Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1210 PM AST SAT JUN 19 2010

PRC009-015-025-029-031-035-037-041-043-053-057-063-069-077-085-087-
089-095-103-109-119-123-127-129-139-151-191815-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0205.000000T0000Z-100619T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-AIBONITO PR-JUNCOS PR-GURABO PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-ARROYO PR-LUQUILLO PR-
PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-CANOVANAS PR-GUAYAMA PR-
FAJARDO PR-CAROLINA PR-HUMACAO PR-SAN JUAN PR-SALINAS PR-LOIZA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-YABUCOA PR-
1210 PM AST SAT JUN 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...AIBONITO...JUNCOS...GURABO...
SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...
PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...
FAJARDO...CAROLINA...HUMACAO...SAN JUAN...SALINAS...LOIZA...RIO
GRANDE AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 1201 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING ACROSS OR APPROACHING THE ADVISED AREA. IN ADDITION RIVERS
AND STREAMS REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS ACROSS THE AREAS...AND EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING DUE TO RUNOFF.
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

Here is the precipitation so far in inches.As you can see by those yellows and reds,over between 3-6 inches have fallen so far mainly in Eastern Puerto Rico.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/precip.p ... 8,2,9,15,6

Click the bar to the left to then get a closeup view.

[cycloneye]

Maybe is a temporary thing but there has been a pause of the rains over most of Puerto Rico for the past 2 hours.Lets see what happens during the rest of this afternoon and tonight.

[Gustywind]

Let's continue to be prudent and vigilant as usual even if we're only experiencing the first pretty active TWAVE in our area. Saty safe and dry all my carib friends
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N64W ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO TO
14N67W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. LARGELY A NORTHWESTERN EXTENSION
OF THE AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC AND LESSER ANTILLES...THIS WAVE CONTINUES
TO EXHIBIT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED TO THE NW
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS PRIMARILY KEEPING CONVECTION FROM
ORGANIZING FURTHER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 60W-68W...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 56W-69W.

[Gustywind]

[Steagle]

...Here in the eastern D.R , first squalls came thru about 1 pm.
Torrential rain for 20 mins..now back to bright sunshine.

[Hugo1989]

Saludos:

Hasta cuando estaran los vientos cortantes fuertes los mismos que imposibilitaron el desarrollo de la baja presion 92L?? hay pendiente alguna otra onda saliendo del africa con algun potencial o simplemente el area no esta buena para desarrollo prontamente?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST SAT JUN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. A SLOW
DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO HAS
BEGUN TO DIMINISH THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE AXIS OF THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW BEGINNING TO EXIT WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE BEHIND THIS WAVE...AND SEVERAL VORTICIES IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ONE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SAINT KITTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT LOW LEVEL VORT...COULD SEE
ANOTHER FLARE UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE USVI AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED
OVERNIGHT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL.

LATEST NAM AND GFS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS EXITING WAVE...BUT EITHER WAY...EXPECT A SLOW
DRYING TREND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BRINGS A DEEP SURGE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR CONDS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST
NORTHEASTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Saludos:

Hasta cuando estaran los vientos cortantes fuertes los mismos que imposibilitaron el desarrollo de la baja presion 92L?? hay pendiente alguna otra onda saliendo del africa con algun potencial o simplemente el area no esta buena para desarrollo prontamente?

Saludos:

Esos vientos cortantes poco a poco se estan debilitando pero todavia estan lo sufficientemente altos como para no dejar que se desarrolle por ahora.Por ahora no hay nunguna onda saliendo de Africa que tenga organizacion.

Those upper winds have been weakening slowly,but not sufficient to allow development of this wave at this time.As for Africa,right now there are any organized waves emerging that continent.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

There's some lightnings right now and the thunder is rumbling nicely...

[Gustywind]

Rain rain rain now with isolated lightnings!!!

[Gustywind]

More lightnings in my area !!! If this continues to amplify i must have to shut down my computer! Thunder is rumbling pretty frequently and nicely. A cluster seems to rebuilding just over Guadeloupe, and convection repopping everywhere... so more wet weather conditions today before an improvement expected tommorow afternoon!

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

Gusty
be careful
I have had more than my share of damaged electronics from lightning
Here in SXM skies are cloudy but we have not had much rain since this morning.
But we did have 3 inches then according to my back yard gauge.
Winds are from the E at 14 MPH
Even with a rainy morning, we were able to pull off our ZOO clean up.
It was amazing how many volunteers came out in the rain!

Here's a few of them!

[Gustywind]

Thanks Msbee i appreciate. I must have to be prudent as i'm leaving right now outside doing some shopping . Nice pic you're so kind Barbara These childrens are wonderfull!! Hey be aware as usual 92L is so tenacious, we have the rain and a serious rain event if this continue tonight!
Be safe and dry!
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

Very good Barbara that the cleanup went foward Gusty,be careful there.

[Gustywind]

Very good Barbara that the cleanup went foward Gusty,be careful there.

Oh boy my friends! Numerous floodings in vicinity of my locality! Not majors floods but localized! Strong rain rain and lightnings during the last hour!! Hopefully things calm down a bit. It's raining on off right now, but seems that another round of showers is not so far

[srainhoutx]

My thoughts are with Haiti tonight. Stay safe neighbors.

[HUC]

Lot of rain here, near 100mm since 2pm...Rivers in spate;some thunder...Really a healty Wave,really