ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Cdeck81]

Does anyone expect an upgrade at 2 AM?

[Florida1118]

Possibly 30% but not much more I think

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Florida1118]

Looked a little more organized to me but they are the NHC. I know its slow development but this has very little changing and Im starting to dought...

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow...I can tell you guys one thing, 93L may have repeated what it repeated last night, but I think tonight is different. Right before visible gave away we got a hint of a strong MLC signature. Since then that curvature has even been present tonight on IR and it's the area currently that is reforming the convection. The catch here is I would say 93L is now refiring that convection faster than it has before, and faster than 92L did.

I am not saying that means it's going to form an LLC overnight. If the trend overall is it gets slightly better every day, would you agree a LLC formation should be apparent within the next 36% hours?

[Florida1118]

Wow...I can tell you guys one thing, 93L may have repeated what it repeated last night, but I think tonight is different. Right before visible gave away we got a hint of a strong MLC signature. Since then that curvature has even been present tonight on IR and it's the area currently that is reforming the convection. The catch here is I would say 93L is now refiring that convection faster than it has before, and faster than 92L did.

I am not saying that means it's going to form an LLC overnight. If the trend overall is it gets slightly better every day, would you agree a LLC formation should be apparent within the next 36% hours?

Well, it is fireing convection unlike last night when almost nothing flared... But I dont get the 50% they gave to it when it first showed up, even more disorganized than this, and its still 20%. Were they expecting it to intensify rapidly in the 48 hours when it was 50?

[Florida1118]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ALONG 17N75W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVERS A
LARGE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE S BAHAMAS FROM 14N-23N
BETWEEN 64W-79W. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Weatherfreak000]

I am extremely impressed at how the MLC is developing such strong convection so fast tonight. I expect to see a much improved system tomorrow.

[bahamaswx]

Still bursting deep convection well away from the MLC, but the popcorn convection over the MLC is now starting to deepen as well. I'm surprised they're only giving this a 20% chance for development over the next 48hours. That should soon change.

[carolina_73]

Take your pick



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[KWT]

I am not saying that means it's going to form an LLC overnight. If the trend overall is it gets slightly better every day, would you agree a LLC formation should be apparent within the next 36% hours?

Well, it is fireing convection unlike last night when almost nothing flared... But I dont get the 50% they gave to it when it first showed up, even more disorganized than this, and its still 20%. Were they expecting it to intensify rapidly in the 48 hours when it was 50?[/quote]

Its because the wave axis itself is still not showing no really development and thats the region they are watching. The MLC behind it could develop but it has nothing at the surface so its prone to decaying very quickly.

If the wave axis doesn't develop, then the models will need to shift eastwards with thier solution.

[rockyman]

The MLC south of Haiti has persisted all night, and the exposed low cloud deck, just to the west of the MLC, appears to be moving to the south. This indicates to me that the MLC might be working down to the surface. Of course, all will be revealed once the visibles are available.

[KWT]

If thats the case then the system will probably end up coming close to Cuba Rockyman...and the models will certainly have to shift eastwards, conditions aloft aren't quite as favourable either in the eastern area, its not bad but it is on the edge of the upper high.

[cycloneye]

The first visible image of the day.

[sphelps8681]

Do we know if Recon is still going to happen today?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Do we know if Recon is still going to happen today?

Not yet. We will know what the NHC's thoughts are about that when the 8am TWO is released.

[KWT]

They maybe tempted to have a look into that MLC convection sphelps8681, though they may well just decide not to bother with it today.

[cycloneye]

I think they will cancel todays mission to wait for more organization to take place.Tommorow would be better if a trend starts for it to organize.

[Blown Away]

Where the NHC is telling us the circulation center is and where the convection bursting is two different locations. The 00z models were initializing near 15.6N/75.2W, based on that the NHC's position should be closer to 77W. The MLC S of Haiti is IMO maybe drifting WNW? Something has gotta give IMO.

[KWT]

That Vis imagery is quite impressive because you've got three convective masses pretty much exactly the same size!

Well the best shot at development probably is with the MLC for the time being unless the wave axis develops further west.