ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Florida1118]

Yes, that is a far better example. Anywho, My personal opinion is this probably will not get TD until wed.-thurs. My opinion of course.

[Sanibel]

Needs to burst soon or it will lose it.


Center apparent on Shortwave IR.

[Blown Away]

Needs to burst soon or it will lose it. Center apparent on Shortwave IR.

My first look at 93L, is the convection up around 17N/71W close to the circulation center? I really don't see much movement??

[JTD]

was Wilma intensifying as it approached FL? I seem to recall it peaked south the Yucatan and shot off NE into FL as a cat 2....

To answer this question, Wilma rapidly intensified the Sunday just before it made landfall on Florida's west coast around 7 a-m Monday morning. The advisory intensity at landfall was 125 mph. I remember watching Wilma re-intensify that night. It was quite something. It did weaken to a 2 after it hit the Yucatan on Friday with 150 mph winds.

[Aric Dunn]

like I said earlier cyclogenesis should take place as it nears and passes 75w where the dynamics at the surface and in the low levels are are more favorable. the low level jet in this area is still holding the system back. come late tomorrow if the system is still maintaining some organization we should start to see some prominent banding features starting to take shape on the western side and some increase in convergence. the upper support is in place the only thing that is lacking is the low level support which is inhibited by SA.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

this system has looked like it has the potential to really "blow up" once it gets its act together. I think we will take any delay in this thing becoming a storm, because once it does, i see rapid intensification. Please keep that thing away from Texas!

[HurricaneRobert]

Usually we don't have tropical systems during hot dry summers, and up to this point it has been arid. Still, I don't want one of these as a rainmaker. We had some rain today and it had that smell of all the dust trying to disperse, so that seemed a bit ominous.

[Fego]

Looks like we have a code upgrade.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[Nederlander]

still orange at 50%.. im not too impressed with 93 L yet.. very disorganized at the moment

edit: based on current satellite obs, it has lost most of its convection on the NE, E, and S side of the system, but it does appear to be firing WNW of the center of circulation..

[wx247]

Am eagerly awaiting the visible images... it should be interesting tracking those shots today.

[KWT]

Still not looking that impressive I've got to say but we probably are still a few days away from any possible development.

Interestingly the ECM doesnm't even develop this region but instead develops something from the SW Caribbean.

[Nimbus]

I don't see any clear circulation center at all. just a bunch of random convection bursts with a center loci down around 15n 71w. The usual light shear off SA is pulling the moisture north toward Puerto Rico. Does look like conditions will be favorable soon though.

[wxman57]

The best place to find an LLC will be with surface obs, particularly at night. But I don't see any evidence of an LLC, and convection remains disorganized this morning. Development will take time. Good chance by Friday, though. Watch out NE Gulf coast next week (maybe). However, Euro and GFS indicate that the system won't be able to turn north due to a ridge along the central Gulf Coast. Way too early to be confident.

[cycloneye]

An anticyclone is above 93L and that may help increase the chances for it to organize in the next 2-3 days.

[KWT]

The best place to find an LLC will be with surface obs, particularly at night. But I don't see any evidence of an LLC, and convection remains disorganized this morning. Development will take time. .

Yeah this will take time, conditions aloft are very good and they are going to remain very good for quite a while as well. This region tends to struggle to get anything at this time probably due to SA, I think we need to really watch this system as it gets towards the W.Caribbean, thats where I think this thing will get going and develop. I also think this has got a very good shot at developing, best thus far this season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
HAITI...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[KWT]

Hmmm interesting that they've decided to drop the percentage a little bit, I'd guess Vis imagery shows there isn't much of a circulation still and so they've taken it down a little bit again.

Still this will be quite a long week I'd think!

[ronjon]

CC rotation evident near 16.3N-72.5W this morning - probably a mid-level feature but the area to watch later on if it works its way down to the surface. Convection on the increase again this morning. By the way, the wave appears to be tracking very close to the GFDL solution so far.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[jasons2k]

It's going to take it's time until it gets further NW, away from SA. This one will require patience but I still think we will see Alex by the end of the week. The setup cannot be ignored IMHO.

[ROCK]

hmmm, maybe the the model were on to something after all.....No surface low yet from this am's vis....just some mid level turning.....it still has a long way to go to be anything other than a wave...