhere inland.

[Blown Away]

TAFB tagged 92L as a low for the next 24 hours then back to a wave at 48 & 72 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[gatorcane]

The convection is building because it is interacting with the shear (TUTT). There so much shear around that I just don't think it has much of a chance. It needs to get about 3 days more west and if it keeps doing so will end up interacting with the large islands anyway. Not concerned at all.

Tropical disturbances can survive mountains because they dont have a strong core like a hurricane that get disrupted rapidly as soon the eye goes anywhere inland.

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True but have you seen the dry air waiting for 92L just north of the Greater Antilles? Between that, the presence of some shear (albeit not as strong as what it is seeing now), and land interaction, I just don't see it making a comeback at all and no named system out of this. Now as you said, expect some squalls and side effects in Puerto Rico and Northern Leewards for sure, but pretty much what you would get from any tropical wave moving through this time of year.

[OuterBanker]

Cycloneye, exactly my point. Mets, correct me if I'm wrong. TD's and open waves have a better chance of surviving the Haiti/DR mountains.

Cyclogenesis can occur when it emerges into the bathwater of the Gulf.

That is my biggest fear.

[tailgater]

Check out this five day loop out and draw your own conclusions, especially the last few frames in the eastern Caribbean.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 1java.html

I posted this a few days ago but it clearly shows the Upper trough lifting in the eastern Caribbean, thing is will it continue.

[NDG]

Interesting how the 12z gfs develops a weak TD for 12z tomorrow out ot this invest, forecasting a break in the shear as it passes the islands during the night and early morning.
This is no ordinary tropical wave, it has a lot of energy.

[cycloneye]

This web cam is from ST Maarten and shows those cumulus clouds moving from the NNE.Also far away,you can see a tall cloud complex,a leading band.

You can see this and many cams at the Caribbean thread (In the first post) on U.S. & Caribbean forum.

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe should be in yellow during the next couple of hours if not at 6 PM given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. We continue to monitor carefully 92L in vicinity of Guadeloupe and the rest of the Leewards islands...

[tailgater]

Beautiful Luis. wish I was on that ship

[Ivanhater]

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been required for Martinica, Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards...
http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

[cycloneye]

Night comming soon.

[AdamFirst]

It looks stationary, or is that the shear playing tricks on my eyes?