Global model runs discussion

[USTropics]

Perhaps what the ECMWF and CMC (and to an extent NOGAPS are picking up is the area of disturbed weather around 7 north, 35 west.

That area of deep layered moisture is part of the wave axis located along 10N 31W:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 8:05PM ET:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N31W TO 2N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT.

I did the distance conversion from the ECMWF model, and the distance from the wave's current location and where the ECMWF first initializes the low at 120 hours is 3,321 miles. Divide that by the number of hours and this wave axis would need to travel at 28 mph (24kt). This wave has been traveling at a general 15 kt the past 3 days. This is the wave the NOGAPS is showing weak development of, the CMC shows weak development of both waves, bringing the wave currently located at 11N 47W over portions of SA and the Caribbean (the ECMWF also appears to bring the wave at 11N 47W over portions SA before developing in the Caribbean).

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro still on it and stronger

[KWT]

Interesting 0z ECM thats for sure, its quite a realistic development for the time of yeah which means it needs to be watched...

[cycloneye]

Is like years ahead,but for the first time GFS shows a tropical storm in the MDR.Lets see if it continues to show this in the next runs and if other models join later.

[BigA]

Is like years ahead,but for the first time GFS shows a tropical storm in the MDR.Lets see if it continues to show this in the next runs and if other models join later

12z GFS concurs. It also continues to show a low (possibly 92L?) forming in the GOM around 100 hour time frame

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS/ECM both are trying to develop something in the next week or so, looks like we are going to have a few areas that will need watching out for.

Wil lbe interesting to see if the 12z ECM carries on with its solution.

[wxman22]

12z models still consistent on later next week development there just a little different on the timing of development.

Euro:



Canadian:


Nogaps:

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is very long range, but perhaps it might be a sign of things to come next month? It will definitely be interesting to see what the next few weeks hold in terms of tropical activity. With such an active season expected, July could certainly be much crazier than normal.

[KWT]

Looks like NOGAPS and ECM are both developing the same feature, hard to know about the CMC without looking further into the run.

[USTropics]

ECMWF still appears to be developing the wave axis along 11N 52W. The NOGAPS has 2 weak vortices in the Caribbean. The CMC brings the 11N 52W wave over SA, and develops the wave axis along 11N 35W and another area behind this wave.

[BigA]

00 ECMWF and CMC both show strong lows in the GOM in the 200-240 hour period.

[KWT]

Yeah the ECM is still developing a low coming off the Yucatan and taking it WNW. Still a very long way off yet though of course at 192-216hrs.

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic of the 00z ECMWF showing the strong system in the GOM in 240 hours.

[SETXWXLADY]

This is the second day both the EURO and CMC are showing something in the WGOM. GFS however has completely dropped any GOM development from their latest run. But the persistence of the other 2 have definitely got my attention.

[gatorcane]

CMC/GFS/NOGAPS are hinting at possibly another EPAC system forming around 5-7 days from now. It would develop somewhere in the area between 100W and 90W and 8N and 12N, just a few hundred miles south of extreme southeastern Mexico.

[BigA]

6z WRF also keen on some development in the Western Caribbean

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[ronjon]

Way out but GFS has been persistent the last several days with developing our first cape verde system in early July (around the 2nd).

[Macrocane]

This run of the CMC is very bullish with 2 hurricanes in the EPAC and 2 systems in the Atlantic, could this be another overreaction of the CMC? I do think so, unless other models show support especially with the Atlantic systems.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

[wxman22]

12z European model looks pretty nasty for the Texas coast...

[Ivanhater]

When you have the Euro being extremely consistent on strong development then you better pay attention. I think almost every models shows this as well. Euro has been coming north as well. Hook 'em horns! Whatcha thinking ROCK