ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Brent]

I definitely would not be surprised to see this at orange at 2am, especially considering that conditions appear to become more favorable about 24 hours out.

Agree. If it's not orange at 2am it will be at 8am assuming this continues.

[Ivanhater]

[Brent]

NHC is still meh.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Annie Oakley]

Holy Cow!

[ROCK]

I am impressed as I wrote 92 off after it was stripped of convection yesterday. Pesky guy thats for sure. Island peeps going to be squally when that passes over....

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

Ivan...I am amazed that its building right now....yesterday it was but dead....GFS pushes it into NGOM at 180hr...not good news if verifies...

[Ivanhater]

I agree Rock, did not think it would look like this tonight.

[ROCK]

the GOM is not exactly cool either....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

the whole basin could support a major...ewww...

[Cyclenall]

Ouch....

I really like the colour scale used for that composite. I had some of Hurricane Katrina but since that time I haven't found the source of the image until now. I'm bewildered that is for tracking volcanic ash .

The islands are definitely about to get blasted early this morning as Invest 92L rushes towards them. Very impressive convection and symmetry. Happy to see the NHC finally caved in and started to increase the chances of TC formation from 0% to 20% in 6 hours. I didn't think they would increase it in the 2 am TWO but maybe 8 am has something.

[Ivanhater]

Somehow still expanding expanding westward..and certainly has lost some latitude today

[Fego]

Look like that the convection is splitting. Take a look at this image (2:15 am Caribbean time).



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Fego]

According to this, there is a 1011mb at 17N 60W.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES
NORTH OF 13N. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS CONCENTRATED NEAR
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N60W. SEVERAL DAYS AGO THIS SYSTEM HAD A
HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DUE TO
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW
CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-61W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPANDING NORTH TO 22N
BETWEEN 52W-61W. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTH OF 13N...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

[Fego]

I'm done.. here a new image half hour later 2:45 am.



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[Brent]

NHC put the floater back FINALLY

[KWT]

Still looking very sheared but the jet streak and shear is somewhat supporting development of strong convection still.

Either way the islands are going to get som big convection today thats for sure.

[Gustywind]

Has never give up... Just out of the bed, wind is blowing in gust, with light rains since 30 minutes in my area in Guadeloupe.

[HUC]

Light rain and thunder;gusty wind.Barometer normal at 1015mb steady.
Good morning to every one.

[HUC]

OOps...Correction for the barometer : that's 1012,5mb ( and not 1015 ) steady.i just awake!!!
i SHUT DOWN MY COMPUTER BECAUSE OF THUNDER

[KWT]

Hmmm the presentation of the convection looks a little worse compared to a few hours ago, convection looking ragged on the outer part of the convection, esp on the north side.

Looks to me that the unsupportive shear is just to the north of this system at the moment.