Severe weather - Northern Plains/Great Lakes - June 17-19

[CrazyC83]

Probs are 90/60 for wind - almost warranting PDS.

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN INDIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 430 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MOUNT CLEMENS
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...

DISCUSSION...WELL DEVELOPED FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS TRACKING EWD
ACROSS NRN IL/SRN WI. WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Look out Chicagoland!

WUUS53 KLOT 182018
SVRLOT
ILC031-043-063-089-093-097-099-111-197-182130-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0044.100618T2018Z-100618T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
318 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VERY DANGEROUS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLINTON TO
HINCKLEY TO OGLESBY...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NORTH AURORA AND NEWARK AROUND 325 PM CDT.
YORKVILLE...WOODSTOCK...ST. CHARLES AND SLEEPY HOLLOW AROUND 330 PM
CDT.
DUPAGE AIRPORT...WONDER LAKE...WINFIELD AND WEST DUNDEE AROUND 335
PM CDT.
WHEATON...SUNNYSIDE...STREAMWOOD AND ROSELLE AROUND 340 PM CDT.
YORK CENTER AROUND 345 PM CDT.
DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AROUND 400 PM CDT.


OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
PINGREE GROVE...SOUTH ELGIN...BOULDER HILL...LISBON...CRYSTAL LAKE...
SOUTH BARRINGTON...LAKE BARRINGTON...GLENDALE HEIGHTS...GLENBARD
SOUTH AND FOX RIVER VALLEY GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 8779 4240 8780 4232 8783 4224 8781
4211 8773 4206 8766 4184 8760 4174 8752
4166 8753 4130 8783 4126 8877 4181 8840
4249 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 264DEG 50KT 4253 8880 4180 8854
4127 8897
WIND...HAIL 80MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI

[CrazyC83]

Reports of winds over 90 mph in Michigan and over 300,000 without power in Illinois.

[Nate-Gillson]

Man that derecho doesn't want to die! Got hit by the same line of storms earlier today while I was at work. It was really nasty, I would guess the winds were 65-70 mph judging on how fast the rain was going sideways. The storm hit at 12:15 PM CDT>

[CrazyC83]

It is going on for a while...how much longer can it last? Conditions supposedly stabilize rapidly once past I-75. But a second one might be forming...

[CrazyC83]

Could be a PDS watch?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA TO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 190038Z - 190215Z

TORNADO WATCH 343 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z...AND LOCALLY EXTENDED SEVERE
TSTM WATCH 342 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
COORDINATED BETWEEN 0100-0130Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA/FAR
NORTHERN MO AND MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL. DAMAGING WINDS
/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/ AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS.

UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT IS DECIDEDLY UNDERWAY ACROSS
EASTERN IL/NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...WITH A 55 KT
GUST RECENTLY MEASURED /0020Z/ AT DAVENPORT IA. SOME TORNADO THREAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST IA MAINLY IN
THE SHORT TERM...BUT AN OVERALL CONGEALING TREND/FURTHER UPSCALE MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE DOMINANT SCENARIO THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
MCS-DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RECOVER ACROSS
NORTHERN IL IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER DERECHO. A STRONG RESERVOIR
OF INSTABILITY OTHERWISE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN
MO/CENTRAL IL...WITH THE 00Z LINCOLN OBSERVED RAOB INDICATIVE OF
4000+ J/KG MUCAPE VIA STEEP 7.6 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /15.9 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO/. AIDED BY A
MODESTLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET /35 KT/ ACROSS
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN IL THIS EVENING...LATEST THINKING IS A
CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM ALONG/NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
IA/NORTH-CENTRAL IL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NORTHWARD TO THE I-80/I-88
CORRIDORS OF FAR EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 06/19/2010


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41179409 41479294 41889112 42328998 42418908 42278805
41258786 40868839 39838938 39899164 40049359 40509437
41179409

[CrazyC83]

Down to slight risk (30 wind, not hatched) - don't agree with it, but they think the second line won't be as bad. Northern Michigan is a wildcard tonight.

SPC AC 190051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THRU THE GREAT LAKES...
THE STRONG/SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW RAPIDLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHWESTERN OHIO
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING STRONGER
MID/UPPER SUPPORT...AND ADVANCING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
SHEARED AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE GUST FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN OHIO AND THE
LAKE ERIE VICINITY...THROUGH 03-05Z.

MEANWHILE...FORCING IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...NOW MIGRATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF
ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EVOLVING ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
STORM CLUSTER. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW HAS
BEEN STABILIZED...UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ATOP THE STABLE
LAYER SHOULD ALLOW COLD OUTFLOW TO REACH THE SURFACE...WITH WESTERLY
MOMENTUM ON THE ORDER OF 30-40+ KTS. COUPLED WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM...A STRONG DYNAMICALLY FORCED NEAR SURFACE BUOYANCY
OSCILLATION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.

ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...A MOIST POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN IMPACTED BY CONVECTION. AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER
TONIGHT....AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
IF THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS.

...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS...FAVORABLE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT INCREASING
STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM THE LEE OF THE
FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 06/19/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0101Z (9:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST IOWA
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 805 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 343...WW 344...WW 345...

