EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

The EPAC has been active from almost the start with Agatha in late May, TD 2-E, Blas and now this new system.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006181800
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010061818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942010
EP, 94, 2010061718, , BEST, 0, 128N, 939W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061800, , BEST, 0, 128N, 943W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061806, , BEST, 0, 129N, 947W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061812, , BEST, 0, 130N, 951W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2010061818, , BEST, 0, 131N, 955W, 25, 1009, DB

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[clfenwi]

GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all suggest that in 4-5 days this will become the strongest storm of the season, so far.

[clfenwi]

SHIPS is bullish as well.

Code: Select all

323
WHXX01 KMIA 181819
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942010) 20100618 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100618  1800   100619  0600   100619  1800   100620  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.1N  95.5W   13.5N  97.2W   13.9N  99.0W   14.1N 100.7W
BAMD    13.1N  95.5W   13.0N  97.0W   12.9N  98.5W   12.9N  99.9W
BAMM    13.1N  95.5W   13.2N  97.0W   13.3N  98.5W   13.4N 100.1W
LBAR    13.1N  95.5W   13.3N  97.0W   13.9N  99.0W   14.4N 101.3W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          46KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          46KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100620  1800   100621  1800   100622  1800   100623  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N 102.7W   14.3N 106.4W   14.1N 110.5W   13.3N 115.1W
BAMD    13.2N 101.4W   14.5N 104.8W   16.4N 109.7W   18.5N 114.9W
BAMM    13.5N 101.8W   13.7N 105.5W   14.0N 110.2W   14.0N 115.4W
LBAR    14.7N 103.5W   15.6N 107.6W   17.0N 111.9W   18.5N 115.5W
SHIP        57KTS          70KTS          80KTS          79KTS
DSHP        57KTS          70KTS          80KTS          79KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.1N LONCUR =  95.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  94.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  93.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  130NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




[cycloneye]

Yes.this was what ECMWF has been showing as a hurricane in the past runs. By the way,the name will be Celia.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

ABPZ20 KNHC 181850
TWOEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS A
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[clfenwi]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the vigor of the circulation, I'm going to guess that they go "Code Red" - 60% on the next TWO. I'll further speculate that this will become TD 4 by 8 AM PDT tomorrow. The latter, of course will depend on the extent of convection firing overnight.

[I-wall]

Looks like a depression to me. But then again, I also thought 92L was a depression.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[clfenwi]

best track and 00Z models

EP, 94, 2010061900, , BEST, 0, 135N, 960W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Code: Select all

312
WHXX01 KMIA 190047
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942010) 20100619 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100619  0000   100619  1200   100620  0000   100620  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  96.0W   13.9N  97.7W   14.2N  99.6W   14.3N 101.6W
BAMD    13.5N  96.0W   13.5N  97.5W   13.8N  98.9W   14.2N 100.5W
BAMM    13.5N  96.0W   13.8N  97.5W   14.1N  99.1W   14.4N 100.9W
LBAR    13.5N  96.0W   13.8N  97.7W   14.6N  99.9W   15.2N 102.2W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          37KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100621  0000   100622  0000   100623  0000   100624  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.5N 103.5W   14.2N 107.3W   13.8N 111.7W   12.1N 115.7W
BAMD    14.8N 102.1W   16.7N 105.7W   19.0N 109.8W   21.0N 113.2W
BAMM    14.8N 102.6W   15.6N 106.7W   16.9N 111.3W   17.8N 115.9W
LBAR    15.8N 104.6W   17.1N 109.3W   19.0N 113.7W   20.7N 117.9W
SHIP        55KTS          69KTS          68KTS          58KTS
DSHP        55KTS          69KTS          68KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  96.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  13.1N LONM12 =  95.0W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  12.8N LONM24 =  93.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



18Z GFDL and HWRF are slightly more modest than SHIPS in the peak intensity by 5-10 knots, but concur in bringing the system to TS strength within 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PHNC 182330 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 95.2W TO 13.8N 99.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 180421Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 95.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
95.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 96.0W, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF
SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS LACKING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 181903Z 37
GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MARGINAL RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BASED ON A 181541Z
ASCAT PASS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192330Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WMO HEADER.//
NNNN

[bob rulz]

It looks like it's built up a nice ball of convection over the center in the last couple of hours. Obviously we have to wait for visibles but I wouldn't be surprised if this is already a tropical depression.

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST AND THEREFORE NO
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[P.K.]

This is now Tropical Depression Four. Not sure why they issued a special advisory though when there are no warnings in effect.

WTPZ24 KNHC 191213
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
1230 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.0W AT 19/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 97.0W AT 19/1230Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 96.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.6N 97.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 12.5N 99.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.5N 100.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 12.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 13.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 97.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Forecast to become the first hurricane of this season in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 191240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
530 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED
IN A 19/0805Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE ONLY T1.0/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN THE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE MOVES THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...OUT OF RESPECT FOR
THE MORE LOWER LATITUDE AND SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST TRACK. AS A
RESULT OF THE WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...COASTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

THE RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE
LOW-LEVELS WITH A NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE
89-GHZ CHANNEL. BASED ON THIS IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE...AT
LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND
GFDL...WHICH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE
SHIPS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL TRACK
WHICH BRINGS THIS CYCLONE OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK INDICATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1230Z 12.8N 97.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 12.6N 97.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 12.5N 100.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 12.5N 106.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 108.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[clfenwi]

A Special TWO for it yesterday and a Special advisory package for it this morning. So, so, special.

[Macrocane]

This one has been really interesting so far and it seems that it will continue to be interesting to watch. By the way, when was the last time that the EPAC had a hurricane before the WPAC had a typhoon?

[clfenwi]

In 2001 the first eastern Pacific hurricane formed on May 27 while the first typhoon formed on June 22.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_pacific/2001/

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... index.html