ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#601 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 23, 2010 7:55 am

I'm fairly certain you can see low level inflow into the blob below Haiti in this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The lazy circulation near Jamaica looks less and less well defined and near the end of the loop you can see clouds once again moving e/se where the circulation once was. I'm not sure I would call this better organized, just changing at the moment.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#602 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Wed Jun 23, 2010 7:58 am

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I would say this looks like a fairly vigorous typical early season mess. There has been no obvious organization to speak of. Nice convection recently over what I thought was a bit of a swirl around 17n/72w last night, but thats collapsing. It fails the persistence test so we will have to "wait and see". I'm glad at least something is out there to watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#603 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:07 am

The latest GFDL wants to develop low pressure near 17N-77W over the next 12 hours - due south of JAM. This also is the highest zone of 850 mb vorticity. If it's going to develop like the models say it will - this should be the area to focus on.
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#604 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:08 am

Invest 93L looking more organized. From Joe Bastardi's morning post:

So strap in, here we go. The tropics are bubbling and the lid is about to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#605 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:12 am

I guess because there really isn't anything to talk about right now concerning 93L.


lonelymike wrote:The TWC gave Dr. Knabb like 20 seconds for the tropical update. He mentioned the hurricane in the EPAC and nothing about 93.
A segment about a tree falling on a mini-van received the majority of the time. I miss John Hope and Steve Lyons :cry:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#606 Postby Javlin » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:22 am

Call me crazy but I remember about 4 runs ago the CMC coming up with some stupid solution with 2 systems coming out of this area :roll: and now I am wondering both are perkulating quite well this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#607 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:25 am

ronjon wrote:out to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.


I'm having a hard time believing that when there is no convection. All of the heavy convection is well East of that point. But we shall see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#608 Postby JPmia » Wed Jun 23, 2010 8:48 am

Me he dado cuenta que hay un buen número de hablantes de español en el foro que podría no ser capaz de escribir en Inglés asi que aquí hay un enlace al traductor de Google para traducir antes de publicarlos. No es perfecto, pero debe ayudarle a:

"I notice there are a good number of spanish speakers in the forum that might not be able to write in english so here is a link to the Google Translator for you to translate before you post. It's not perfect, but it should help you:"

http://www.google.com/language_tools?hl=es
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#609 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:04 am

Thanks for posting that JPmia.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#610 Postby tolakram » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:08 am

Is it yesterday? Convection around rotating MLC-like feature waning, and increasing closer to what might be the future center?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#611 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:08 am

Is there any credence to the two system theory because there are two really nice areas of convection, or is that mass east of 93L related?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#612 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:10 am

Javlin wrote:Call me crazy but I remember about 4 runs ago the CMC coming up with some stupid solution with 2 systems coming out of this area :roll: and now I am wondering both are perkulating quite well this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html


cmc had split the energy yesterday, seemed reasonable then and seems reasonable now, we really need something to develop at the surface to get a clue although the momentum is west west and more west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#613 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:17 am

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Re:

#614 Postby fci » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:20 am

KatDaddy wrote:Invest 93L looking more organized. From Joe Bastardi's morning post:

So strap in, here we go. The tropics are bubbling and the lid is about to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.


Ah...... nice to see a little hype.
The Atlantic Tropical Season has arrived when the hype machine starts getting cranked up!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#615 Postby bvigal » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:32 am

Bocadude85 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

convection continues to fire

It does look like clouds building over area of interest. Here's the change in 4hrs.
Image
edit: That line through the picture is 75W
Last edited by bvigal on Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#616 Postby Javlin » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:40 am

Well it looks like the dominate area is at 17'N and 72.5'W some rotation going on there for sure but is it at the surface ??Not much in steering currents out there.

I like the unenhanced http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir4.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#617 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:45 am

Dr. Masters has posted his latest thoughts on 93L. Money line

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

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Re: Re:

#618 Postby Plant grower » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:49 am

fci wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:Invest 93L looking more organized. From Joe Bastardi's morning post:

So strap in, here we go. The tropics are bubbling and the lid is about to pop off for our first impact threat of the season.


Ah...... nice to see a little hype.
The Atlantic Tropical Season has arrived when the hype machine starts getting cranked up!!

can you post the link so I can read it. Can not find at accu weather
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#619 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:51 am

I guess that means there is a 80% chance we won't have a hurricane
in the GOM next week. I like those percentages.


clfenwi wrote:Dr. Masters has posted his latest thoughts on 93L. Money line

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#620 Postby petit_bois » Wed Jun 23, 2010 9:56 am

Stormcenter wrote:I guess that means there is a 80% chance we won't have a hurricane
in the GOM next week. I like those percentages.


clfenwi wrote:Dr. Masters has posted his latest thoughts on 93L. Money line

I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.




nope... there in a 80% chance that development won't happen in the next 48 hours....
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