
ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
12z HWRF Animation
Looks ok on intensity (TS) ,not the monster that GFDL has.Tracks thru the Yucatan Channel.
Looks ok on intensity (TS) ,not the monster that GFDL has.Tracks thru the Yucatan Channel.
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It would surprise me more if this disturbance were to develop into a tropical storm or hurricane then if it were not to.
Most of the models (except the CMC) are backing off from anything significant developing so that just adds more wood to the fire. But as I always say in the tropics anything is possible. IMO
Most of the models (except the CMC) are backing off from anything significant developing so that just adds more wood to the fire. But as I always say in the tropics anything is possible. IMO
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ECM still develops a system and moves it into the Gulf after hitting the Yucatan...
Actually stormcenter, its the other way round, most models are slightly more bullish today then they were yesterday, the GFS/CMC/GFDL/HWRF/ECM/NOGAPS all develop at least a TD/weak TS though very few go beyond that sort of strength, but most do develop something weak in the W.Caribbean/Gulf.
Actually stormcenter, its the other way round, most models are slightly more bullish today then they were yesterday, the GFS/CMC/GFDL/HWRF/ECM/NOGAPS all develop at least a TD/weak TS though very few go beyond that sort of strength, but most do develop something weak in the W.Caribbean/Gulf.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
Opps,yes,taken out.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
12z rundown of models is certainly stronger today

It seems though the euro develops the panama low, not really 93l

It seems though the euro develops the panama low, not really 93l
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ECM only weakly strengthens the system in the Caribbean, most of the strengthening occurs in the Gulf, system heads north, then has the door closed on it so to speak before the upper high shifts eastwards over the states and the system comes northwards again towards landfall at 240hrs.
Ivanhater, trace back to 24hrs time, weak system just south of Jamaica which heads westwards...
Ivanhater, trace back to 24hrs time, weak system just south of Jamaica which heads westwards...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
No 18z run of the BAMS yet. I guess they are trying to pinpoint a circulation to then start the run or they may wait until the 00z time.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
Slightly late 18Z SHIPS and BAMs.
Code: Select all
977
WHXX01 KWBC 221923
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1923 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100622 1800 100623 0600 100623 1800 100624 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 74.4W 16.1N 76.6W 16.9N 78.7W 17.4N 80.6W
BAMD 15.5N 74.4W 16.1N 76.3W 16.5N 78.1W 16.7N 79.6W
BAMM 15.5N 74.4W 16.0N 76.5W 16.6N 78.5W 17.0N 80.1W
LBAR 15.5N 74.4W 16.1N 76.8W 16.9N 79.3W 17.5N 81.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100624 1800 100625 1800 100626 1800 100627 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 82.5W 18.9N 85.6W 19.9N 88.3W 21.2N 90.9W
BAMD 16.8N 81.0W 17.1N 84.1W 17.6N 87.1W 18.1N 90.1W
BAMM 17.2N 81.6W 17.8N 84.4W 18.6N 87.1W 19.6N 89.8W
LBAR 18.1N 83.9W 19.8N 88.0W 21.5N 91.1W 22.6N 92.7W
SHIP 52KTS 71KTS 86KTS 96KTS
DSHP 52KTS 71KTS 86KTS 36KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 74.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 71.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 68.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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You go to love the ECM for the "entertainment" factor sometimes especially when you consider that far out (240 hrs).
I'll never forget the two major hurricanes it had hitting N.O. one after another from the east a couple of seasons back. Anyway there are some factors (possible shear) this may have to deal with if it were to make into the GOM that the models always have a hard time picking up on. IMO
I'll never forget the two major hurricanes it had hitting N.O. one after another from the east a couple of seasons back. Anyway there are some factors (possible shear) this may have to deal with if it were to make into the GOM that the models always have a hard time picking up on. IMO
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Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932010 06/22/10 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 52 64 71 79 86 93 96
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 52 64 71 79 86 55 36
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 55 71 91 106 67 39
SHEAR (KT) 1 7 5 8 6 8 5 2 7 5 9 5 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -3 1 -2 -3 -5 -3 -5 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 326 227 267 308 344 322 14 22 55 41 62 28 72
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 152 153 154 154 154 161 161 154 149 147
ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 146 146 146 145 143 143 150 149 142 137 133
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 11 12
700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 76 75 71 69 70 69 69 69 69 67
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4
850 MB ENV VOR 87 91 92 78 74 72 68 68 56 62 40 36 30
200 MB DIV 51 53 56 55 58 25 13 20 14 6 9 7 5
LAND (KM) 285 241 200 158 158 232 298 218 217 201 49 -94 -82
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 80.1 81.6 83.0 84.4 85.7 87.1 88.5 89.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 73 74 80 93 110 113 109 92 97 89 84 60 16
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 27. 39. 46. 54. 61. 68. 71.
** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/22/2010 00 UTC **
TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model)
CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY
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- vbhoutex
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS
I'm sure it has already been said, but I will say it again. Until the models have a good LLC to latch on to they are going to continue to be all over the place with widely varying intensities as well. We've seen this over and over.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - MODELS

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Looks like the models are becoming increasingly confident of a Yucatan landfall. I'd think thats looking quite likely now given most of the models are too far north and east right now.
Also raises the chances of a 2nd landfall possibly in Mexico rather then Texas...though the track to the NW is a logical one as well...
Also raises the chances of a 2nd landfall possibly in Mexico rather then Texas...though the track to the NW is a logical one as well...
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