ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[brunota2003]

Out of curiosity, if a hurricane were to hit somewhere, I know it tends to drive spray around like it is cool, would that spray be completely oil, or a mix, or just water? The spray will go a lot further than the initial surge/waves will.

[KWT]

Wow another really rather agressive GFDL run when it gets to the Gulf...

Also interestingly it barely does anything with it in the next 48hrs or so and only really gets it going in the run in with the Yucatan...I think its quite plauseable in that respect...

[HurricaneRobert]

Just hope it keeps going to the right.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow another really rather agressive GFDL run when it gets to the Gulf...

Also interestingly it barely does anything with it in the next 48hrs or so and only really gets it going in the run in with the Yucatan...I think its quite plauseable in that respect...

I don't like the intensity or that sudden right turn, seems this run it breaks the ridge down over the SE and Florida more which puts this passing closer to the Deepwater Horizon mess. If that solution even comes close oil is going to bathe LA.

[Dean4Storms]

Just hope it keeps going to the right.

What?? Are you out of your mind? Any further to the right and all of the eastern Gulf Coast is going to be bathed in oil.

It needs to head toward MEXICO!!!

[brunota2003]

I think by further to the right, means over Cuba and into the Atlantic

[Dean4Storms]

I think by further to the right, means over Cuba and into the Atlantic

If so I'm sorry for the reaction. I don't want my house here just east of Destin bathed in oil!

[antonlsu]

It doesnt really matter where it goes in the gulf, it will produce swell that will fluctuate the location of the oil

[Nimbus]

Out of curiosity, if a hurricane were to hit somewhere, I know it tends to drive spray around like it is cool, would that spray be completely oil, or a mix, or just water? The spray will go a lot further than the initial surge/waves will.

If there were still light volatile elements floating around they would evaporate and condense out with the rain. Of course the actual rain/oil ratio would be minuscule when you think of the volume of water that falls from a tropical system. I think the worst case scenario involves a storm driving the oil slick deep into the gulf coast marshes and wetlands.

[Jagno]

OFF TOPIC- Mods please keep this here for a bit. It really needs to be said right from the start. I'm a Gulf Coast resident and we are all going through some difficult times and tend to forget that although BP and other entities haven't been helpful, it doesn't mean everyone is like that. Rules are rules and if you decide to move or delete I do completely understand.

Gulf Coasters, we are going to have to be very patient this season and try not to let our valid fears take over our reasoning and logic here on Storm2k. No one here wishes any of us to be bathed in oil. Unfortunately, we are going to see oil even moreso than we already are no matter what. We are all on edge as it is with this toxic mess destroying our lives but let's not misdirect it to the wrong people. These people here have done nothing but help us when past storms have threatened our shores. They've gotten us out of harms way days before the storms hit and even when other sources said it wouldn't. Let them help and we certainly don't want to shut down the very ones that try so hard to help us.

[clfenwi]

00Z tropical models

Code: Select all

464
WHXX01 KWBC 230030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC WED JUN 23 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100623 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100623  0000   100623  1200   100624  0000   100624  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  75.2W   16.3N  77.4W   17.0N  79.3W   17.7N  81.2W
BAMD    15.6N  75.2W   16.1N  77.0W   16.5N  78.6W   16.7N  80.0W
BAMM    15.6N  75.2W   16.1N  77.3W   16.7N  79.0W   17.1N  80.5W
LBAR    15.6N  75.2W   16.2N  77.5W   16.9N  79.8W   17.4N  82.1W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100625  0000   100626  0000   100627  0000   100628  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  82.7W   19.5N  85.5W   21.2N  87.7W   23.5N  89.5W
BAMD    16.9N  81.4W   17.5N  84.5W   18.2N  87.4W   19.0N  90.0W
BAMM    17.5N  81.7W   18.5N  84.3W   20.0N  86.5W   21.8N  88.3W
LBAR    18.0N  84.2W   19.9N  88.0W   21.6N  90.8W   23.3N  91.3W
SHIP        54KTS          71KTS          84KTS          92KTS
DSHP        54KTS          71KTS          84KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.6N LONCUR =  75.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  15.3N LONM12 =  72.9W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  14.9N LONM24 =  70.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[KWT]

I think by further to the right, means over Cuba and into the Atlantic

Sadly that solution isn't going to happen, I think the best hope is it hits Yucatan and steering currents fall apart enough for the system to lose as much energy as possible. Of course there is always a chance it doesn't even hit the Yucatan or just scrapes it like we see on the 18z run.

[clfenwi]

Note the shift in the BAM suite (Correction/Clarification: At first glance it appeared that all three had shifted to the tip of the Yucatan. Taking a closer look, I note that the deep BAM, while shifted to the right, did not shift as far out as the shallow and medium.)

[brunota2003]

The BAMs are becoming stacked...a sign wind shear is very weak.

[HouTXmetro]

I know there is no true center yet but are we starting to get model agreement? All signs point to a system smack in the Central Gulf

[Macrocane]

Just hope it keeps going to the right.

What?? Are you out of your mind? Any further to the right and all of the eastern Gulf Coast is going to be bathed in oil.

It needs to head toward MEXICO!!!

That's a very very non-selfish wish... I understand you don't want oil in the coast but I'm also sure that Mexican people don't want to deal with a hurricane either, it would be better if it doesn't develop at all or if it takes a fish track wich seems unlikely.

[Nimbus]

Are they working the bugs out of the new high resolution HWRF model. I notice its the furthest model to the right with this run. What variables are they using that are different than the other models that are in consensus for a Yucatan encounter?

[Ivanhater]

[Weatherfreak000]

Model confidence is increasing, a good sign for future development.

[lonelymike]

Model confidence is increasing, a good sign for future development.

Indeed