EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[Macrocane]

In 2001 the first eastern Pacific hurricane formed on May 27 while the first typhoon formed on June 22.

Thanks for the answer. That's a difference of almost one month, if something similar happens this year we are going to see the first typhoon more or less on July 15.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Celia

That was a very quick upgrade.

WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP
WKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5
AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED
MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF
T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE
POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF
CELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS
MODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...
COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST
AFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN
5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...
LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 12.5N 97.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 12.4N 98.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 12.3N 99.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Impressive structure.

[somethingfunny]

Every six years I have to wonder why they have allowed the name Celia to be reused even in another basin.

[cycloneye]

Every six years I have to wonder why they have allowed the name Celia to be reused even in another basin.

That is a very interesting theme that for sure the stat gurus or historian gurus can come and sheed light about that.

[Macrocane]

Every six years I have to wonder why they have allowed the name Celia to be reused even in another basin.

That's a very good question, I think it should be retired from the EPAC list specially being the NHC the RSMC for the Atlantic too.

[cycloneye]

The SHIP intensity goes up to cat 2 status.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010) 20100619 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100619 1800 100620 0600 100620 1800 100621 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 97.6W 11.8N 99.1W 11.2N 100.6W 10.4N 101.8W
BAMD 12.4N 97.6W 12.3N 99.4W 12.4N 101.3W 12.7N 103.3W
BAMM 12.4N 97.6W 12.0N 99.1W 11.6N 100.5W 11.1N 102.0W
LBAR 12.4N 97.6W 12.3N 99.3W 12.5N 101.2W 13.0N 103.7W
SHIP 40KTS 46KTS 53KTS 60KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 53KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 1800 100623 1800 100624 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 103.0W 7.7N 105.4W 7.6N 107.9W 9.4N 110.7W
BAMD 13.0N 105.6W 13.7N 110.6W 14.5N 116.1W 15.1N 121.7W
BAMM 10.5N 103.9W 9.0N 108.1W 7.9N 112.6W 8.4N 116.5W
LBAR 13.2N 106.2W 13.5N 110.9W 14.2N 116.2W 13.6N 121.2W
SHIP 66KTS 80KTS 89KTS 87KTS
DSHP 66KTS 80KTS 89KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 97.6W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 96.6W DIRM12 = 236DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 95.5W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 40NM

$$

[KWT]

That is a quick upgrade it has to be said!

Still it does have a nice structure to it and is wrapping itself up very nicely right now, I'd guess something around 50kts right now, its a little weak in terms of deep convection on the eastern side. No reason why this won't reach hurricane strength.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 192035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

CELIA'S APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
TODAY AS SEVERAL CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FORMED AND WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS
ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...ADT ESTIMATES OF
T2.9/43 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM NHC. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A
LITTLE LOW GIVEN CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CELIA THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND
THEN ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AFTER THAT TIME AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELIA TO
GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS
MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE CELIA VERY WELL AT 12Z...AND AS A RESULT
MUCH LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THOSE MODELS WHICH TAKE A MUCH WEAKER
CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...CANADIAN...
GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.

CELIA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION BASED ON
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SMALL CDO FEATURE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHARPLY INCREASES THE
VERTICAL SHEAR TO 20-25 KT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO
BE DUE IN PART TO THE GFS MODEL'S POOR 12Z INITIALIZATION. THE
OTHER MODELS ONLY INDICATE 10-15 KT 200-MB WINDS ALONG CELIA'S
FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 5 KT OR
LESS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...COMPARED TO THE SHIPS-GFS ANALYSIS OF
10-15 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A
LEVELING OFF BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN...
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 12.4N 98.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 12.3N 99.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 12.2N 100.4W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 12.2N 101.7W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 12.2N 103.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 12.3N 105.3W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 13.0N 110.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[Gorky]

Probably won't be too long before another upgrade to Hurricane strength either....

[cycloneye]

Hmmm another Special Advisory?

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised. Impressive IR today...

[lester]

Probably won't be too long before another upgrade to Hurricane strength either....

"eye" see you!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Celia is strengthening rapidly. Over moderatly warm waters, and no shear, she is already developing an eye.

Forcast...

0 Hours-TS-45MPH
6 Hours-1-75MPH
12 Hours-1-80MPH
24 Hours-1-90MPH
48 Hours-2-100MPH
72 Hours-2-110MPH
96 Hours-3-115MPH
120 Hours-2-105MPH

MY forcast.

[bombarderoazul]

Impressive, Celia may not only become the first hurricane of the Epac season, but could potentially became the first major one as well.

[Macrocane]

The convection is not very strong but its structure is very impressive, as it has been said above, I wouldn't be surprised if another special advisory is issued.

[srainhoutx]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Look at that center!

[hurricaneCW]

Very impressive image and a rapidly developing system. I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a major in the next couple of days. Hopefully that transcends into the Atlantic in a couple of weeks or less. The Atlantic is just so warm and it has to cool off somehow.

[KWT]

Wow that is an impressive strengthening trend, this reminds me of Gustav when the NHC had it as a borderline TD/TS and it was already developing a weak eye.