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER INTENSE QUASI-LINEAR MCS WILL SPREAD
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN IL AND SERN IA THIS EVENING. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
BOUNDARY FROM NRN MO INTO WRN/CNTRL IL. VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO FEED STORMS
WITHIN MODERATELY SHEARED DEEP-LAYER FLOW. EXPECT FLANKING LINE TO
CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ACROSS PARTS OF NERN MO AS NOCTURNAL LLJ
INTENSIFIES MODESTLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO HIGH
WINDS WITH FAST-MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...A FEW CELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...CARBIN

[OverlandHurricane]

Preliminary tornado tally from Thursday night is 36, although expect that number to go down as the tracks and reports are analyzed. Most were EF-0s and EF-1s.

The one that destroyed the Cenex station up in Red Lake County (Mentor) was an EF-3. The jury is still out on the other two monsters (the one that went down the main drag of Wadena and the one that went down I-90 west of Albert Lea).

[Stephanie]

The one in Wadena looks like at least an EF3. The pictures of some of those tornados were scary!

[CrazyC83]

The one in Wadena looks like at least an EF3. The pictures of some of those tornados were scary!

At least three tornadoes Thursday were EF4.

[OverlandHurricane]

Final tally was 17 tornadoes. Almora, Wadena, and Albert Lea tornadoes were all EF-4s. Those were the 16th, 17th, and 18th EF-4s in Minnesota since records have been kept. The one-day record for tornadoes is 27.

[Aquawind]

Three of the tornadoes were EF4s, making them the strongest the state has seen in 10 years.

By BILL McAULIFFE, Star Tribune
Last update: June 21, 2010 - 9:39 PM

It was horrendous, but not quite a record.

The 39 reported tornadoes that swept across Minnesota Thursday were more like 17. It's too soon to say for sure, but that's the latest count, according to a preliminary summary issued by the National Weather Service Monday.

"Sometimes we have multiple reports from people seeing the same tornado from different locations," said Todd Krause, warning coordination meteorologist for the Twin Cities office of the Weather Service. "That number almost certainly goes down."

At the same time, an EF3 tornado near Hollandale on Thursday had multiple funnels, which can make counting difficult, Krause said. The state one-day record apparently will remain at 27, from June 16, 1992.

Three of Thursday's tornadoes were rare EF4 tornadoes -- stronger than any seen in 10 years in Minnesota, according to the Weather Service.

Two were responsible for deaths in Almora, in north-central Minnesota, and near Albert Lea, in Freeborn County. A somewhat weaker EF3 tornado left a man dead in Mentor, in northwestern Minnesota.

A third EF4 tornado damaged or destroyed more than 200 buildings in Wadena, not far from Almora, and injured about 30 people.

Each of the EF4 tornadoes was more than a mile wide at its widest point. The Almora tornado scoured the ground for 36 miles. The Freeborn County tornado was 21 miles, and the Wadena tornado was 10 miles.

EF4 is the second-highest rating on the Enhanced Fujita scale of tornado damage, which runs from EF0 to EF5. An EF4 tornado packs three-second wind gusts estimated at between 166 miles per hour and 200 mph.

Before 2007, tornadoes were given F ratings; the destructiveness was similar to the current scale, though the estimated wind speeds were generally higher. The last F4 tornado to hit Minnesota was in Granite Falls on July 25, 2000. It killed one person and injured 15. Minnesota has seen only 19 tornadoes of similar magnitude since 1950, Weather Service meteorologist Matt Friedlein said.

The last F5 tornado in the state virtually leveled the city of Chandler, in southwestern Minnesota, on June 16, 1992, killing one person and injuring 35.

The Weather Service had 11 teams from offices serving Minnesota to research the damages from the air and on the ground from Friday through Sunday. Krause said it could be a month before it makes final assessments.

In the meantime, Krause urged people to send the agency whatever photographs or video they might have taken of tornadoes or damage. They can be sent electronically to w-mpx.webmaster@noaa.gov or by regular mail to the National Weather Service, 1733 Lake Drive W., Chanhassen, MN 55317.

The survey work and photos help researchers determine why some severe storm systems produce tornadoes and others don't, something that continues to baffle meteorologists.

"They help us understand what we're seeing on the radar. That's probably the most important thing," Krause said. "That will help us with the next event, which we hope won't be for a long while."

However, tornado warnings were issued late Monday afternoon for several counties in northeastern Minnesota.

On Thursday, 10 emergency warning sirens failed to sound in northwest Rochester before an EF1 tornado. Olmsted County Deputy Mike Bromberg said the problem is being blamed on a software glitch that told the sirens to cancel instead of sound. He said the problem was fixed the next morning. No one was injured in Rochester by the tornado.

At least four of Thursday's 17 tornadoes have been rated EF3. Besides the one in Mentor, the other three were in Freeborn and Steele counties in southern Minnesota.

In Wadena, a city of 3,900 people, some homes might not have power restored until later this week.

People willing to volunteer to help can call 1-800-543-7709, and donations can be made through Mid Central Federal Savings Bank at 218-631-1414.

The Associated Press contributed to this report. Bill McAuliffe • 612-673-7646

http://www.startribune.com/local/968202 ... page=2&c=y with video

[Nicko999]

I was in Chicago for the June 18th storm... Lots of trees down especially in downtown Chicago.

[Nicko999]

A weak tornado (F0) touched down on the island of Montreal.

We then had several funnel clouds with another storm in the evening.