ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Annie Oakley]

92L is one raggety boy with a mind of his own lol. Gusty-your pics are beautiful!

[clfenwi]

will nhc make this invest again tonight or wait untill friday afternoon?

While there was a period where they weren't running models etc. because there wasn't an analyzed low to track, they never formally deactivated the invest. It's a "live" invest right now.

[Ivanhater]

Beautiful outflow right now, noted by the feathery clouds at the end of the loop.

[RL3AO]

Looks good, but you can really see the shear in that loop.

[Gustywind]

92L is one raggety boy with a mind of his own lol. Gusty-your pics are beautiful!

Oh thanks my friend , i appreciate sincerely... and at the end someone to say that . Convection does not want to give up, continues to propagate consolidates intensifies, Let's see for tommorow . As long as there's not a name, I'm happy. Time to go to bed i hope the very best for my carib friends from the Windwards and Northern Leewards! Stay safe and dry.
Gustywind

[SunnyThoughts]

WOW, last time I checked in and looked at this invest...it was dying, or so everyone thought. What a change a day makes. Thanks for all the great pics and insights. Hopefully the shear will take care of it before it becomes any stronger.

[Ivanhater]

Looks good, but you can really see the shear in that loop.

Yes you can, and in the middle of the loop when the shear was pushing the convection off to the NE you see the convection push SW and expand. No doubt the shear is there, but this system is fighting it.

[Gustywind]

IvanHater and the others if you can keep us informed before tommorow 5am we appreciate... as we will take the relay.
Good night all

[Gustywind]

Beautiful outflow right now, noted by the feathery clouds at the end of the loop.

Vigorous popping convection on the last frames!!!

[Gustywind]

I have see too much for tonight...

[Ivanhater]

Watch out for the heavy rains Gusty tonight and tomorrow

[Gustywind]

Watch out for the heavy rains Gusty tonight and tomorrow

Yeah thanks but what a situation in already June! We saw that type of waves usually in July!

[Gustywind]

Is that a nasty soccer world cup ball? getting bigger and bigger by the hour. I go to bed, i will need some energy for sure...

[Rainband]

Watch out for the heavy rains Gusty tonight and tomorrow

Damn bro you've come a long way

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest shear charts out of CIMSS its seeing about 40K of shear and is heading into 50K of shear tomorrow. There is just about no chance it can develop when there is that kind of shear pounding it. The convection tonight is definitely being enhanced by interaction of the wave with the TUTT. I expect some outflow boundaries to burst out then wouldn't be surprised to see decreasing convection tomorrow after the outflow boundaries cause some stabilization. It's a vigorous wave no doubt and it is behaving exactly like one. Nothing organized from what I can see.

[cycloneye]

Below is the latest discussion by the NWS in San Juan:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1113 PM AST THU JUN 17 2010

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO
AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND DID NOT
SEND A ZFP UPDATE. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF
SEMANTIC ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE
SYNOPSIS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS THURSDAY EVENING...
WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
WEATHER LINGERING INTO OR THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -83C. SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RELAX DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BUT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED...THE LIKELIHOOD IS
FOR A CONTINUATION OF DEEP CONVECTION TO SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND THE DEEPEST SURGE OF MOISTURE
EXPECTED ONCE THE SURFACE LOW/WAVE AXIS GET CLOSE TO/PASS BY THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SIX
MORE HOURS AND ALLOW MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE...AS NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND MOST LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH BRIEF
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER TNCM
AND TKPK AND SPREADING ACROSS TIST...TISJ AND TISX...AND
EVENTUALLY AFFECTING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO BY ABOUT 18/10Z.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like 25kts to me

[gatorcane]

To see the shear, check these links (note tendency also)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I will say though if that shear were not there, we could certainly be talking about quite a system, not only with the intensity, but with the track given strong ridging across the Western Atlantic across FL and GOM, not budging for the forseeable future.

[jaxfladude]

50+ pages for an Invest!
This place rules!

I am thankful for the shear and other contributing factors that are keeping this system as an invest for the time being. If this were later on into the season, .
"I have a bad feeling about this"(season).

Stay safe y'all.

[Ivanhater]

New image, STILL expanding westward and pushing against the shear. Hot towers remain...