EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yep so they have gone right to Hurricane status.

The SHIPS have done a decent job as have the NHC so far with the strength so no reason to think it can't make it to major hurricane status given this.

First hurricane of the year in the EPAC!

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 65 knots

EP, 04, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1000W, 65, 990, HU,

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...CELIA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 100.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS INTENSIFIED. A SSMIS
PASS FROM 1450 UTC SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND
AN EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO...
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS
HAVE BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED SINCE THIS MORNING. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENT THAT HAS
BEEN AFFECTING CELIA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. A BROAD PEAK IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SOME
WEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
COOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25
KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ONLY A 2 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THAT PERIOD.

THE CENTER OF CELIA MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONG TERM INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 260/6. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CELIA WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT WAS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFS...WHICH AGAIN
APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE EXPANDED
BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1640 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 11.6N 100.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 11.4N 101.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 11.4N 102.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 103.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 11.6N 105.1W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 12.3N 108.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 13.5N 112.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 25/1800Z 15.0N 116.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

[KWT]

Certainly looks like a hurricane, that eye has been trying to pop out for a whilst now, as I said in the chat, reminds me of Gustav before its first landfall where the eye was popping out now and then right down in the mid TS range.

Should make it to major status unless the shear doesn't ease down quickly enough, but no doubting its a hurricane.

Quick EPAC start!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

The EPAC is just one named storm above average. Nothing to run for the hills!

[KWT]

Yeah, but still it is above average which in itself hasn't happened too much in the slower era of the EPAC. I'm pretty sure the meat of the hurricane season will reduce the wave supply going into the EPAC right now for a while.

[cycloneye]

Celia has turned into the first system to reach 65kts not only at the EPAC but in the whole Northern Hemisphere in 2010.

[HURAKAN]

Celia has turned into the first system to reach 65kts not only at the EPAC but in the whole Northern Hemisphere in 2010.

You forgot Phet. First hurricane and first major hurricane

[cycloneye]

Yep,forgot that one.

[Chacor]

Up to 70.

EP, 04, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1006W, 70, 986, HU

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow the EPAC is turning out to be quite active already. 2 storms and another invest.......Will the Atlantic follow?

Nice to have something to track in the EPAC.....

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity goes up to 110kts.

814
WHXX01 KMIA 210059
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0059 UTC MON JUN 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010) 20100621 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 0000 100621 1200 100622 0000 100622 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 100.6W 11.5N 101.9W 11.4N 103.4W 11.2N 105.1W
BAMD 11.6N 100.6W 11.7N 102.6W 12.0N 104.8W 12.3N 107.3W
BAMM 11.6N 100.6W 11.3N 102.3W 11.2N 104.1W 11.0N 106.2W
LBAR 11.6N 100.6W 11.5N 102.4W 11.7N 104.5W 11.8N 107.0W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 93KTS 102KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 93KTS 102KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 0000 100624 0000 100625 0000 100626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 107.1W 10.8N 111.2W 12.2N 115.1W 15.1N 119.9W
BAMD 12.5N 109.9W 12.5N 115.7W 11.9N 121.1W 11.4N 125.4W
BAMM 10.6N 108.4W 10.1N 112.9W 10.9N 116.7W 13.7N 120.2W
LBAR 11.9N 109.8W 11.2N 115.3W 10.5N 120.5W 10.9N 123.3W
SHIP 107KTS 110KTS 107KTS 93KTS
DSHP 107KTS 110KTS 107KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 100.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 99.5W DIRM12 = 250DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 98.3W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 986MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

995
WTPZ44 KNHC 210233
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
BASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS OF T4.5/77 KT USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN. A 21/0007Z SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A NEARLY CLOSED
EYEWALL IN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVELS...AND AN INTERMITTENT
CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONINGS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. CELIA IS BEING STEERED IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION BY AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.
THIS DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 96
HOURS...AFTER WHICH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW CELIA TO
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED DYNAMICAL MODELS...
EXCLUDING THE GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.

WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CIRRUS STREAMERS
FROM A LARGE DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED EAST OF CELIA
BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE HURRICANE OUTFLOW LAYER. AS A RESULT...
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE
HURRICANE SOON...POSSIBLY EVEN HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO RESUME.
THE WEAKENING TREND AT DAY 5 MAY BE PREMATURE IF CELIA DOES NOT
REACH COOLER WATER AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS
MARKEDLY HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 11.6N 100.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 11.5N 101.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 11.5N 103.1W 80 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 11.6N 104.5W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 12.6N 109.7W 105 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 15.5N 117.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 210832
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CELIA HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIAL EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 70 KT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES
IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CELIA AND INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW
OVER THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT ABOVE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG AT AN INCREASED
FORWARD SPEED. AFTER SOME SMOOTHING AND USING CONTINUITY FROM THE
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED VALUE...THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
275/8. A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION OF
CELIA FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE U.S. WEST COAST IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. THIS
WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...AND MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 72
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY REVISED INTIAL MOTION.
THIS IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT
EXCLUDES THE FORECAST FROM THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 11.8N 102.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 11.9N 103.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 12.0N 104.8W 80 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 12.1N 106.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 12.3N 108.0W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 13.0N 111.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 16.0N 119.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Presentation isn't improving at all right now, in fact if anything its got worse again over the past 4-6hrs. I'd imagine the shear has increased again as the system has more convection on the southern side of the system with the cloud expanding southwards quite quickly as well.

[HURAKAN]

Latest