ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Vort is better defined than yesterday

[ROCK]

still looks mid level right now. Not barfing outflow boundaries so that is a good sign for developement.

[Ivanhater]

I agree Rock, seems it might be trying to work down to the surface today. Well see

[HURAKAN]

The MLC looks more and more pronounced as the hours pass. It will be interesting to see how it interacts with Hispaniola and maybe Cuba.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I currently see a strong tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean moving west. That's pretty typical for this time of year - nothing at all organized at the surface and at the mid-levels just barely some kind of rotation. Ridging is present over the SE US out into the Western Atlantic and Bahamas. That keeps this on a W to WNW movement over the next several days. It moves under an upper anticyclone during this time positioned between the Western Caribbean and Central Caribbean. Model support just isn't that good still and I have to say my thinking is along the lines of the 12Z GFS. I expect to see the wave head towards the Yucatan and basically pulse periodically with bursts of convection as a vigorous wave does. A low may develop in the WCAR but not a named system but I have 80% confidence in this forecast. So I give it a 20% chance of development at this time. Steering looks into the Yucatan and the BOC thereafter.

Remember: just because conditions are ideal for development does NOT mean it will develop. Very few waves in the Atlantic ever make it to named status.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Is it possible the circulation center could be consolidating up near 17N/72W or just S of DR/Haiti border? Appears the convection is moving NW but maybe it's rotating around??

[ROCK]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I currently see a strong tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean moving west. That's pretty typical for this time of year - nothing at all organized at the surface and at the mid-levels just barely some kind of rotation. Ridging is present over the SE US out into the Western Atlantic and Bahamas. That keeps this on a W to WNW movement over the next several days. It moves under an upper anticyclone during this time positioned between the Western Caribbean and Central Caribbean. Model support just isn't that good still and I have to say my thinking is along the lines of the 12Z GFS. I expect to see the wave head towards the Yucatan and basically pulse periodically with bursts of convection as a vigorous wave does. A low may develop in the WCAR but not a named system but I have 80% confidence in this forecast. So I give it a 20% chance of development at this time. Steering looks into the Yucatan and the BOC thereafter.

Remember: just because conditions are ideal for development does NOT mean it will develop. Very few waves in the Atlantic ever make it to named status.

I dont know Gator...in 2005 there were plenty of waves that made named status....But I get your point....20% seems low though....from what we are seeing today and the latest GFDL.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[Macrocane]

I don't think there's barely a rotation, I think that we can clearly see a rotation although it's also clearly that it's not at the surface. It has a lot of work to do but IMO it's more than a strong tropical wave, I'm actually not expecting a big system but I think that a TD weak TS is very possible.

[ROCK]

Down to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

Ok I was set up....Gator goes 20% I say its low...now the NHC goes 20%.....fun times...

[CourierPR]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Follow us on
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I expect this 93L to become the first named cyclone of the season. It is slowly organizing and should continue to develop. Also, since conditions are primed for development this season, I think we will see an above average number of waves develop into named cyclones.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Ivanhater]

Seems to be on track, like wxman said. It has a good chance on Friday. The NHC did go on to elaborate that conditions will improve after 48 hours. Chances are the same

[KWT]

Yeah they've gone down because they are probably watching the area that was further west and that has since decayed again, I think you'll see the NHC shift the attention to the eastern region soon, and you'll see the track position go to the NE of where they have it right now, if any center is going to form in the next 24-36hrs, that'll be where it is.

Problem is the shear has increased a little as the upper high starts to move to the west, not huge shear but probably 10-15kts is over that eastern region of convection, maybe even more on the northern part which has just decayed.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC almost had no choice but to drive the percentages up so much yesterday. It went from looking nothing at all to on the cusp over a D-Max....you kinda have to consider its development chances if that's possible in the graveyard.

