Gave up worrying about the fix location, after 24hrs of surface maps denoting a future low (
22Jun 06z) resulted in nothing on the map after 24hrs (
23Jun 06z). What was evident is plenty of moisture, conditions conducive to development, and possibility of movement into the GOM, i.e. exact timing/fix maybe less important than the insistance of models the last 24hrs. We'll have to take these models with a grain of salt until there is at least a surface low to fix.
Latest look at
wv loop, the blob just SE of Haiti is building, while the others seem to be waning, which supports the 8am upgrade to 30% and the 12z fix. The models might look more plausible later today or tonight.