ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

With the upper ridge the gfs is forecasting and the extreme heat we are seeing in the Western Caribbean and gulf, we will have a problem with a tropical storm the gfdl is showing. Not seeing much right now to keep it in check

[tolakram]

Very odd. 12z run has absolutely nothing and the 18z develops it 5 minutes from now (exaggeration).

[Ivanhater]

18z Nogaps over Western Cuba

[KWT]

Well the GFDL races this thing to the NW, probably means it develops a different center and it therefore takes the system too far north. The track the GFDL suggests if you get rid of that idea that it shots NW in the next 24hrs (which is possible, but IMO not likely esp if it doesn't develop in that time frame) then its going to be a Yucatan threat, and that IMO is what this will eventually be.

[Ivanhater]

[clfenwi]

Note the BAMM takes the system over the Yucatan at the end of the forecast period, resulting in Decay SHIPS dropping intensity at the end.

Code: Select all

054
WHXX01 KWBC 212344
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2344 UTC MON JUN 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100622  0000   100622  1200   100623  0000   100623  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N  70.0W   15.9N  72.0W   16.9N  74.1W   17.9N  76.3W
BAMD    14.9N  70.0W   15.8N  72.0W   16.6N  73.9W   17.1N  75.7W
BAMM    14.9N  70.0W   15.7N  72.1W   16.6N  74.3W   17.3N  76.4W
LBAR    14.9N  70.0W   16.1N  72.2W   17.4N  74.5W   18.4N  76.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100624  0000   100625  0000   100626  0000   100627  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  78.5W   20.8N  82.7W   22.6N  86.3W   24.6N  89.2W
BAMD    17.4N  77.4W   17.8N  80.6W   18.5N  83.6W   18.9N  86.3W
BAMM    18.0N  78.5W   19.0N  82.3W   20.1N  85.5W   21.2N  88.0W
LBAR    19.2N  78.6W   20.7N  82.4W   22.8N  85.4W   24.5N  86.9W
SHIP        51KTS          59KTS          68KTS          79KTS
DSHP        51KTS          59KTS          68KTS          48KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.9N LONCUR =  70.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  67.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.7N LONM24 =  65.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[Aquawind]

Yea that GFDL heads north like the system was already formed.. weird 18z runs..

[KWT]

The SHIPS looks a little more realisitic this time and not quite explosive as on its 12z runs...probably still a little high before it goes over the Yucatan but wouldn't surprise me to see we have a TS by the end of the week.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL track, look at those waters in the northern gulf

[HouTXmetro]

[Ivanhater]

[Dean4Storms]

I just hope the GFDL is on crack with that run!

[lester]

GFDL track, look at those waters in the northern gulf

Never seen white on that map before

[KWT]

I think he general idea is correct but its a little too far north in the first 24hrs or so, of course if that ends up occuring and a low does develop, then I think the GFDL track probably looks reasonable enough.

Interestingly from what I've just seen sounds like a surface circulation maybe trying to form a touch south of where the models are...

[lonelymike]

I just hope the GFDL is on crack with that run!

Way too far north as the HRWF.

[RL3AO]

Never seen white on that map before

I've seen it in the Gulf of California and the Arabian Sea, but never in the Atlantic.

[Ivanhater]

Never seen white on that map before

I've seen it in the Gulf of California and the Arabian Sea, but never in the Atlantic.

And its June

[HouTXmetro]

Really HWRF? really, lol

[LSU2001]

We have been under a heat advisory for several days now and we were under heat advisory for much of the past few weeks. We have been averaging highs in the mid to upper 90's for several weeks with little to no cloud cover. I guess that is what has caused the shallow waters to become so hot.
just a guess,
Tim

[HeeBGBz]

We've had heat advisories here on the MGC for the past week. Mid 90's temps and high humidity.