ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Patience required

[cperez1594]

Check out the Euro Model jeez. South Texas !

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/2561/00zeurotropical850mbvor.gif

[Bocadude85]

Nice view.. looks as if things are slowly coming together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[Rockin4NOLA]

Nice view.. looks as if things are slowly coming together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

Yep, its cookin' in the Carribbean oven thats for sure. I've been reading various discussions and some people are talking about airflow connections between 95E and 93L..is that still possible?

[KWT]

That jet streak to the north seems to be providing some nice outflow for that convection to the south of DR.

As others have said it looks like its following the GFDL forecast quite well at the moment in terms of track.

[Sanibel]

93L meets June reality in the Caribbean. Storms have trouble making it in the Caribbean in July let alone June. Looks like some kind of South American flow has sheared it from the S and SW. Still some center circulation seen on visible heading towards better June formation waters. If it makes it there before being stripped out.

[HURAKAN]

There may be some turning, or it's juts a trick of the clouds

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 22 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-022

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF JAMAICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1330Z
D. 17.0N 77.5W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 24/0100Z
D. 17.5N 79.5W
E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

[KWT]

I've opened up a recon thread given it looks like we may well have recon tomorrow if it doesn't fall apart over the next 18hrs or so. Cheers for the update srainhoutx!

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that the only reason that the TWO decreased the percentage is becuase they don't believe it will develop in the short term. I do think it may develop in the long-term though.

[CourierPR]

93L meets June reality in the Caribbean. Storms have trouble making it in the Caribbean in July let alone June. Looks like some kind of South American flow has sheared it from the S and SW. Still some center circulation seen on visible heading towards better June formation waters. If it makes it there before being stripped out.

Contrary to this post, I think we are seeing a system slowly coming together, not being stripped out.

[Aric Dunn]

wait till it passes 75 west..

[lrak]

Starting to turn, and what would be a good guess at where the center might form?

[cycloneye]

The latest at 14:45 UTC or 10:45 AM EDT.

[Aquawind]

I see nothing at the surface yet other than alot of moisture and LL clouds moving N-NW..

[Weatherfreak000]

wait till it passes 75 west..

No need, 93L is no longer attached to the ITCZ, as well as it's location as opposed to South America.


I must give you your props Aric, I learned a good lesson from you yesterday. The proximity to South America is a huge factor this early in the season. The latest satellite imagery however suggest in my opinion that 93L is currently looking better than it ever has however. I believe 93L has a decent chance of developing before 75W.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

There almost seems to be 2 bundles of primary energy with this one, and I can almost see 2 separate rotations trying to develop independently. What about a split personality for this one? Is it possile that a part of this will continue to head nearly westerly, with one packet of energy, while the second part of the storm develops from the more northern (larger/stronger) packet of energy that continues in a more wnw/nw direction? Maybe that norhtern break off of energy is what tries to form that bahama low indicated on som eof the models into next week?

[Comanche]

Check out the Euro Model jeez. South Texas !

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/2561/00zeurotropical850mbvor.gif

At least this would keep it FAR away from oil, which is going to be a primary dynamic this year, (as far as -removed- it away from that area).

[Macrocane]

There almost seems to be 2 bundles of primary energy with this one, and I can almost see 2 separate rotations trying to develop independently. What about a split personality for this one? ... Maybe that norhtern break off of energy is what tries to form that bahama low indicated on som eof the models into next week?

I see two possible rotations too, the scenario that you mention is a possibility (one piece enters the Gulf of Mexico and the other near the Bahamas) and other possible scenario is that one center will become dominant destroying the other one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

wait till it passes 75 west..

No need, 93L is no longer attached to the ITCZ, as well as it's location as opposed to South America.


I must give you your props Aric, I learned a good lesson from you yesterday. The proximity to South America is a huge factor this early in the season. The latest satellite imagery however suggest in my opinion that 93L is currently looking better than it ever has however. I believe 93L has a decent chance of developing before 75W.

it still needs to move farther west the reason for this is the southerly in flow is still inhibited from SA once the whole system moves completely away and it enters the western and carrib then it will have a much better chance and the convergence should begin to increase. look for a circulation ( if any at all ) to begin to form on the SW side of the system

so essentially as it passes south of Jamaica later today is when things could start to improve with the system,..