ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Patrick99]

You have to admit it looks better than it did. At least it doesn't have that "ran into brick wall" appearance.

At any rate, it's been fun tracking this invest. Look at its track, it looks like a classic September hurricane track.

[Ivanhater]

Easy to see what the NWS in San Juan was referring to about the TUTT lifting north as upper ridge builds in after looking at the new NAM.

6 hours


24 hours





48 hours

[Gustywind]

[jasons2k]

At any rate, it's been fun tracking this invest. Look at its track, it looks like a classic September hurricane track.

Good observation and that's the point I was trying to drive home earlier.

Naysayers are already writing the season off and here we are, tracking a Cape Verde wave (at times Depression?) in June.

June, people...June. A Cape Verde system in June. Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding......

[bob rulz]

Question, why would they issue code yellow, but say there is a 0% chance of forming in the next 48hrs

I still think this has a shot in a few days.

That just means that, while they don't think it has a chance of forming in the next 48 hours, that it's a disturbance that's still worth keeping an eye on.

[Gustywind]

Big bright burst just east of the Leewards continue to pop very nicely. Tstorms and rain should occur tonight and spread over us especially tommorow, so very wet weather conditions in tape!

[RL3AO]

Naysayers are already writing the season off and here we are

They should be smacked and forced to stare at a calendar the rest of the season.

[lester]

Naysayers are already writing the season off and here we are

They should be smacked and forced to stare at a calendar the rest of the season.

And eat a bucketful of crow.

[KWT]

Hmmm this system is still fighting...if this does get decent conditions its probably going to end up developing, waves like that which keep flaring up and showing good presentation even with strong shear more often then not do develop if they get good conditions aloft.

The key question is will it get that shot.

As others have said we've been tracking a wave/borderline TD at times for a long time now, I can't think of many invests that have been tracked this long in July yet alone in June...

[Ivanhater]

GFS on average has only 10 kts of shear in the next couple of days as 92L moves west

[KWT]

Also worth noting its starting to look like it did yesterday morning when the conditions aloft were very divergent...

I think the jet may have moved northwards slightly back to possibly semi-favourable place for at least convection to keep itself going over the center.

All ebbs and flows however and this could soon find itself under the hammer again.

[Hurricane Andrew]

It's not even close to the D-Max yet! TD-1 on the horizon?

[Ivanhater]

[RL3AO]

It's not even close to the D-Max yet! TD-1 on the horizon?

Looks like it found some upper divergence. My guess is it will flare over the next few days, but won't develop because of shear.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd agree, the convection is decent and as RL3AO it seems to be in a fairly divergent region right now in terms of upper patterns with the jet streak probably helping the system.

[Fego]

Allow me to ask this: at the end, the shear and TUTT in some way are helping 92L to flare up again? I'm not saying helping to develop... just to keep producing convection.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My Forcast is for it to become a depression soon. 12-24 Hours, IF it can hold the convection.

Shear is lifting out rather quickl. As the storm moves, it may encounter lighter shear than erlier expected. ATemps will rise over 90 degrees in the water.

[RL3AO]

Allow me to ask this: at the end, the shear and TUTT in some way are helping 92L to flare up again? I'm not saying helping to develop... just to keep producing convection.

Upper level troughs support convection, after all, they are the main ingredients in severe thunderstorms, but they won't allow that convection to become a tropical cyclone in any way.

[RL3AO]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My Forcast is for it to become a depression soon. 12-24 Hours, IF it can hold the convection.

Shear is lifting out rather quickl. As the storm moves, it may encounter lighter shear than erlier expected. ATemps will rise over 90 degrees in the water.

I'm not an expert, but I know this isn't a condusive environment for tropical cyclones.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[cycloneye]

The first outer band from 92L is approaching the cam spot.