ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

That EURO run was nasty...in more ways than one. But for sure the models are sniffing and if the EURO is seeing it then I tend to take notice. Although, I would rather watch the EURO when we have something other than an invest to track.....

[Dean4Storms]

Go away Euro solution, this would be a freaking nightmare. We here in the Panhandle can not imagine the scope of the disaster if this solution unfolds. Sea water storm surge would be bad enough, but add Oil and the environmental damage would be catastrophic and BP nor insurance companies would be able to withstand the claims, everything touched by storm surge would be uninhabitable for years!!!

[CourierPR]

AccuWeather mentions possible development of this system this morning along with possible trouble developing near the Bahamas later on in the period. See the article by Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, I guess we all knew that at some point in the season...we'd have to deal with one or more tropical systems in the gulf this year. As per the euro...it looks as though that might just happen earlier than we thought, or at least earlier than I thought. Just hope the strength of the system is minimal, as to not impact the ongoing efforts of the relief wells to stop the oil disaster. We'll see what all the models have forecast in the coming days, and take it from there...all we can do is be prepared ahead of time and roll with the punches, as we always do along the gulf coast.

[LSU2001]

IMHO,
Almost any tropical system entering the Gulf is bad news. Here along the La. coast a storm entering the gulf means higher than normal tides, higher than normal waves in the gulf and more stormy weather to contend with. This happens almost every time any storm enters the gulf even if the storm does not directly affect the La. coast. Once a TS enters the gulf the rigs begin evacuating and all work comes to a halt.
This would mean that any work on the oil spill would stop until the storm passes and then it would take days for the oil spill workers to get back to the site and start work again. It would definitely delay drilling the relief wells. I hope that this storm does not develop or enter the gulf at all but I may be hoping against hope. I do not want to see oil pushed into the marshes any further than it is already and i do not want to see flooding with an oil component.
Oh well guess i will monitor and pray.
Tim

[Dean4Storms]

Well, I guess we all knew that at some point in the season...we'd have to deal with one or more tropical systems in the gulf this year. As per the euro...it looks as though that might just happen earlier than we thought, or at least earlier than I thought. Just hope the strength of the system is minimal, as to not impact the ongoing efforts of the relief wells to stop the oil disaster. We'll see what all the models have forecast in the coming days, and take it from there...all we can do is be prepared ahead of time and roll with the punches, as we always do along the gulf coast.

I really do appreciate the SunnyThoughts! But rest assured that if we get a landfalling hurricane with the oil out there a good portion of the beaches and some ways inland is likely to be deemed uninhabitable by the EPA.

[Ivanhater]

Can't get much better conditions with this upper level ridge to develop

[srainhoutx]

[Ivanhater]

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z GFS shows mid-level ridging breaking down and retreating west in 72 hrs over the deep south.

[brunota2003]

With the ridge built up more toward the west, wouldn't that tend to push a system more to the north, toward the weakness over the east/central gulf?

[ronjon]

With the ridge built up more toward the west, wouldn't that tend to push a system more to the north, toward the weakness over the east/central gulf?

Yes, especially with a stronger storm. This is probably what the European model was picking up on this morning. We'll have to wait and watch the global models for their trends on this mid-level ridge over the next few days to see if troughing becomes more established over the east coast by this weekend.

[Wx_Warrior]

Nada on GFS 12z run.

[jasons2k]

Nothing yet from Wxman57 or Air Force Met...

That always makes me nervous...they must be busy...and if they're too busy to post, that's not a good sign.

I would not let the Euro scare everyone to death just yet, as it is still so early. We don't even have a closed center yet. But the fact that it is the Euro and not the CMC showing this does have me concerned...

Still, it probably won't be until Thursday-ish until we have a decent idea where this will might go...

[cycloneye]

I am eagered to see the upgrade of GFS on July 27.

[ronjon]

Yeah GFS still not showing any development. However, it is showing troughing developing over the east coast by Sunday-Monday time frame.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah ron, if we do have a strong system like the euro was showing last night, it would feel that weakness. The GFS is still clueless on development though.

[Dean4Storms]

Well let us hope and pray the GFS is correct, the heck with the 0z Euro!!!!

[ROCK]

the 12z CMC gives it a way out up the EC... adds credence to ridge breaking down scenerio....doesnt really intensify it though as did the EURO...

[Frank2]

Well let us hope and pray the GFS is correct, the heck with the 0z Euro!!!!

Agreed - the 00Z runs should shead some light on things...