EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[srainhoutx]

Impressive developing cyclone...d-max should be interesting...

[ROCK]

Looks good to me....nice CDO...banding...probably make cat 2 or 3....IMO....

[cycloneye]

SHIP'S intensity goes up to major cane.

WHXX01 KMIA 200053
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC SUN JUN 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010) 20100620 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100620 0000 100620 1200 100621 0000 100621 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 98.3W 11.8N 99.7W 11.4N 100.9W 10.8N 102.3W
BAMD 12.2N 98.3W 12.2N 100.2W 12.4N 102.0W 12.6N 104.1W
BAMM 12.2N 98.3W 11.9N 99.8W 11.7N 101.3W 11.4N 103.0W
LBAR 12.2N 98.3W 12.0N 100.1W 12.2N 102.2W 12.3N 104.5W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 71KTS 80KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 71KTS 80KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100622 0000 100623 0000 100624 0000 100625 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 103.7W 8.3N 106.7W 8.3N 109.1W 10.7N 111.9W
BAMD 12.8N 106.3W 13.6N 111.2W 14.4N 116.9W 14.8N 122.4W
BAMM 11.1N 105.0W 10.1N 109.7W 9.0N 114.5W 9.2N 117.8W
LBAR 12.7N 107.2W 12.9N 112.0W 12.8N 117.0W 9.4N 120.0W
SHIP 88KTS 99KTS 101KTS 95KTS
DSHP 88KTS 99KTS 101KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 98.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 97.0W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 96.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$

[cycloneye]

55 kts

WTPZ44 KNHC 200240
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010

CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL GLIMPSE OF AN EYE TRYING TO FORM INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-70 KT. THE
ATTEMPTS AT EYE FORMATION SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THESE ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT YET PERSISTENT ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY CALLING CELIA A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7. ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CELIA THROUGH 96 HR... AND THEN
SUBSEQUENTLY ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD FOR 72-96 HR...WITH A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO TAKE
CELIA TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT LIES NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER THAT TIME.

CELIA IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...
CIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING INTO THE CDO FROM THE EAST SUGGEST VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING...AND THAT MAKES IT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE. WHILE THE GFS MODEL STILL
FORECASTS CELIA TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR DURING THE 12-48 HR
PERIOD...IT IS FORECASTING LESS SHEAR THAN 6 HR AGO. THE SHIPS
MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING CELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 96 HR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN
KEEP CELIA A TROPICAL STORM FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH ONLY
THE GFDL FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HR. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT AT A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IF THE SHEAR TURNS OUT TO BE LESS
THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 12.1N 98.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 11.9N 99.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 11.8N 101.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 11.7N 102.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 11.7N 103.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 12.0N 105.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 12.5N 108.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[RL3AO]

I see someone forgot to tell the EPac its going to have a quiet year.

[MGC]

Lets hope EPAC keeps all the big ones this year. Celia does look to be intensifying at a good clip tonight. Should be a cane soon if not one already.....MGC

[Brent]

I see an eye.

[Cyclenall]

I see someone forgot to tell the EPac its going to have a quiet year.

My thinking this year has always been the Epac will have an average year and this talk about the Epac being quiet will fade soon. Every year the forecast is the same...the Epac will be below average because of the cycle. I even saw that for 2006 I think .

This sure popped up. This is what the models were showing from last week, a strong TC making major status possibly. I guessed the NHC was going to be calling for a CAT2 and mentioning the SHIPS output somewhere in the discussion and both verified.

[KWT]

I think we need to wait for the La Nina to really kick in to see the EPAC slow down, probably won't occur till August time...2006 was obviously El nino, the problem is the long range forecasters for whatever region badly under-estimated the strength and development of that feature. Still its a nice and quick start to the hurricane season out there in the EPAC.

However that being said the ECM did forecast lower pressure in the eastern part of the basin which maybe enough to suggest an average season is possible.

Anyway its a nice looking system and I'd think its probably a hurricane already, its got a very neat looking structure.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

CORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT TO 55 KT

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO
IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 55 KT.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER
CELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A
BIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED...
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO
PREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60
HOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL
FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
FASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.0N 99.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[KWT]

Very interesting discussion there, sounds like the shear is the big uncertainty with the forecast because of there are certainly differences within the models. Also the first time they are calling for this system to reach major hurricane strength which is inline with the SHIPs ideas.

[Chacor]

EP, 04, 2010062012, , BEST, 0, 119N, 997W, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 45, 45, 1012, 160, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CELIA, D,
EP, 04, 2010062012, , BEST, 0, 119N, 997W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 10, 1012, 160, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CELIA, D,

Held at 55 kt.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 201433
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CELIA DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AROUND 3.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A EYE
BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THE CDO...BUT BOTH THE SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS
ANALYZE ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE EAST OR
NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER CELIA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF NEAR 100 KT IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAY 5...AS CELIA WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE
GFDN SHOWS CELIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/07. CELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALONG 125W BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCLUDING
THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 11.9N 100.0W 55 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 11.7N 101.0W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 11.6N 102.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 11.7N 103.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 11.8N 104.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 12.3N 107.8W 95 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 13.5N 111.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[KWT]

Still having a little bit of trouble closing off that eastern eyewall, probably a result of the shear that is present with the system at the moment. Still should make it to hurricane status sooner rather then later.

Classic case where the Vis imagery makes it look perhaps a little bit more advanced then the microwave imagery would suggest.

[HURAKAN]

[Hurricane Andrew]

Eye iz watching you.

[HURAKAN]

Every six years I have to wonder why they have allowed the name Celia to be reused even in another basin.

That's a very good question, I think it should be retired from the EPAC list specially being the NHC the RSMC for the Atlantic too.

The EPAC and Atlantic are two separate basins and if one name is retired in one basin, it doesn't mean it can't be used in another.

[KWT]

Its getting there, probably will be upped to 60kts next advisory, a small chance they will even go the full distance and get upto 65kts, but we shall see!

[clfenwi]

18Z best track and models. Looks like TAFB gave it the coveted 4.0 Dvorak rating and NHC concurred.

EP, 04, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1000W, 65, 990, HU,

Code: Select all

109
WHXX01 KMIA 201827
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SUN JUN 20 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010) 20100620 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100620  1800   100621  0600   100621  1800   100622  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N 100.0W   11.1N 101.3W   10.6N 102.8W   10.0N 104.2W
BAMD    11.6N 100.0W   11.4N 102.1W   11.2N 104.4W   10.7N 106.9W
BAMM    11.6N 100.0W   11.2N 101.5W   10.9N 103.2W   10.6N 105.3W
LBAR    11.6N 100.0W   11.4N 101.6W   11.5N 103.7W   11.5N 106.0W
SHIP        65KTS          73KTS          83KTS          92KTS
DSHP        65KTS          73KTS          83KTS          92KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100622  1800   100623  1800   100624  1800   100625  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.2N 105.8W    8.9N 108.8W   11.2N 112.7W   14.6N 118.2W
BAMD     9.9N 109.5W    7.8N 114.2W    6.8N 118.0W    8.2N 121.1W
BAMM    10.1N 107.5W    9.4N 111.8W   10.5N 115.8W   13.0N 120.2W
LBAR    11.3N 108.6W   10.8N 114.0W   10.3N 119.4W   12.6N 122.5W
SHIP        99KTS         106KTS          99KTS          89KTS
DSHP        99KTS         106KTS          99KTS          89KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.6N LONCUR = 100.0W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  98.9W DIRM12 = 251DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  12.4N LONM24 =  97.6W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =   55KT
CENPRS =  990MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  220NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   50NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =   50NM RD34NW =  50NM
 
$$
NNNN