ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Simply an HPC generated "long duration" model depicting low and high pressure areas. I don't think it suggests whether it is just a low or a hurricane...simply and area of low pressure.

But in the very right coner of the 2nd and 3rd graphic they show a hurricane, then a TS the next day. So they do have intensity so.... No alex according to them?

I was looking at that too and I was like "what." If we have a hurricane in the Caribbean in 3 days, then we would have Alex.

I'm confused what they meant.

I think the hurricane in day 3 and tropical storm in day 4 is some glitch bc it doesn't appear here

[srainhoutx]

That's Celia in the EPAC.

[KWT]

Yeah your seeing Celia in the EPAC, but the graphic makes it look like its in the E.caribbean.

The HPC probably being rightly conservative in the longer term, but the fact they do show a closed low out to day 7 is interesting and tends to usually suggest something is likely to get up there.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow:

That's Celia in the EPAC.

You're absolutely right! LOL

[Air Force Met]

dont get to caught up in the HPC long range...they are the HPC and not the NHC for a reason...

Don't be so quick to dismiss them. First of all...they coordinate their plots with TPC during the conference calls....they don't just put out a totally separate product. Second...I have found that when issuing forecasts they actually do a lot more "forecast reasoning" and a lot less "model consensus"...which I like. I really do not like a forecast that is derived primarily from splitting the models down the middle. HPC does a lot of initialization...they pick a model that is working...and they hang their hat on it...win or lose.

[cycloneye]

Here is a ship report from the area. A north wind west of the 18z position.

[Florida1118]

The winds dont seem to be changing around into a circle, so no LLC is there. Yet.

[srainhoutx]

dont get to caught up in the HPC long range...they are the HPC and not the NHC for a reason...

Don't be so quick to dismiss them. First of all...they coordinate their plots with TPC during the conference calls....they don't just put out a totally separate product. Second...I have found that when issuing forecasts they actually do a lot more "forecast reasoning" and a lot less "model consensus"...which I like. I really do not like a forecast that is derived primarily from splitting the models down the middle. HPC does a lot of initialization...they pick a model that is working...and they hang their hat on it...win or lose.

Thank you AFM. I have never understood the sometimes lack of respect that the HPC receives. One of my first stops of the day weather wise is the HPC discussions.

[Air Force Met]

The winds dont seem to be changing around into a circle, so no LLC is there. Yet.

There is no LLC...but there is a broad area of low pressure...at least at cloud level. You can see some of the cu field drifting ever so slightly to the east in the high res imagery....which is a change from this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a ship report from the area. A north wind west of the 18z position.

the west wind... south of that north wind is very interesting..

[KWT]

Interesting cycloneye, probably means there is a elongated broad low system there, going to need a lot mor ein the way of convection to really get going, these systems tend to take a good 36hrs to get, by which time it'll be in the prime time W.Caribbean and on Yucatan's doorstep...

[Aric Dunn]

The winds dont seem to be changing around into a circle, so no LLC is there. Yet.

There is no LLC...but there is a broad area of low pressure...at least at cloud level. You can see some of the cu field drifting ever so slightly to the east in the high res imagery....which is a change from this morning.

yes you can and if we can get some more concentrated convection in this area then things may turn around a little in organization..as the convergence will increase..

[Air Force Met]

Thank you AFM. I have never understood the sometimes lack of respect that the HPC receives. One of my first stops of the day weather wise is the HPC discussions.

They are very knowledgeable. There is a big difference at the NHC between forecasters concerning the HPC. Some barely ask them the time of day during the conference calls....and some give them considerable time to explain their thoughts and reasoning. I always enjoy listening to what they have to say and plotting their points. They are usually within 2 degrees (1 most of the time)...even at 5 days...with the NHC.

[vbhoutex]

I took a recent look at the visibles and try as I might I can not come up with any kind of LLC attempting to form. I even walked away for a while and came back and regenerated them and still can't come up with it. In fact I am having a little trouble finding the MLC I saw earlier today. 93L is definitely taking its' time and the longer it takes the further West it will end up if it doesn't go poof. This I am not liking for two reasons. First, it ups the chance of a W or NW GOM hit if it develops and also puts the oil disaster area on the E side of the system which will create an onshore flow. I don't like either scenario. Go poof 93L!!

[Air Force Met]

I took a recent look at the visibles and try as I might I can not come up with any kind of LLC attempting to form. I even walked away for a while and came back and regenerated them and still can't come up with it. In fact I am having a little trouble finding the MLC I saw earlier today. 93L is definitely taking its' time and the longer it takes the further West it will end up if it doesn't go poof. This I am not liking for two reasons. First, it ups the chance of a W or NW GOM hit if it develops and also puts the oil disaster area on the E side of the system which will create an onshore flow. I don't like either scenario. Go poof 93L!!

The MLC is still there and is still spinning...it has just lost its convection. It is located near 17-17.5 and 72. As I mentioned in an earlier post...there really is no LLC. It is more of a broad area of low pressure...but there are some areas of light and vrb winds...and even some westerly winds seen in observations and the cu field. If you look near 14.5 and 76 you can see this...and if you look to the west of this point...you can see winds out of the due north. This is an indication that we have a very sharp trof now...which we did not have before. If we get some deep convection over this area tonight...or even close to it (probably to the NE)...it won't take long for some Mid level vorticity to work its way down to the sfc.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=2&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=14&map=latlon

[Ivanhater]

Great analysis AF. Glad to see you back

[Florida1118]

Nothing to do but wait, watch, and look at TWO.

[KWT]

The MLC is still there and is still spinning...it has just lost its convection. It is located near 17-17.5 and 72. As I mentioned in an earlier post...there really is no LLC. It is more of a broad area of low pressure...but there are some areas of light and vrb winds...and even some westerly winds seen in observations and the cu field. If you look near 14.5 and 76 you can see this...and if you look to the west of this point...you can see winds out of the due north. This is an indication that we have a very sharp trof now...which we did not have before. If we get some deep convection over this area tonight...or even close to it (probably to the NE)...it won't take long for some Mid level vorticity to work its way down to the sfc.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=2&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=14&map=latlon

Yeah thanks for that AF, it is getting sharper now and as you say if we can get some decent convection over the system you'd see the system develop stronger, esp if it can develop some of its own convergence away from that convection which is heading into DR/Haiti.

Its going to be a close call as to whether it hits the Yucatan or not but thats a long way down the line still and much depends if it even forms!

[Ivanhater]

[Sanibel]

That MLC could be a vortex from island interaction.


Obvious energy in the convection but poor organization. The longer it keeps that energy the more likely it will form.