ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[ronjon]

92L up against some mightly shear. I wouldn't expect anything happening over the next 2-3 days. Boy, look how active the ITCZ is across the entire Atlantic.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/satellite/ETropical4kmIR.html

[cycloneye]

Cold cloud tops of -80C represented by those yellows.

[Gustywind]

For those who want to see the radar of Guadeloupe, and have the weather prediction for the next 3 hours in Guadeloupe, here is a link
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Maybe a tad slower.

AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Whole data from the start.

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010061218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010061118, , BEST, 0, 60N, 275W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061200, , BEST, 0, 61N, 284W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061206, , BEST, 0, 61N, 293W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061212, , BEST, 0, 62N, 301W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 321W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061306, , BEST, 0, 67N, 335W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 71N, 349W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061318, , BEST, 0, 77N, 363W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061400, , BEST, 0, 84N, 376W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061406, , BEST, 0, 90N, 388W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061412, , BEST, 0, 97N, 399W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061418, , BEST, 0, 105N, 410W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061500, , BEST, 0, 113N, 421W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061506, , BEST, 0, 122N, 432W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061512, , BEST, 0, 130N, 444W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061606, , BEST, 0, 142N, 490W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 144N, 508W, 30, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 583W, 25, 1012, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV,

[Weatherfreak000]

92L is in that wedged middle portion of the two huge shear zones to the left and right. It appears to me we are definitely seeing shear induced convection, but the worst days of 92L's life are most certainly ahead of it. I am having a difficult time believing a path over the islands is reasonable to the storm's survival and whatever becomes of this thing going into either the florida straits or the Yucatan area is got to be primed towards rapid development in an area that can easily support a major hurricane.

[Gustywind]

00 UTC Best Track

Maybe a tad slower.

AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Whole data from the start.

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010061218, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922010
AL, 92, 2010061118, , BEST, 0, 60N, 275W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061200, , BEST, 0, 61N, 284W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061206, , BEST, 0, 61N, 293W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061212, , BEST, 0, 62N, 301W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 310W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 321W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061306, , BEST, 0, 67N, 335W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061312, , BEST, 0, 71N, 349W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061318, , BEST, 0, 77N, 363W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061400, , BEST, 0, 84N, 376W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061406, , BEST, 0, 90N, 388W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061412, , BEST, 0, 97N, 399W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061418, , BEST, 0, 105N, 410W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061500, , BEST, 0, 113N, 421W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 92, 2010061506, , BEST, 0, 122N, 432W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061512, , BEST, 0, 130N, 444W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 136N, 457W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061606, , BEST, 0, 142N, 490W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 144N, 508W, 30, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061618, , BEST, 0, 148N, 521W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061700, , BEST, 0, 151N, 537W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061706, , BEST, 0, 155N, 554W, 25, 1013, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061712, , BEST, 0, 158N, 572W, 25, 1013, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 92, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 583W, 25, 1012, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 161N, 593W, 25, 1011, WV,

Pressure down to 1011 ...

[Ivanhater]

[OURAGAN]

It will cross my island of Guadeloupe.

[Cdeck81]

Wow! I can't believe this storm is making a come back. It's definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Gustywind]

It will cross my island of Guadeloupe.

What's the weather like in your area Ouragan?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 22N57W TO 13N59W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N. SEVERAL
DAYS AGO THIS SYSTEM HAD A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THERE IS
CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 50W-62W SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 56W-59W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 53W-56W. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
WWD...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

[OURAGAN]

The weather is calm at Baie-Mahault for the moment, but tomorrow we will get very strong showers and thunderstorms.

[Ivanhater]

Regardless if this get upgraded or not will not matter much for the Islands, the effects will be the same...nasty

[Gustywind]

The weather is calm at Baie-Mahault for the moment, but tomorrow we will get very strong showers and thunderstorms.

ok thanks OURAGAN same analysis for me... but let's wait and see. Very wet weather conditions are expected tommorow

[OURAGAN]

The cloud mass is just in front of Guadeloupe

[Gustywind]

Regardless if this get upgraded or not will not matter much for the Islands, the effects will be the same...nasty

yeah unhopefully and i don't know how the rivers the soils etc will react after the severe drought of the last 10 days, and that's why a simple active Twave could be very nasty in terms of surprise Ivanhater! Wait and see tommorow...we appreciate as usual your pics and your posts

[cycloneye]

For those members in the Caribbean that may post observations as 92L moves thru the islands,you can post them at the Caribbean thread at U.S. & Caribbean forum to not congest this 92L thread like a traffic jam.

Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

[Gustywind]

For those members in the Caribbean that may post observations as 92L moves thru the islands,you can post them at the Caribbean thread at U.S. & Caribbean forum to not congest this 92L thread like a traffic jam.

Caribbean - Central America Weather Thread

lol that's well said

[wxman57]

Martinique radar here:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html