12z
EP, 04, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1020W, 65, 987, HU
Down to 65 knots
EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA - DISCUSSION
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Not surprised they put it down to 65kts, given the presentation isn't as good as it was last night IMO.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CELIA - DISCUSSION
454
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION OF CELIA. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT.
IT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
BEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO
AROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK
ABOUT 10 KT LOWER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS AT OR ABOVE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE
MORE LATITUDE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 11.8N 102.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 11.7N 103.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 11.7N 104.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 11.8N 106.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 12.1N 108.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 13.0N 112.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION OF CELIA. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT.
IT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN
BEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO
AROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK
ABOUT 10 KT LOWER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS AT OR ABOVE THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE
MORE LATITUDE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 11.8N 102.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 11.7N 103.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 11.7N 104.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 11.8N 106.5W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 12.1N 108.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 13.0N 112.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W 70 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CELIA - DISCUSSION
I think that the shear is lessening, the convection has expanded again and the eyewall seems to be closed now, I still think it could peak at 100 kt.
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CELIA - DISCUSSION
18z
EP, 04, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1029W, 75, 979, HU
EP, 04, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1029W, 75, 979, HU
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493
WHXX01 KMIA 211927
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1927 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010) 20100621 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 102.9W 11.5N 104.0W 11.5N 105.6W 11.7N 107.6W
BAMD 11.6N 102.9W 11.8N 105.1W 12.0N 107.5W 12.2N 110.1W
BAMM 11.6N 102.9W 11.7N 104.6W 11.8N 106.6W 11.9N 109.0W
LBAR 11.6N 102.9W 11.7N 104.7W 11.7N 107.1W 12.0N 110.1W
SHIP 75KTS 82KTS 89KTS 94KTS
DSHP 75KTS 82KTS 89KTS 94KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 109.9W 13.4N 115.1W 15.1N 120.3W 16.8N 126.0W
BAMD 12.4N 112.9W 12.6N 118.3W 12.9N 122.6W 14.5N 126.1W
BAMM 12.1N 111.6W 12.8N 116.8W 13.8N 121.4W 15.5N 125.4W
LBAR 11.8N 113.0W 12.0N 118.8W 11.7N 123.6W 15.8N 125.2W
SHIP 96KTS 94KTS 83KTS 67KTS
DSHP 96KTS 94KTS 83KTS 67KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 102.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 101.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 100.0W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KMIA 211927
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1927 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE CELIA (EP042010) 20100621 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100621 1800 100622 0600 100622 1800 100623 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 102.9W 11.5N 104.0W 11.5N 105.6W 11.7N 107.6W
BAMD 11.6N 102.9W 11.8N 105.1W 12.0N 107.5W 12.2N 110.1W
BAMM 11.6N 102.9W 11.7N 104.6W 11.8N 106.6W 11.9N 109.0W
LBAR 11.6N 102.9W 11.7N 104.7W 11.7N 107.1W 12.0N 110.1W
SHIP 75KTS 82KTS 89KTS 94KTS
DSHP 75KTS 82KTS 89KTS 94KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100623 1800 100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 109.9W 13.4N 115.1W 15.1N 120.3W 16.8N 126.0W
BAMD 12.4N 112.9W 12.6N 118.3W 12.9N 122.6W 14.5N 126.1W
BAMM 12.1N 111.6W 12.8N 116.8W 13.8N 121.4W 15.5N 125.4W
LBAR 11.8N 113.0W 12.0N 118.8W 11.7N 123.6W 15.8N 125.2W
SHIP 96KTS 94KTS 83KTS 67KTS
DSHP 96KTS 94KTS 83KTS 67KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 102.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 101.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 100.0W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM
$$
NNNN
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955
WTPZ44 KNHC 212034
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE 1200 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS
SOME TILT TO THE HURRICANE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. A HINT OF AN EYE HAS
BEEN SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT HAS NOT BECOME APPARENT
IN INFRARED IMAGERY. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
THE BASIS FOR RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT.
THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE HURRICANE...INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND PEAKS CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
2-3 DAYS. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING...
HOWEVER IT TAKES THE HURRICANE INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AS ITS TRACK IS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE NHC FORECAST.
THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION. THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST OR
270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
FROM THIS MORNING. CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.6N 103.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 104.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 11.5N 105.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 11.5N 107.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 11.8N 109.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 113.4W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ44 KNHC 212034
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE 1200 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS
SOME TILT TO THE HURRICANE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. A HINT OF AN EYE HAS
BEEN SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT HAS NOT BECOME APPARENT
IN INFRARED IMAGERY. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
THE BASIS FOR RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT.
THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE HURRICANE...INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND PEAKS CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
2-3 DAYS. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING...
HOWEVER IT TAKES THE HURRICANE INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...AS ITS TRACK IS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE NHC FORECAST.
THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION. THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST OR
270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
FROM THIS MORNING. CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE
RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.6N 103.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 104.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 11.5N 105.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 11.5N 107.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 11.8N 109.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 12.9N 113.4W 95 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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425
WTPZ34 KNHC 212034
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
...CELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 103.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ34 KNHC 212034
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
...CELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 103.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CELIA - DISCUSSION
Macrocane wrote:I think that the shear is lessening, the convection has expanded again and the eyewall seems to be closed now, I still think it could peak at 100 kt.
I agree no real reason to think this can't reach 100kts, its got time on its side still and the microwave imagery looks pretty hot as well. I'd think we will probably end up just below 100kts however in the end.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: EPAC : HURRICANE CELIA - DISCUSSION
Up to 85 knots
EP, 04, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1036W, 85, 974, HU
At sunset
EP, 04, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1036W, 85, 974, HU
At sunset
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HURAKAN
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HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
0300 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 103.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
0300 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 103.6W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 103.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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HURRICANE CELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
...CELIA BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 103.9W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CELIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010
800 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
...CELIA BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 103.9W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. CELIA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CELIA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND CELIA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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