EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006202122
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010062018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952010
EP, 95, 2010061918, , BEST, 0, 80N, 850W, 15, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010062000, , BEST, 0, 80N, 860W, 15, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010062006, , BEST, 0, 80N, 870W, 15, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010062012, , BEST, 0, 80N, 880W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 80N, 890W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Aquawind]

Sheesh.. EPAC has gone hyper!

[KWT]

Yep, this area is a classic developmental zone in developing La Ninas, its why the first few months of developing La Nina seasons tend to be fairly slow from the looks of things.

Its pretty impressive start though it has to be said!

[srainhoutx]

[clfenwi]

12Z Canadian developed a storm out of this area. However, it also develops storms from my bath tub when the water's hot...

[cycloneye]

The outflow from Hurricane Celia may slow down development for this system.

[HURAKAN]

The outflow from Hurricane Celia may slow down development for this system.

Maybe, but Celia is quite far to the NW (like 600 nm) and the hurricane is quite small

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS
LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR AND
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...ABOUT 20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[Aquawind]

FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

Dang.. That is a quality forecast!

[Kingarabian]

I think its making up for last seasons June low start.

[Chacor]

The last time the EPac had four named storms by the end of June was a long time ago, in fact, 19 years ago. In 1991, Delores was named on June 24; the Pacific season ended 14/10/5 that year and the Atlantic season ended 8/4/2. Before that, 1990 saw five named storms in the EPac before the end of June.

Here's a look at the past 10 years, from 2001 to 2010:

Code: Select all

Year   5th TD   4th TS   4th TD   3rd TS   1st HU (?)
2010                     Jun 19   Jun 19   Jun 20 (C)
2009   Jul 14   Jul 15   Jul 10   Jul 10   Jun 23 (A)
2008   Jul 05   Jul 02   Jul 01   Jun 28   Jul 01 (B)
2007   Jul 14   Jul 23   Jul 09   Jul 15   Jul 16 (C)
2006   Jul 16   Jul 17   Jul 11   Jul 11   Jul 12 (B)
2005   Jul 18   Jul 04   Jul 03   Jun 26   May 19 (A)
2004   Jul 26   Jul 26   Jul 19   Jul 19   Jul 22 (C)
2003   Jul 10   Jul 06   Jul 06   Jun 26   Aug 24 (I)*
2002   Jul 20   Jul 20   Jul 09   Jul 12   May 30 (A)
2001   Jul 21   Jul 21   Jul 20   Jul 13   May 27 (A)

*Ignacio is the latest-forming first Eastern Pacific hurricane in the modern era.

The earliest TD-05E has formed in the last ten years has been July 5; the earliest the D-storm has formed is July 2, both in 2008.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... first visible

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CELIA LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO...AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

very broad area of low pressure

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Aquawind]

I don't see this on the S2K map anymore..

[HURAKAN]

I don't see this on the S2K map anymore..

I don't think it was discontinued bc the NHC is giving it a 40%.

[Aquawind]

I don't see this on the S2K map anymore..

I don't think it was discontinued bc the NHC is giving it a 40%.

Agreed.. The banding looks good..just needs to consolidate.

[cycloneye]

I think is a glitch on the graphic.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 95, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 912W, 20, 1009, LO

It´s alive