ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N61W ACROSS SAINT KITTS TO 14N63W
MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOTED FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 55W-64W
AND CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AT 18/1036 UTC...AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED RETRIEVALS
EXHIBITING CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 56W-64W.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the focus point of this system is in that area of rain to the south of ST Maarten and SE of ST Croix.

[Weatherfreak000]

This was obviously going to happen here, everyone. You could tell 92L made it into a gap of some sorts that allowed it to intensify and that middle of opportunity was going to close.

However shear is on the decrease in that area it will travel towards tonight, perhaps down 10 kts which may land it in a favorable enough position to allow it to fire up again. The safe zone, (as is always the case for June) is gonna be around the Yucatan Peninsula where 92L has it's only real chance to fire up seeing as how it's definitely now Caribbean bound


Edit: I can see now I was a tad overzealous last night because of that CDO feature...probably should have waited another day seeing as how this system is constantly re-firing and fizzling out. Even so you have to admit it has been steady going through a rather harsh environment for a long time now.

[vbhoutex]

This was obviously going to happen here, everyone. You could tell 92L made it into a gap of some sorts that allowed it to intensify and that middle of opportunity was going to close.

However shear is on the decrease in that area it will travel towards tonight, perhaps down 10 kts which may land it in a favorable enough position to allow it to fire up again. The safe zone, (as is always the case for June) is gonna be around the Yucatan Peninsula where 92L has it's only real chance to fire up seeing as how it's definitely now Caribbean bound


Edit: I can see now I was a tad overzealous last night because of that CDO feature...probably should have waited another day seeing as how this system is constantly re-firing and fizzling out. Even so you have to admit it has been steady going through a rather harsh environment for a long time now.

That is what is of concern to me re: the GOM. Even though it has a long way to go to get to the "safe zone" as you call it, this invest has had and still probably has a lot of energy associated with it. If the right conditions and the right trigger are there we could have a whole new ball game in a week, something no one wants.

[Frank2]

If per the model computes the wave tracks WNW then really not much should remain once it crosses into the Gulf (not much is there as it is), so we'll see what happens before getting worried about any of the model scenarios of a strengtening low pressure system, since they are perhaps basing things on climatology more than anything else...

Ugh - going to be one of those seasons - the oil is the big factor in all of this, since that would incredibly complicate things to the point of being more unmanageable than they already are...

Frank

[jasons2k]

Edit: I can see now I was a tad overzealous last night because of that CDO feature...

Just to be a stickler....invests don't have a CDO. Systems must attain cyclone status to structurally attain a CDO.

[Blown Away]

IMO, the only chance 92L has is if that little vorticity just SE of PR starts building convection. Currently building some convection! We shall see!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[cycloneye]

This just came out,the updated Flash Flood Watch for all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This will be the real threat in Puerto Rico as flooding occurs many times.Also mudslides are a threat in the mountains of the center of Puerto Rico. I will report at the thread at USA & Caribbean forum any observation or event that this rainfall event may cause.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 PM AST FRI JUN 18 2010

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-190900-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-100620T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
459 PM AST FRI JUN 18 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* ALL OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...AND ALL OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THESE
ISLANDS EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

* TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS...VISITORS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE
URGED TO REMAIN ALERT TO DEVELOPING WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR
YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Martinique base reflectivity radar. Go to this site for still & animation loop:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[Sanibel]

Maybe the energy pulse will survive into more favorable June climatology areas. My guess is no, but I've been wrong before and it looks like it is attempting a re-fire. If it develops it will tell us a lot about the season.

[wxman57]

I don't expect much change for at least another 72 hours. It should pass the shear area by Tuesday. At that time, it may be near western Cuba. Depending upon what's left of the wave, it could regenerate in the south-central Gulf next Tue-Wed. I'm estimating perhaps a 20% chance of development then. Nothing to do but just sit back and wait for 72 hours. Convection will come and go during that time. Doesn't mean anything.

[I-wall]

Anyone have the latest shear maps? What is forecast ahead of 92L?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Anyone have the latest shear maps? What is forecast ahead of 92L?

Of course currently westerly shear is way to high over the system for it to develop further. It usually needs to be around 12-10 ms, and preferably less than 8 ms during the formative stage and out of a direction other than the west.

Detailed shear 48 hr forcast maps can be found here:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html

[TexasF6]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LATE AFTEROON CONVECTION IS JUST EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES
FOR NOW...BUT CUMULUS PATTERNS AND HIGH DEW POINTS SUGGEST BRIEF
ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE WEST TO NEAR I-35 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
INCREASING STABILITY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER EAST TX WILL
KEEP WEEKEND RAIN CHANCES NIL. HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES OVER THE
CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO HELP RELAX WINDS OVER TX...RESULTING
AND WARMER AND DRIER AFTERNOONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MIN TEMPS FROM
EARLIER THIS WEEK. STILL THE MOISTURE IN THE GROUND AND VEGETATION
WILL KEEP MOST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS COULD POTENTIALLY GO UP TOWARD TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A POSSIBLE
TUTT LOW SUGGESTS THE DAYTIME WARMING TREND WILL BE MORE SUBTLE.
THE LATE PERIOD PATTERN IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL WAVES AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SOME HINTS AT TROPICAL WAVE ACTIVITY HEADING
TOWARD TX LATE NEXT WEEK.

Its waaay to early to call 92L for Texas? But hey, in light of the GOM situation--I'd take it!

[rockyman]

There does appear to be a pretty defined wave axis SE of Puerto Rico, that doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. I'll definitely be watching this system as it approaches the climatologically-favored western Caribbean at the first of the week. I think we've all learned that tropical storms don't have "memory"...they simply respond to the current conditions...neither the reincarnated Andrew nor the reconstituted Katrina remembered their past failures.

[I-wall]

Anyone have the latest shear maps? What is forecast ahead of 92L?

Of course currently westerly shear is way to high over the system for it to develop further. It usually needs to be around 12-10 ms, and preferably less than 8 ms during the formative stage and out of a direction other than the west.

Detailed shear 48 hr forcast maps can be found here:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html

Thanks for that. So, 92L has to make it northwest of Haiti before the shear relaxes enough for development? I wouldnt think there would be anything left at that point.

[wxman57]

That shear zone isn't stationary, it's forecast to gradually shift northward and weaken with time. It'll be gone in another 7-10 days, at least if the GFS is correct.

[lonelymike]

Which NWS office in Texas did Dr. Steve Lyons take over?

[hurricaneCW]

That shear zone isn't stationary, it's forecast to gradually shift northward and weaken with time. It'll be gone in another 7-10 days, at least if the GFS is correct.

Does that mean in 7-10 days we should see some more tropical activity? I heard the MJO will also come into play by then, correct?