3 Factors were set into place here:

1. The storm is having trouble forming a Low Level Center. This is being caused by many factors of course; among these I believe the vorticity strong to its left and right has been the biggest. Vorticity maps suggest the strong circulations of the EPAC, as well as the tropical wave behind it may have been stealing the energy 93L needs to spin up. ALSO, I would like to note 2005 did NOT have this trouble. There was an abundance of Vorticity as well as low pressures across the Atlantic. The WPAC has been having a slow start. The energy has to go somewhere, the question is where?

2. The General Effects of the Graveyard and..

3. It's attachment to the ITCZ which coincidentally, could have been responsible for robbing 92L of its energy as well.


Alot of questions to be asked here. I like 93L for development but I am going to be changing my opinion about this season otherwise. If we had the energy 2005 had, I strongly believe we would have 3 named storms so far, including the early season subtropical formation.

[lester]

The NHC almost had no choice but to drive the percentages up so much yesterday. It went from looking nothing at all to on the cusp over a D-Max....you kinda have to consider its development chances if that's possible in the graveyard.

3 Factors were set into place here:

1. The storm is having trouble forming a Low Level Center. This is being caused by many factors of course; among these I believe the vorticity strong to its left and right has been the biggest. Vorticity maps suggest the strong circulations of the EPAC, as well as the tropical wave behind it may have been stealing the energy 93L needs to spin up. ALSO, I would like to note 2005 did NOT have this trouble. There was an abundance of Vorticity as well as Low Pressures across the Atlantic. The WPAC has been having a slow start. The energy has to go somewhere, the question is where.

2. The General Effects of the Graveyard and..

3. It's attachment to the ITCZ which coincidentally, could have been responsible for robbing 92L of its energy as well.


Alot of questions to be asked here. I like 93L for development but I am going to be changing my opinion about this season otherwise. If we had the energy 2005 had, I strongly believe we would have 3 named storms so far, including the early season subtropical formation.[

It's June. The Atlantic historically is inactive in June. Even 2005 was fairly inactive in June. Have patience, young grasshopper

[RainWind]

It is amazing that anything ever forms! Everything has to line up just right. It doesn't have a top, it doesn't have a bottom, it is being sheared, where is the high, where is the low, the front is where??? I believe that is why I am fascinated with these storms, to be able to watch them form or not form is as I said earlier, is nothing short of incredible. This 93L doesn't appear to be too healthy at the moment, but, if everything lines up, then it may be time to name the first 2010 storm. Right now though, 20% chance seems fair.

Hope everyone has a safe hurricane season with no landfalling 'canes anywhere around them!

[HURAKAN]

removed

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC almost had no choice but to drive the percentages up so much yesterday. It went from looking nothing at all to on the cusp over a D-Max....you kinda have to consider its development chances if that's possible in the graveyard.

3 Factors were set into place here:

1. The storm is having trouble forming a Low Level Center. This is being caused by many factors of course; among these I believe the vorticity strong to its left and right has been the biggest. Vorticity maps suggest the strong circulations of the EPAC, as well as the tropical wave behind it may have been stealing the energy 93L needs to spin up. ALSO, I would like to note 2005 did NOT have this trouble. There was an abundance of Vorticity as well as Low Pressures across the Atlantic. The WPAC has been having a slow start. The energy has to go somewhere, the question is where.

2. The General Effects of the Graveyard and..

3. It's attachment to the ITCZ which coincidentally, could have been responsible for robbing 92L of its energy as well.


Alot of questions to be asked here. I like 93L for development but I am going to be changing my opinion about this season otherwise. If we had the energy 2005 had, I strongly believe we would have 3 named storms so far, including the early season subtropical formation.[

It's June. The Atlantic historically is inactive in June. Even 2005 was fairly inactive in June. Have patience, young grasshopper

Oh no, don't have me mistaken here. I'm not one of the guys you'll see entertaining the "Season Cancel" thread by any means, but i'll be inclined to lean against a hyperseason then. The reason being you just start to have some difficulty fitting those storms in there. Especially when they can't share...unlike 2005.(Ala Maria,Nate,Ophelia)

[HURAKAN]

low pressure forecasted to form south of Jamaica